Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

September 2015 U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes

Prices for U.S. imports edged down 0.1 percent in September, after a 1.6-percent decrease in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The continued downward trend in nonfuel import prices more than offset an advance…

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Prices for U.S. imports edged down 0.1 percent in September, after a 1.6-percent decrease in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The continued downward trend in nonfuel import prices more than offset an advance in fuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports declined 0.7 percent in September, following a 1.4-percent drop the previous month.

Imports

All Imports: U.S. import prices fell 0.1 percent in September, following declines of 1.6 percent in August and 1.0 percent in July. Unlike the decreases the 2 previous months where falling fuel and nonfuel prices each contributed to the decline, the September drop was entirely driven by lower nonfuel prices. The price index for overall imports decreased 10.7 percent between September 2014 and September 2015 and has not recorded a 12-month increase since the index rose 0.9 percent for the year ended July 2014.

All Imports Excluding Fuel: The price index for nonfuel imports continued to trend downward in September, decreasing 0.3 percent following a 0.4-percent drop the previous month. Falling prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials; foods, feeds, and beverages; and capital goods more than offset a rise in consumer goods prices. Nonfuel import prices have not recorded a monthly advance since the index rose 0.1 percent in July 2014 and have declined 3.1 percent over the past year.

Fuel Imports: In contrast, prices for import fuel advanced 1.4 percent in September, after declining 11.1 percent in August and 6.4 percent in July. Both petroleum prices and natural gas prices contributed to the increase in September. Petroleum prices rose 1.1 percent, following an 11.8-percent decline in August and a 6.6-percent drop in July. The price index for natural gas advanced 9.3 percent in September, the largest monthly increase for the index since an 11.1-percent rise in December 2014. Despite the September advance, overall fuel prices declined 44.7 percent over the past 12 months. The drop was led by a 46.1- percent decrease in petroleum prices for the year ended in September, although a 27.3-percent drop in natural gas prices over the same period also factored into the overall decline.

Exports

All Exports: Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.7 percent in September, following a 1.4-percent drop the previous month. Falling agricultural and nonagricultural export prices each contributed to the September and August declines. The price index for overall exports fell 7.4 percent over the past year, the largest year- over-year decrease for the index since an 8.3-percent drop for the 12 months ended July 2009.

Agricultural Exports: Agricultural export prices declined 1.1 percent in September, after falling 2.5 percent in August. The decrease was mostly the result of an 8.3-percent drop in soybean prices, although a 4.3-percent decline in nut prices also contributed to falling export agricultural prices. The price index for agricultural exports decreased 13.5 percent for the year ended in September. Declining prices for meat, soybeans, and wheat over the past year primarily drove the drop.

All Exports Excluding Agriculture: Prices for nonagricultural exports declined 0.6 percent in September, following a 1.3-percent drop the previous month. The September decrease was led by declining prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods, and automotive vehicles. Overall nonagricultural prices fell 6.7 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month drop for the index since the index was first published in March 1985.

SELECTED SEPTEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

Import Prices

Imports by Locality of Origin: Prices for imports from China declined 0.2 percent in September and 1.3 percent over the past 12 months. The price index for imports from Japan recorded no change in September and has not increased on a monthly basis since the index rose 0.2 percent in March 2014. Prices for imports from Japan decreased 3.2 percent between September 2014 and September 2015. Import prices from the European Union declined 1.0 percent in September, the largest 1-month drop since a 1.6-percent decrease in January. The price indexes for imports from Canada and Mexico also fell in September, decreasing 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.

Nonfuel Industrial Supplies and Materials: The price index for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials fell 0.9 percent in September, following a 1.9-percent drop the previous month. Lower prices for chemicals, metals, and building materials led the decrease.

Finished Goods: Prices for the major finished goods categories were mixed in September. Import capital goods prices edged down 0.1 percent for the month and fell 2.3 percent over the past year. In contrast, prices for consumer goods ticked up 0.1 percent, after declines of 0.1 percent in August and 0.3 percent in July. The price index for automotive vehicles recorded no change in September.

Foods, Feeds, and Beverages: Foods, feeds, and beverages prices declined 0.8 percent in September, after rising 0.3 percent in August. Falling prices for food oils, feedstuff, fruit, fish, and coffee all contributed to the overall drop in September.

Transportation Services: Import air passenger fares declined 4.5 percent in September, following a 5.1- percent drop the previous month. The September decrease was driven by lower Asian and Latin American/Caribbean fares which more than offset rising European fares. Overall import air passenger fares fell 7.2 percent for the year ended in September. The price index for import air freight declined 2.0 percent for the second consecutive month in September. Import air freight prices decreased 10.4 percent over the past 12 months.

Export Prices

Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies and Materials: In September, the price index for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials fell 1.8 percent, after decreasing 3.7 percent in August. Both monthly declines were led by lower fuel prices which decreased 5.3 percent in September and 8.4 percent in August.

Finished Goods: Finished goods prices were mostly down in September. The price index for consumer goods declined 0.2 percent, following 0.4-percent decreases in August and July. Automotive vehicle prices also fell in September, declining 0.1 percent. Prices for capital goods recorded no change in both September and over the past year.

Transportation Services: Export air passenger fares decreased 10.8 percent in September, the largest monthly decline since the index fell 13.5 percent in February. The September drop was driven by a 23.2- percent decrease in Asian fares. Overall export air passenger fares fell 16.3 percent over the past 12 months. Export air freight prices declined 0.8 percent in September and 2.1 percent over the past year.

Import and Export Price Index data for October 2015 are scheduled for release on Tuesday, November 10, 2015 at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Original release Oct 9, 2015.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Distinguish trade prices from trade volumes

Import and export price indexes track prices of goods and selected services traded between the United States and other countries. They do not measure how much is traded or the trade balance. Read imports separately from exports and compare fuel with nonfuel import prices where available; also distinguish a monthly movement from a twelve-month change. These measures describe one part of the pricing environment, rather than the household consumer basket. The rate observations below do not establish how much of a later change came from this release. BLS Import and Export Price Indexes overview.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierSep 9, 2015Publication referenceOct 9, 201530 days laterNov 8, 2015
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®3.89%Observed 3.76%Observed −13 bps vs. earlier reference3.87%Observed +11 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the TreasuryUnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Jul 9, 2015 – Jan 9, 2016
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Oct 9, 2015Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.2.00%3.25%4.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 4.04% · Jul 9, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.09% · Jul 16, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.04% · Jul 23, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.98% · Jul 30, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.91% · Aug 6, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.94% · Aug 13, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.93% · Aug 20, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.84% · Aug 27, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.89% · Sep 3, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.90% · Sep 10, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.91% · Sep 17, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.86% · Sep 24, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.85% · Oct 1, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Oct 8, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.82% · Oct 15, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.79% · Oct 22, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Oct 29, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · Nov 5, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.98% · Nov 12, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Nov 19, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Nov 25, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.93% · Dec 3, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Dec 10, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Dec 17, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.96% · Dec 24, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.01% · Dec 31, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Jan 7, 201610-year Treasury: 2.24% · Jan 4, 201610-year Treasury: 2.25% · Jan 5, 201610-year Treasury: 2.18% · Jan 6, 201610-year Treasury: 2.16% · Jan 7, 201610-year Treasury: 2.13% · Jan 8, 2016Jul 9, 2015Oct 9, 2015Jan 9, 2016
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury5 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,391.05/month

3.76% · Oct 8, 2015

At the later reference$1,409.85/month

3.87% · Nov 5, 2015

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $18.80 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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