Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2022

Personal income increased $9.0 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in January, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent)…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

THE PRIMARY SOURCE

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $9.0 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in January, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $337.2 billion (2.1 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.5 percent in January and Real PCE increased 1.5 percent; goods increased 4.3 percent and services increased 0.1 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent (table 9).

The estimate for January personal income and outlays reflected the continued economic recovery and government response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In January, COVID-19 cases resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government social benefits decreased, primarily reflecting the end of advance Child Tax Credit payments authorized to be paid out through December by the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

The increase in personal income in January primarily reflected an increase in compensation that was partly offset by a decrease in government social benefits (table 3). Within compensation, the increase reflected increases in both private and government wages and salaries. Within government social benefits, a decrease in "other" social benefits (reflecting the end of advance Child Tax Credit payments as authorized by the American Rescue Plan) was partly offset by an increase in Social Security benefits (reflecting a 5.9 percent cost-of-living adjustment).

The $337.2 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in January reflected an increase of $285.4 billion in spending for goods and a $51.8 billion increase in spending for services (table 3). Within goods, increases were widespread, led by motor vehicles and parts, "other" nondurable goods, and recreational goods and vehicles. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for housing and utilities. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.

Personal outlays increased $342.2 billion in January (table 3). Personal saving was $1.17 trillion in January and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 6.4 percent (table 1).

The PCE price index for January increased 6.1 percent from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services (table 11). Energy prices increased 25.9 percent while food prices increased 6.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for January increased 5.2 percent from one year ago.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July through December 2021. For July through September, estimates for compensation, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance reflect the incorporation of updated third-quarter wage and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are provided below for November and December.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Feb 25, 2022.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierJan 26, 2022Publication referenceFeb 25, 202230 days laterMar 27, 2022
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®3.56%Observed 3.89%Observed +33 bps vs. earlier reference4.42%Observed +53 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury1.85%Observed 1.97%Observed +12 bps vs. earlier reference2.48%Observed +51 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Nov 25, 2021 – May 25, 2022
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Feb 25, 2022Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.1.00%3.25%5.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 3.11% · Dec 2, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.10% · Dec 9, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.12% · Dec 16, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.05% · Dec 23, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.11% · Dec 30, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.22% · Jan 6, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.45% · Jan 13, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.56% · Jan 20, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.55% · Jan 27, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.55% · Feb 3, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.69% · Feb 10, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.92% · Feb 17, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.89% · Feb 24, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Mar 3, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.85% · Mar 10, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 4.16% · Mar 17, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 4.42% · Mar 24, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 4.67% · Mar 31, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 4.72% · Apr 7, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.00% · Apr 14, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.11% · Apr 21, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.10% · Apr 28, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.27% · May 5, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.30% · May 12, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.25% · May 19, 202210-year Treasury: 1.48% · Nov 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Nov 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.43% · Nov 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.43% · Dec 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.44% · Dec 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.35% · Dec 3, 202110-year Treasury: 1.43% · Dec 6, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Dec 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Dec 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.49% · Dec 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Dec 10, 202110-year Treasury: 1.42% · Dec 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.44% · Dec 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.47% · Dec 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.44% · Dec 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.41% · Dec 17, 202110-year Treasury: 1.43% · Dec 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Dec 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.46% · Dec 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.50% · Dec 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Dec 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.49% · Dec 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.55% · Dec 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Dec 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Dec 31, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Jan 3, 202210-year Treasury: 1.66% · Jan 4, 202210-year Treasury: 1.71% · Jan 5, 202210-year Treasury: 1.73% · Jan 6, 202210-year Treasury: 1.76% · Jan 7, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Jan 10, 202210-year Treasury: 1.75% · Jan 11, 202210-year Treasury: 1.74% · Jan 12, 202210-year Treasury: 1.70% · Jan 13, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Jan 14, 202210-year Treasury: 1.87% · Jan 18, 202210-year Treasury: 1.83% · Jan 19, 202210-year Treasury: 1.83% · Jan 20, 202210-year Treasury: 1.75% · Jan 21, 202210-year Treasury: 1.75% · Jan 24, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Jan 25, 202210-year Treasury: 1.85% · Jan 26, 202210-year Treasury: 1.81% · Jan 27, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Jan 28, 202210-year Treasury: 1.79% · Jan 31, 202210-year Treasury: 1.81% · Feb 1, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Feb 2, 202210-year Treasury: 1.82% · Feb 3, 202210-year Treasury: 1.93% · Feb 4, 202210-year Treasury: 1.92% · Feb 7, 202210-year Treasury: 1.96% · Feb 8, 202210-year Treasury: 1.94% · Feb 9, 202210-year Treasury: 2.03% · Feb 10, 202210-year Treasury: 1.92% · Feb 11, 202210-year Treasury: 1.98% · Feb 14, 202210-year Treasury: 2.05% · Feb 15, 202210-year Treasury: 2.03% · Feb 16, 202210-year Treasury: 1.97% · Feb 17, 202210-year Treasury: 1.92% · Feb 18, 202210-year Treasury: 1.94% · Feb 22, 202210-year Treasury: 1.99% · Feb 23, 202210-year Treasury: 1.96% · Feb 24, 202210-year Treasury: 1.97% · Feb 25, 202210-year Treasury: 1.83% · Feb 28, 202210-year Treasury: 1.72% · Mar 1, 202210-year Treasury: 1.86% · Mar 2, 202210-year Treasury: 1.86% · Mar 3, 202210-year Treasury: 1.74% · Mar 4, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Mar 7, 202210-year Treasury: 1.86% · Mar 8, 202210-year Treasury: 1.94% · Mar 9, 202210-year Treasury: 1.98% · Mar 10, 202210-year Treasury: 2.00% · Mar 11, 202210-year Treasury: 2.14% · Mar 14, 202210-year Treasury: 2.15% · Mar 15, 202210-year Treasury: 2.19% · Mar 16, 202210-year Treasury: 2.20% · Mar 17, 202210-year Treasury: 2.14% · Mar 18, 202210-year Treasury: 2.32% · Mar 21, 202210-year Treasury: 2.38% · Mar 22, 202210-year Treasury: 2.32% · Mar 23, 202210-year Treasury: 2.34% · Mar 24, 202210-year Treasury: 2.48% · Mar 25, 202210-year Treasury: 2.46% · Mar 28, 202210-year Treasury: 2.41% · Mar 29, 202210-year Treasury: 2.35% · Mar 30, 202210-year Treasury: 2.32% · Mar 31, 202210-year Treasury: 2.39% · Apr 1, 202210-year Treasury: 2.42% · Apr 4, 202210-year Treasury: 2.54% · Apr 5, 202210-year Treasury: 2.61% · Apr 6, 202210-year Treasury: 2.66% · Apr 7, 202210-year Treasury: 2.72% · Apr 8, 202210-year Treasury: 2.79% · Apr 11, 202210-year Treasury: 2.72% · Apr 12, 202210-year Treasury: 2.70% · Apr 13, 202210-year Treasury: 2.83% · Apr 14, 202210-year Treasury: 2.85% · Apr 18, 202210-year Treasury: 2.93% · Apr 19, 202210-year Treasury: 2.85% · Apr 20, 202210-year Treasury: 2.90% · Apr 21, 202210-year Treasury: 2.90% · Apr 22, 202210-year Treasury: 2.81% · Apr 25, 202210-year Treasury: 2.77% · Apr 26, 202210-year Treasury: 2.82% · Apr 27, 202210-year Treasury: 2.85% · Apr 28, 202210-year Treasury: 2.89% · Apr 29, 202210-year Treasury: 2.99% · May 2, 202210-year Treasury: 2.97% · May 3, 202210-year Treasury: 2.93% · May 4, 202210-year Treasury: 3.05% · May 5, 202210-year Treasury: 3.12% · May 6, 202210-year Treasury: 3.05% · May 9, 202210-year Treasury: 2.99% · May 10, 202210-year Treasury: 2.91% · May 11, 202210-year Treasury: 2.84% · May 12, 202210-year Treasury: 2.93% · May 13, 202210-year Treasury: 2.88% · May 16, 202210-year Treasury: 2.98% · May 17, 202210-year Treasury: 2.89% · May 18, 202210-year Treasury: 2.84% · May 19, 202210-year Treasury: 2.78% · May 20, 202210-year Treasury: 2.86% · May 23, 202210-year Treasury: 2.76% · May 24, 202210-year Treasury: 2.75% · May 25, 2022Nov 25, 2021Feb 25, 2022May 25, 2022
30-year fixed mortgage25 observations10-year Treasury125 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,413.29/month

3.89% · Feb 24, 2022

At the later reference$1,505.83/month

4.42% · Mar 24, 2022

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $92.54 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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