Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, November 2021

Personal income increased $90.4 billion (0.4 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $70.4 billion (0.4 percent) and…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $90.4 billion (0.4 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $70.4 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $104.7 billion (0.6 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in November and Real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent; spending on services increased 0.5 percent and spending on goods decreased 0.8 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent (table 9).

The estimate for November personal income and outlays reflected the continued economic recovery and government response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Government social benefits increased in November, reflecting an increase in the Provider Relief Fund (extended by the American Rescue Plan) that was partly offset by declines in many other pandemic-assistance programs. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

The increase in personal income in November primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits (table 3). Within compensation, the increase reflected increases in both private and government wages and salaries. Within government social benefits, an increase in "other" benefits (notably, an increase in the Provider Relief Fund to health care nonprofits) was partly offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.

The $104.7 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in November reflected an increase of $97.4 billion in spending for services and a $7.4 billion increase in spending for goods (table 3). The increase in services was widespread, led by housing and utilities. Within goods, an increase in nondurable goods (mainly gasoline and other energy goods) was partly offset by a decrease in durable goods (led by recreational goods and vehicles as well as motor vehicles and parts). Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.

Personal outlays increased $106.3 billion in November (table 3). Personal saving was $1.25 trillion in November and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 6.9 percent (table 1).

The PCE price index for November increased 5.7 percent from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services (table 11). Energy prices increased 34.0 percent while food prices increased 5.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for November increased 4.7 percent from one year ago.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July through October. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are provided below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Dec 23, 2021.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierNov 23, 2021Publication referenceDec 23, 202130 days laterJan 22, 2022
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®3.10%Observed 3.05%Observed −5 bps vs. earlier reference3.56%Observed +51 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury1.67%Observed 1.50%Observed −17 bps vs. earlier reference1.75%Observed +25 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Sep 23, 2021 – Mar 23, 2022
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Dec 23, 2021Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.1.00%2.75%4.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 2.88% · Sep 23, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.01% · Sep 30, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.99% · Oct 7, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.05% · Oct 14, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.09% · Oct 21, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.14% · Oct 28, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.09% · Nov 4, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.98% · Nov 10, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.10% · Nov 18, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.10% · Nov 24, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.11% · Dec 2, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.10% · Dec 9, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.12% · Dec 16, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.05% · Dec 23, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.11% · Dec 30, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.22% · Jan 6, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.45% · Jan 13, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.56% · Jan 20, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.55% · Jan 27, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.55% · Feb 3, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.69% · Feb 10, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.92% · Feb 17, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.89% · Feb 24, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Mar 3, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 3.85% · Mar 10, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 4.16% · Mar 17, 202210-year Treasury: 1.41% · Sep 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.47% · Sep 24, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Sep 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.54% · Sep 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.55% · Sep 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Sep 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Oct 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.49% · Oct 4, 202110-year Treasury: 1.54% · Oct 5, 202110-year Treasury: 1.53% · Oct 6, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · Oct 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.61% · Oct 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.59% · Oct 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.56% · Oct 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Oct 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.59% · Oct 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.59% · Oct 18, 202110-year Treasury: 1.65% · Oct 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.65% · Oct 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.68% · Oct 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.66% · Oct 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · Oct 25, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Oct 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.54% · Oct 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.57% · Oct 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.55% · Oct 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · Nov 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.56% · Nov 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.60% · Nov 3, 202110-year Treasury: 1.53% · Nov 4, 202110-year Treasury: 1.45% · Nov 5, 202110-year Treasury: 1.51% · Nov 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.46% · Nov 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.56% · Nov 10, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · Nov 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Nov 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Nov 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.60% · Nov 17, 202110-year Treasury: 1.59% · Nov 18, 202110-year Treasury: 1.54% · Nov 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Nov 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.67% · Nov 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · Nov 24, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Nov 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Nov 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.43% · Nov 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.43% · Dec 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.44% · Dec 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.35% · Dec 3, 202110-year Treasury: 1.43% · Dec 6, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Dec 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Dec 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.49% · Dec 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Dec 10, 202110-year Treasury: 1.42% · Dec 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.44% · Dec 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.47% · Dec 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.44% · Dec 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.41% · Dec 17, 202110-year Treasury: 1.43% · Dec 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Dec 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.46% · Dec 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.50% · Dec 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Dec 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.49% · Dec 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.55% · Dec 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Dec 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Dec 31, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Jan 3, 202210-year Treasury: 1.66% · Jan 4, 202210-year Treasury: 1.71% · Jan 5, 202210-year Treasury: 1.73% · Jan 6, 202210-year Treasury: 1.76% · Jan 7, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Jan 10, 202210-year Treasury: 1.75% · Jan 11, 202210-year Treasury: 1.74% · Jan 12, 202210-year Treasury: 1.70% · Jan 13, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Jan 14, 202210-year Treasury: 1.87% · Jan 18, 202210-year Treasury: 1.83% · Jan 19, 202210-year Treasury: 1.83% · Jan 20, 202210-year Treasury: 1.75% · Jan 21, 202210-year Treasury: 1.75% · Jan 24, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Jan 25, 202210-year Treasury: 1.85% · Jan 26, 202210-year Treasury: 1.81% · Jan 27, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Jan 28, 202210-year Treasury: 1.79% · Jan 31, 202210-year Treasury: 1.81% · Feb 1, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Feb 2, 202210-year Treasury: 1.82% · Feb 3, 202210-year Treasury: 1.93% · Feb 4, 202210-year Treasury: 1.92% · Feb 7, 202210-year Treasury: 1.96% · Feb 8, 202210-year Treasury: 1.94% · Feb 9, 202210-year Treasury: 2.03% · Feb 10, 202210-year Treasury: 1.92% · Feb 11, 202210-year Treasury: 1.98% · Feb 14, 202210-year Treasury: 2.05% · Feb 15, 202210-year Treasury: 2.03% · Feb 16, 202210-year Treasury: 1.97% · Feb 17, 202210-year Treasury: 1.92% · Feb 18, 202210-year Treasury: 1.94% · Feb 22, 202210-year Treasury: 1.99% · Feb 23, 202210-year Treasury: 1.96% · Feb 24, 202210-year Treasury: 1.97% · Feb 25, 202210-year Treasury: 1.83% · Feb 28, 202210-year Treasury: 1.72% · Mar 1, 202210-year Treasury: 1.86% · Mar 2, 202210-year Treasury: 1.86% · Mar 3, 202210-year Treasury: 1.74% · Mar 4, 202210-year Treasury: 1.78% · Mar 7, 202210-year Treasury: 1.86% · Mar 8, 202210-year Treasury: 1.94% · Mar 9, 202210-year Treasury: 1.98% · Mar 10, 202210-year Treasury: 2.00% · Mar 11, 202210-year Treasury: 2.14% · Mar 14, 202210-year Treasury: 2.15% · Mar 15, 202210-year Treasury: 2.19% · Mar 16, 202210-year Treasury: 2.20% · Mar 17, 202210-year Treasury: 2.14% · Mar 18, 202210-year Treasury: 2.32% · Mar 21, 202210-year Treasury: 2.38% · Mar 22, 202210-year Treasury: 2.32% · Mar 23, 2022Sep 23, 2021Dec 23, 2021Mar 23, 2022
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations10-year Treasury124 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,272.92/month

3.05% · Dec 23, 2021

At the later reference$1,357.20/month

3.56% · Jan 20, 2022

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $84.29 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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