Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2015 (second estimate)

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 0.7 percent. With this second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; private inventory investment decreased less than previously estimated (see "Revisions" on page 2).

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment, in state and local government spending, and in exports that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, a downturn in imports, and an acceleration in federal government spending.

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the third.

_____ FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 2.0 percent, or $88.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $18,148.4 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.3 percent, or $146.5 billion.

Revisions

The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected an upward revision to private inventory investment and a downward revision to imports that were partly offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending and to personal consumption expenditures. For more information, see the Technical Note. For information on revisions, see "The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."

Advance Estimate Second Estimate

2015 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015 annual level), the same rate as in 2014.

The increase in real GDP in 2015 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Comparing real GDP growth in 2015 with growth in 2014, real GDP increased 2.4 percent in both years, though there were offsetting movements in the components. Decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports and an acceleration in imports were offset by accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and accelerations in private inventory investment and in state and local government spending.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.4 percent in 2015, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2014.

Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $594.8 billion, in 2015 to a level of $17,942.9 billion, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent, or $684.9 billion, in 2014.

During 2015 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015), real GDP increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2014. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.4 percent during 2015, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent during 2014.