Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2016 (advance estimate)

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 4). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 27, 2016.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected a larger decrease in nonresidential fixed investment, a deceleration in PCE, a downturn in federal government spending, an upturn in imports, and larger decreases in private inventory investment and in exports that were partly offset by an upturn in state and local government spending and an acceleration in residential fixed investment.

BOX____ Upcoming Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts

The annual revision of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2016, will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2016 on July 29. For more information, see the Technical Note.

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 0.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the fourth. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.3 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in the fourth. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent.

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 1.2 percent, or $56.3 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $18,221.1 billion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 2.3 percent, or $104.6 billion.

Disposition of personal income

Current-dollar personal income increased $130.8 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $117.4 billion in the fourth. The acceleration in personal income primarily reflected an upturn in personal interest income and an acceleration in personal current transfer receipts that were partly offset by a downturn in personal dividend income.

Personal current taxes increased $24.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $28.4 billion in the fourth.

Disposable personal income increased $106.5 billion, or 3.2 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $89.0 billion, or 2.7 percent, in the fourth. Real disposable personal income increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent.

Personal outlays increased $72.5 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $90.9 billion in the fourth.

Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $712.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with $678.3 billion in the fourth.

The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with 5.0 percent in the fourth. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.

BOX_____ Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."

* * * BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.