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Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 26, 2016.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in federal government spending.
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the third.
_____ FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 1.5 percent, or $68.1 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $18,128.2 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.3 percent, or $146.5 billion.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $137.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $190.8 billion in the third. The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected a downturn in personal interest income and decelerations in wages and salaries and in farm proprietors’ income.
Personal current taxes increased $25.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $22.3 billion in the third.
Disposable personal income increased $111.3 billion, or 3.3 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $168.5 billion, or 5.1 percent, in the third. Real disposable personal income increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent.
Personal outlays increased $72.6 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $131.7 billion in the third.
Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $739.3 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $700.6 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
2015 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015 annual level), the same rate as in 2014.
The increase in real GDP in 2015 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Comparing real GDP growth in 2015 with growth in 2014, real GDP increased 2.4 percent in both years, though there were offsetting movements in the components. Decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports and an acceleration in imports were offset by accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and accelerations in private inventory investment and in state and local government spending.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent in 2015, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2014.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $589.8 billion, in 2015 to a level of $17,937.8 billion, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent, or $684.9 billion, in 2014.
During 2015 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015), real GDP increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2014. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent during 2015, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent during 2014.
______ BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Jan 29, 2016.
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