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Economy · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

2018 Fourth Quarter (Preliminary) Productivity and Costs

Manufacturing sector labor productivity increased 1.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.3 percent and hours worked increased 1.0 percent. (All quarterly…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain source. Statistical tables, standard technical appendices, administrative material and attendance rosters are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's historical context and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete document.

Fourth Quarter and Annual Averages 2018, Preliminary

Manufacturing sector labor productivity increased 1.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.3 percent and hours worked increased 1.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018, manufacturing productivity increased 0.7 percent, reflecting a 2.8-percent increase in output and a 2.1-percent increase in hours worked. (See tables A1 and 3.) Annual average productivity increased 0.6 percent from 2017 to 2018. (See table C1.)

Durable manufacturing labor productivity increased 2.6 percent, with output increasing 5.7 percent and hours increasing 3.0 percent. Labor productivity in the nondurable manufacturing sector increased 1.2 percent, with output declining 1.2 percent and hours declining 2.4 percent. (See tables A1, 4, and 5.)

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Revised measures

Revised and previously published measures for the third quarter of 2018 are shown in tables A2 and B1 and cover the following major sectors: nonfarm business, business, manufacturing, and nonfinancial corporations.

In the third quarter of 2018, nonfarm business productivity was revised down 0.1 percentage point, to an increase of 2.2 percent. (See table B1.) Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.9 percent in the third quarter, the same rate as previously reported.

In the manufacturing sector, productivity was revised up 0.1 percentage point, to an increase of 1.1 percent. Manufacturing unit labor costs decreased 1.3 percent, a 0.1-percentage point downward revision from the previously reported figure.

In the nonfinancial corporate sector, productivity was revised up 0.6 percentage point in the third quarter of 2018, to an increase of 6.1 percent--the largest increase since a 6.7-percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2012. This upward revision to productivity is due primarily to a 0.6-percentage point upward revision to output, with a small contribution from a 0.1-percentage point downward revision to hours. (See table A2.)

Annual averages

Quarterly and annual data, where available, for all sectors from 2016 to 2018 appear in tables 1-6. Full historical measures can be found on the Productivity and Costs home page: www.bls.gov/lpc/#data.

Data in this release do not reflect the annual benchmark revision of the BLS Current Employment Statistics program data released February 1, 2019. This benchmark will be incorporated in our next release on March 7, 2019.

Nonfarm business Previous quarter N.A. N.A. 1.6 N.A. N.A. N.A. A year ago N.A. N.A. 1.9 N.A. N.A. N.A.

Business Previous quarter N.A. N.A. 1.7 N.A. N.A. N.A. A year ago N.A. N.A. 1.8 N.A. N.A. N.A.

Manufacturing Previous quarter 1.3 2.3 1.0 N.A. N.A. N.A. A Year ago 0.7 2.8 2.1 N.A. N.A. N.A.

Durable Previous quarter 2.6 5.7 3.0 N.A. N.A. N.A. manufacturing A year ago 1.3 4.4 3.1 N.A. N.A. N.A.

Nondurable Previous quarter 1.2 -1.2 -2.4 N.A. N.A. N.A. manufacturing A year ago 0.7 1.1 0.4 N.A. N.A. N.A.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Original release Feb 6, 2019.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate output per hour from compensation per unit

Labor productivity measures real output per hour worked. Unit labor costs relate labor compensation to output, so a change in hourly pay alone does not describe the change in cost per unit produced. Check the sector, whether a quarterly percentage change has been annualized, and how it differs from the change over four quarters. Revisions to output and hours can alter earlier estimates. Productivity and costs help describe the economy’s supply conditions; the historical rate comparison does not measure this release’s isolated effect. BLS Productivity and Costs.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierJan 7, 2019Publication referenceFeb 6, 201930 days laterMar 8, 2019
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®4.51%Observed 4.46%Observed −5 bps vs. earlier reference4.41%Observed −5 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury2.70%Observed 2.70%Observed Unchanged vs. earlier reference2.62%Observed −8 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Nov 6, 2018 – May 6, 2019
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Feb 6, 2019Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.2.00%3.50%5.00%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 4.94% · Nov 8, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.94% · Nov 15, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.81% · Nov 21, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.81% · Nov 29, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.75% · Dec 6, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.63% · Dec 13, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.62% · Dec 20, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.55% · Dec 27, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.51% · Jan 3, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.45% · Jan 10, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.45% · Jan 17, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.45% · Jan 24, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.46% · Jan 31, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.41% · Feb 7, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.37% · Feb 14, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.35% · Feb 21, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.35% · Feb 28, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.41% · Mar 7, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.31% · Mar 14, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.28% · Mar 21, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.06% · Mar 28, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.08% · Apr 4, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.12% · Apr 11, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.17% · Apr 18, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.20% · Apr 25, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.14% · May 2, 201910-year Treasury: 3.22% · Nov 6, 201810-year Treasury: 3.22% · Nov 7, 201810-year Treasury: 3.24% · Nov 8, 201810-year Treasury: 3.19% · Nov 9, 201810-year Treasury: 3.14% · Nov 13, 201810-year Treasury: 3.12% · Nov 14, 201810-year Treasury: 3.11% · Nov 15, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Nov 16, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 19, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 20, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 21, 201810-year Treasury: 3.05% · Nov 23, 201810-year Treasury: 3.07% · Nov 26, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 27, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 28, 201810-year Treasury: 3.03% · Nov 29, 201810-year Treasury: 3.01% · Nov 30, 201810-year Treasury: 2.98% · Dec 3, 201810-year Treasury: 2.91% · Dec 4, 201810-year Treasury: 2.87% · Dec 6, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Dec 7, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Dec 10, 201810-year Treasury: 2.89% · Dec 11, 201810-year Treasury: 2.91% · Dec 12, 201810-year Treasury: 2.91% · Dec 13, 201810-year Treasury: 2.89% · Dec 14, 201810-year Treasury: 2.86% · Dec 17, 201810-year Treasury: 2.82% · Dec 18, 201810-year Treasury: 2.77% · Dec 19, 201810-year Treasury: 2.79% · Dec 20, 201810-year Treasury: 2.79% · Dec 21, 201810-year Treasury: 2.74% · Dec 24, 201810-year Treasury: 2.81% · Dec 26, 201810-year Treasury: 2.77% · Dec 27, 201810-year Treasury: 2.72% · Dec 28, 201810-year Treasury: 2.69% · Dec 31, 201810-year Treasury: 2.66% · Jan 2, 201910-year Treasury: 2.56% · Jan 3, 201910-year Treasury: 2.67% · Jan 4, 201910-year Treasury: 2.70% · Jan 7, 201910-year Treasury: 2.73% · Jan 8, 201910-year Treasury: 2.74% · Jan 9, 201910-year Treasury: 2.74% · Jan 10, 201910-year Treasury: 2.71% · Jan 11, 201910-year Treasury: 2.71% · Jan 14, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Jan 15, 201910-year Treasury: 2.73% · Jan 16, 201910-year Treasury: 2.75% · Jan 17, 201910-year Treasury: 2.79% · Jan 18, 201910-year Treasury: 2.74% · Jan 22, 201910-year Treasury: 2.76% · Jan 23, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Jan 24, 201910-year Treasury: 2.76% · Jan 25, 201910-year Treasury: 2.75% · Jan 28, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Jan 29, 201910-year Treasury: 2.70% · Jan 30, 201910-year Treasury: 2.63% · Jan 31, 201910-year Treasury: 2.70% · Feb 1, 201910-year Treasury: 2.73% · Feb 4, 201910-year Treasury: 2.71% · Feb 5, 201910-year Treasury: 2.70% · Feb 6, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 7, 201910-year Treasury: 2.63% · Feb 8, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 11, 201910-year Treasury: 2.68% · Feb 12, 201910-year Treasury: 2.71% · Feb 13, 201910-year Treasury: 2.66% · Feb 14, 201910-year Treasury: 2.66% · Feb 15, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 19, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 20, 201910-year Treasury: 2.69% · Feb 21, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 22, 201910-year Treasury: 2.67% · Feb 25, 201910-year Treasury: 2.64% · Feb 26, 201910-year Treasury: 2.69% · Feb 27, 201910-year Treasury: 2.73% · Feb 28, 201910-year Treasury: 2.76% · Mar 1, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Mar 4, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Mar 5, 201910-year Treasury: 2.69% · Mar 6, 201910-year Treasury: 2.64% · Mar 7, 201910-year Treasury: 2.62% · Mar 8, 201910-year Treasury: 2.64% · Mar 11, 201910-year Treasury: 2.61% · Mar 12, 201910-year Treasury: 2.61% · Mar 13, 201910-year Treasury: 2.63% · Mar 14, 201910-year Treasury: 2.59% · Mar 15, 201910-year Treasury: 2.60% · Mar 18, 201910-year Treasury: 2.61% · Mar 19, 201910-year Treasury: 2.54% · Mar 20, 201910-year Treasury: 2.54% · Mar 21, 201910-year Treasury: 2.44% · Mar 22, 201910-year Treasury: 2.43% · Mar 25, 201910-year Treasury: 2.41% · Mar 26, 201910-year Treasury: 2.39% · Mar 27, 201910-year Treasury: 2.39% · Mar 28, 201910-year Treasury: 2.41% · Mar 29, 201910-year Treasury: 2.49% · Apr 1, 201910-year Treasury: 2.48% · Apr 2, 201910-year Treasury: 2.52% · Apr 3, 201910-year Treasury: 2.51% · Apr 4, 201910-year Treasury: 2.50% · Apr 5, 201910-year Treasury: 2.52% · Apr 8, 201910-year Treasury: 2.51% · Apr 9, 201910-year Treasury: 2.48% · Apr 10, 201910-year Treasury: 2.51% · Apr 11, 201910-year Treasury: 2.56% · Apr 12, 201910-year Treasury: 2.55% · Apr 15, 201910-year Treasury: 2.60% · Apr 16, 201910-year Treasury: 2.59% · Apr 17, 201910-year Treasury: 2.57% · Apr 18, 201910-year Treasury: 2.59% · Apr 22, 201910-year Treasury: 2.57% · Apr 23, 201910-year Treasury: 2.53% · Apr 24, 201910-year Treasury: 2.54% · Apr 25, 201910-year Treasury: 2.51% · Apr 26, 201910-year Treasury: 2.54% · Apr 29, 201910-year Treasury: 2.51% · Apr 30, 201910-year Treasury: 2.52% · May 1, 201910-year Treasury: 2.55% · May 2, 201910-year Treasury: 2.54% · May 3, 201910-year Treasury: 2.51% · May 6, 2019Nov 6, 2018Feb 6, 2019May 6, 2019
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations10-year Treasury122 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,512.93/month

4.46% · Jan 31, 2019

At the later reference$1,504.06/month

4.41% · Mar 7, 2019

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $8.88 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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