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Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

December 1995 U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes

The U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.5 percent in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The increase was attributable to a rise in petroleum prices. The U.S. Export Price Index was…

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-DECEMBER 1995-

The U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.5 percent in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The increase was attributable to a rise in petroleum prices. The U.S. Export Price Index was unchanged in December, after falling 0.2 percent in November.

Dec. 1993-94 5.3 20.3 3.8 3.8 -0.2 4.3 Dec. 1994-95 2.6 5.4 2.3 3.3 17.3 1.6

For the year ended in December, the import price index gained 2.6 percent, about half the increase recorded over the previous 12- month period. Over the past year, export prices rose 3.3 percent, a slight deceleration from the 3.8 percent increase posted during the December 1993-94 period.

Import Goods

Petroleum prices advanced 4.3 percent in December after dropping 11.7 percent over the prior 6 months. For the year ended in December, the index for petroleum imports rose 5.4 percent following a larger gain of 20.3 percent over the previous year. The index for all imports excluding petroleum was unchanged in December and up 2.3 percent over the past year. The previous 12-month increase was 3.8 percent.

The index for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials rose 0.2 percent in December after recording modest declines in the previous 2 months. Over the past year, the index gained 6.7 percent, led by price increases for paper and paper based stocks. Prices for consumer goods also rose, increasing 0.5 percent in December and 1.7 percent for the year.

In contrast, the food, feeds, and beverages index fell 0.3 percent in December and declined 2.7 percent on an annual basis. The indexes for autos and capital goods edged down 0.1 percent each in December, and posted gains over the past 12 months of 2.2 and 1.0 percent, respectively.

Export Goods

Agricultural export prices rose for the fourth consecutive month, increasing 0.9 percent in December. For the year ended in December, prices rose 17.3 percent, the largest annual gain recorded since this series began in 1985. Price increases for cereals and oilseeds had the largest impact. In contrast, the index for nonagricultural exports edged down 0.1 percent in December, after recording average monthly declines of 0.3 percent over the previous 5 months. For the year ended in December the index increased 1.6 percent following a 4.3 percent increase for the December 1993-94 period.

The index for industrial supplies and materials rose 0.2 percent in December, reversing a 6-month downward trend during which prices fell 5.3 percent. Due to strong gains posted over the first 5 months, the index rose 1.6 percent for the year.

All the indexes for finished goods either decreased slightly or were unchanged in December. Prices for autos and consumer goods were unchanged this month and rose on an annual basis 1.7 and 1.5 percent, respectively. The capital goods index, which accounts for 40 percent of aggregate exports, edged down 0.1 percent in December. Since December 1994, this index rose 1.5 percent after falling 1.1 percent the previous year.

Summary of annual percent changes 12 months ended in December

Imports by Locality of Origin

The price index for imports from Japan moved lower in December, decreasing 0.4 percent after a 0.3 percent increase in the previous month. For the year ended in December, prices for goods from Japan rose 2.9 percent, the smallest annual increase in the past 3 years. The index for imports from the European Union increased 0.2 percent in December following a 0.6 percent increase in the previous month. Over the past 12 months, this index rose 4.5 percent. Prices of goods imported from Canada rose for the second consecutive month, increasing 0.3 percent in December. Over the past year, this index gained 5.0 percent. The index for goods from the Asian Newly Industrialized Countries also rose on an annual basis, increasing 0.6 percent, but had a slight downturn in December of 0.3 percent.

Import and Export Services

The Import Air Freight Index edged up 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter. Both the Atlantic and Pacific regions contributed to the increase with gains of 1.5 and 3.9 percent, respectively. Over the year, the Import Air Freight Index rose 3.7 percent with a 4.1 percent increase in the Atlantic region and a 5.6 percent rise in the Pacific region.

The Import and Export Air Passenger Fares Indexes decreased this quarter by 4.4 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively. The decline in the Import Air Passenger Fares Index was led by a 6.5 percent drop in the Atlantic region and a 2.6 percent decline in the Pacific region. Decreases of 7.5 percent in the Atlantic region and 4.9 percent in the Pacific region both contributed to the downward movement in the Export Air Passenger Fares Index. Annually, the Import Air Passenger Fares Index rose 5.2 percent and the Export Air Passenger Fares Index increased by 2.3 percent.

The Import Crude Oil Tanker Freight Index posted a 9.8 percent increase this quarter led by a 16.8 percent gain in the Gulf region. The increase was tempered by an 8.8 percent decline in the Atlantic region. For the year, the Import Crude Oil Tanker Freight Index rose 29.8 percent due to a significant increase in the Gulf region of 48.3 percent.

Import Ocean Liner Freight moved slightly lower this quarter, down 0.4 percent reflecting declines of 0.2 percent in the U.S. East Coast and 0.7 percent in the U.S. West Coast regions. Over the year, the Import Ocean Liner Freight Index gained 7.1 percent with increases in both the U.S. East and U.S. West Coasts.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Original release Feb 14, 1996.

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MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Distinguish trade prices from trade volumes

Import and export price indexes track prices of goods and selected services traded between the United States and other countries. They do not measure how much is traded or the trade balance. Read imports separately from exports and compare fuel with nonfuel import prices where available; also distinguish a monthly movement from a twelve-month change. These measures describe one part of the pricing environment, rather than the household consumer basket. The rate observations below do not establish how much of a later change came from this release. BLS Import and Export Price Indexes overview.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierJan 15, 1996Publication referenceFeb 14, 199630 days laterMar 15, 1996
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®7.08%Observed 7.02%Observed −6 bps vs. earlier reference7.83%Observed +81 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the TreasuryUnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Nov 14, 1995 – May 14, 1996
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Feb 14, 1996Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.6.50%7.50%8.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 7.35% · Nov 17, 199530-year fixed mortgage: 7.35% · Nov 24, 199530-year fixed mortgage: 7.33% · Dec 1, 199530-year fixed mortgage: 7.18% · Dec 8, 199530-year fixed mortgage: 7.15% · Dec 15, 199530-year fixed mortgage: 7.23% · Dec 22, 199530-year fixed mortgage: 7.11% · Dec 29, 199530-year fixed mortgage: 7.02% · Jan 5, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.08% · Jan 12, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.02% · Jan 19, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.00% · Jan 26, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.02% · Feb 2, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.02% · Feb 9, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 6.94% · Feb 16, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.32% · Feb 23, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.41% · Mar 1, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.38% · Mar 8, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.83% · Mar 15, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.81% · Mar 22, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.69% · Mar 29, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.78% · Apr 5, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 8.05% · Apr 12, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.95% · Apr 19, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.92% · Apr 26, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.99% · May 3, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 8.24% · May 10, 1996Nov 14, 1995Feb 14, 1996May 14, 1996
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,999.94/month

7.02% · Feb 9, 1996

At the later reference$2,165.85/month

7.83% · Mar 15, 1996

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $165.91 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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