December 2016 Consumer Price Index

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain source. Statistical tables, standard technical appendices, administrative material and attendance rosters are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's historical context and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete document.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Continuing their recent trends, the shelter and gasoline indexes increased in December and were largely responsible for the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in December, while the gasoline index increased 3.0 percent.

Recent trends also continued in the food indexes, as the food at home index again declined, offsetting an increase in the index for food away from home and leaving the overall food index unchanged for the sixth consecutive month. The energy index continued to rise, advancing 1.5 percent in December, primarily due to an increase in the gasoline index.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in December, the same increase as in November. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, medical care, education, airline fares, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles were among the indexes that increased. The indexes for apparel and communication declined in December.

The all items index rose 2.1 percent for the 12 months ending December. This figure has been steadily rising since July, and is the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 2014. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending December, and the energy index increased 5.4 percent. In contrast, the food index declined 0.2 percent over the last 12 months.

Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month Un- adjusted 12-mos. June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. ended 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 Dec. 2016

Food

The food index was unchanged in December. The food at home index continued to decline, falling 0.2 percent, its eighth consecutive decrease. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes fell in December. The fruits and vegetables index posted the largest decline, falling 1.1 percent as the index for fresh fruits declined 2.2 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs fell 0.4 percent in December as the beef index fell 0.8 percent and the index for eggs decreased 3.9 percent. The index for nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.3 percent, and the cereals and bakery products index declined 0.1 percent.

The index for dairy and related products increased 0.4 percent in December after falling in November, and the index for other food at home rose 0.3 percent. The index for food away from home also increased, rising 0.2 percent following a 0.1 percent increase in November.

Energy

The energy index rose 1.5 percent in December, its fourth straight increase. The gasoline index, which rose 2.7 percent in November, increased 3.0 percent in December. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 1.8 percent in December.) The electricity index remained unchanged in December. The index for natural gas fell 0.4 percent in December, its second straight decline following 4 months of increases.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in December. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in December, the same increase as in November, with the indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent both repeating their November increases of 0.3 percent. The index for motor vehicle insurance rose 0.8 percent in December following a 1.0 percent rise the prior month. The medical care index, which was unchanged in October and November, rose 0.2 percent in December. The hospital services index rose 0.3 percent, and the index for prescription drugs increased 0.2 percent.

The education index also increased in December, rising 0.5 percent. The index for airline fares increased 1.9 percent after declining in November. The index for used cars and trucks rose 0.5 percent, its largest increase since April 2015. The index for new vehicles increased slightly, rising 0.1 percent after falling 0.1 percent in November. Also increasing in December were the indexes for tobacco (0.4 percent), personal care (0.3 percent), household furnishings and operations (0.1 percent), and alcoholic beverages (0.1 percent).

The recreation index was unchanged in December. The apparel index, which fell 0.5 percent in November, declined 0.7 percent in December. The communication index also fell in December, decreasing 0.1 percent.

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 241.432 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index was unchanged prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.0 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 235.390 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 2.0 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index was unchanged on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.

Year in Review

The CPI rose 2.1 percent in 2016, a larger increase than the 0.8 percent rise in 2014 and the 0.7 percent advance in 2015. This also represented a larger increase than the 1.8 percent average annual increase over the past 10 years.

The food index declined in 2016, falling 0.2 percent. This was its first yearly decline since 2009. The food at home index, which fell 0.4 percent in 2015, decreased 2.0 percent in 2016. This is the first time the food at home index declined in consecutive years since it declined four years in a row from 1952 through 1955.

All six major grocery store food group indexes declined in 2016. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which declined 2.2 percent in 2015, fell 5.4 percent in 2016, with the index for eggs declining 33.8 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables fell 2.4 percent in 2016 after rising in 2015. The dairy and related products index fell 1.3 percent in 2016 following a 3.9-percent decline in 2015. The indexes for nonalcoholic beverages, cereals and bakery products, and other food at home all posted small declines in 2016 after rising in 2015.

The index for food away from home rose 2.3 percent in 2016 after a 2.6-percent increase the prior year. Over the last 10 years, the food index rose at an annual rate of 2.3 percent. The food at home index rose at a 2.0 percent rate, and the food away from home index increased at a 2.7 percent rate since December 2006.

The energy index rose 5.4 percent in 2016 after declining in 2015 and 2014. The gasoline index increased 9.1 percent in 2016 after sharp decreases in 2015 and 2014. The index for natural gas also turned up in 2016, rising 7.8 percent after a 14.9-percent decline the prior year. The electricity index rose modestly in 2016, increasing 0.7 percent after a 1.2-percent decline in 2015. The energy index rose at a 0.4 percent annual rate over the past 10 years.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent in 2016, similar to its 2.1-percent increase in 2015. The shelter index continued to steadily accelerate, rising 3.6 percent in 2016 after increasing 3.2 percent in 2015, 2.9 percent in 2014, and 2.5 percent in 2013. The rent index rose 4.0 percent in 2016, while the index for owners' equivalent rent increased 3.6 percent.

The medical care index, which rose 2.6 percent in 2015, increased 4.1 percent in 2016. This was its largest December-to-December increase since 2007. The index for prescription drugs rose 6.2 percent, and the hospital services index increased 4.4 percent. The index for motor vehicle insurance rose 7.0 percent in 2016, its largest annual rise since 2002.

The education index increased 2.7 percent in 2016, compared to a 3.7-percent rise the prior year. The index for tobacco rose 3.6 percent, and the alcoholic beverages index increased 1.4 percent. The recreation index rose 0.8 percent in 2016, similar to its 2015 advance of 0.7 percent. The index for new vehicles also continued to rise modestly, increasing 0.3 percent in 2016 following a 0.2-percent increase in 2015 and a 0.5-percent advance in 2014.

Several indexes declined in 2016. The index for airline fares fell for the fourth year in a row, falling 4.7 percent. The index for used cars and trucks, which increased in 2015, fell 3.5 percent in 2016. The index for communication fell for the seventh year in a row, falling 2.6 percent, and the index for household furnishings and operations declined 1.1 percent. The apparel index declined slightly in 2016, falling 0.1 percent, its third consecutive yearly decline.

Consumer Price Index Geographic Revision for 2018

In January 2018, BLS will introduce a new geographic area sample for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The 2018 revision utilizes the 2010 Decennial Census and incorporates an updated area sample design, changes the frequency of publication for several local area indexes, and establishes some new local area and aggregate indexes. The first indexes using the new structure will be published in February 2018. Additional information on the geographic revision is available at: www.bls.gov/cpi/georevision2018.htm.

Recalculated Seasonally Adjusted Indexes to be Available on February 13, 2017

Each year with the release of the January CPI, seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated to reflect price movements from the just-completed calendar year. This routine annual recalculation may result in revisions to seasonally adjusted indexes for the previous 5 years. BLS will make available recalculated seasonally adjusted indexes, as well as recalculated seasonal adjustment factors, for the period January 2012 through December 2016, on Monday, February 13, 2017 at 8:30 a.m. (EST), two days before the scheduled release of the January 2017 CPI on Wednesday, February 15, 2017.

For additional information, please contact us at (202) 691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov.

A Note on the Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

Introduction

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS Seasonal Adjustment Method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are used to revise the previous five years of seasonally adjusted data. For more information on data revisions and exceptions to the usual revision schedule, please see the Fact Sheet on Seasonal Adjustment (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisaqanda.htm) and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiseastimeline.htm).

How to Use Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year. The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.

Intervention Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of price change. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.

2016 Series Adjusted Using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment

For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2016, BLS adjusted 37 series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels and natural gas. For example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset the effects of events such as the response in crude oil markets to the worldwide economic downturn in 2008.

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average All items index levels, are subject to revision for up to five years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last five years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last five years of data are considered to be final and not subject to revision. In January 2016, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2011-2015 were calculated and published. For directly adjusted series, the seasonal factors for 2015 will be applied to data in 2016 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2016 indexes.

Determining Seasonal Status

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status: from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last five years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. 28 of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2016.

Contact Information

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please contact us at (202)691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov. If you have general questions about the CPI, please call our information staff at (202) 691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.

Facilities for Sensory Impaired

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.