February 2012 Consumer Price Index

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain source. Statistical tables, standard technical appendices, administrative material and attendance rosters are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's historical context and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete document.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index rose sharply in February, accounting for over 80 percent of the change in the all items index. The gasoline increase led to a 3.2 percent rise in the energy index despite a decline in the index for natural gas. The food index was unchanged in February, with the food at home index unchanged for the second month in a row as major grocery store food indexes were mixed.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in February after increasing 0.2 percent in January. Indexes for shelter, new vehicles, medical care, and household furnishings and operations all advanced, while indexes for apparel, recreation, used cars and trucks, and tobacco all declined.

The all items index has risen 2.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as last month. The index for all items less food and energy was up 2.2 percent, a slight decline from last month's 2.3 percent figure, while the 12-month change in the food index fell to 3.9 percent in February, its lowest level since last June. In contrast, the 12-month change in the energy index was 7.0 percent in February compared to 6.1 percent in January.

Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month Un- adjusted 12-mos. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. ended 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 Feb. 2012

Consumer Price Index Data for February 2012

Food

The food index, which rose 0.2 percent in January, was unchanged in February. The food at home index was unchanged for the second month in a row. Within the food at home group, the indexes for fruits and vegetables continued to decline, falling 0.5 percent. The index for fresh fruits rose 1.3 percent, but the fresh vegetables index fell 3.5 percent, its fifth consecutive decline. The index for dairy and related products also fell 0.5 percent, while the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.2 percent. The index for nonalcoholic beverages, which declined in January, was unchanged in February. The only major grocery store food group indexes to rise were cereals and bakery products (up 0.2 percent) and other food at home (up 0.4 percent). The food at home index has risen 4.5 percent over the last 12 months; the fruits and vegetables index has declined 2.0 percent over that period but the other five major grocery store food group indexes all increased. The index for food away from home rose 0.1 percent in February after a 0.4 percent increase in January and has risen 3.1 percent over the last 12 months.

Energy

The energy index rose 3.2 percent in February after a 0.2 percent increase in January. The gasoline index rose 6.0 percent, its largest increase since December 2010. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 4.9 percent in February.) The gasoline increase more than offset a decline in the index for household energy, which fell 0.6 percent. The index for natural gas continued its string of declines, falling 3.4 percent. The electricity index was unchanged and the index for fuel oil increased 2.8 percent. Over the last 12 months, the gasoline index has risen 12.6 percent, the fuel oil index has increased 8.9 percent and the electricity index has advanced 1.9 percent. In contrast, the index for natural gas has declined 9.8 percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in February. The shelter index increased 0.2 percent for the fifth month in a row. The rent index increased 0.2 percent and the index for owners' equivalent rent rose 0.1 percent, while the index for lodging away from home advanced 1.9 percent. The index for new vehicles rose for the first time since June, increasing 0.6 percent. The medical care index increased 0.2 percent with the prescription drugs index rising 0.6 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.3 percent in February, its largest increase since August. In contrast to these indexes, the apparel index declined in February, falling 0.9 percent after a 0.9 percent increase in January. The index for used cars and trucks declined for the sixth month in a row, falling 0.2 percent, and the tobacco index declined 0.4 percent. The indexes for recreation, personal care, and airline fares all posted slight declines in February.

The index for all items less food and energy has risen 2.2 percent over the last 12 months. Indexes rising faster include apparel (4.2 percent), medical care (3.4 percent), new vehicles (3.0 percent) and used cars and trucks (2.9 percent). Among those indexes rising more slowly were shelter (2.0 percent), household furnishings and operations (1.3 percent), and recreation (1.0 percent).

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 227.663 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 224.317 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 2.6 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the post-2010 period are subject to revision.

C-CPI-U Index Revisions

As scheduled, effective with this release of data for January 2012, the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) has undergone its annual revision. Because the current expenditure data required for the calculation of the C-CPI-U are available only with a time lag, the index is issued first in preliminary form, using the latest available expenditure data at the time of publication, and is subject to two subsequent revisions. Therefore, C-CPI-U indexes for the 12 months of 2010 are issued in final form - employing monthly expenditure weights from 2010. Values for the 12 months of 2011 are revised and issued as interim, using expenditure weights from the 2009-2010 period. Calculation of the initial value of the January 2012 C-CPI-U index, and all subsequent months in 2012, will also be based upon 2009-2010 expenditure weights.

Redesigning the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Press Release Tables

The format of the tables contained in the CPI News Release will change beginning with the CPI News Release for March, 2012, which will be issued on Friday, April 13, 2012. News Release tables are currently available as part of the News Release pdf and html files, and independently in html format. The new tables will also be available in XLS format. In addition, the BLS will begin issuing monthly companion XLS files, which will contain additional index level and CPI-W information.

These tables were made available for public comment during October 2011. In response to the public comments, the BLS will issue XLS files each month, as companions to the News Release. There will be CPI-U and CPI-W files, and in addition to the data contained in the News Release tables, the Excel files will contain index values. Samples of the new CPI press release tables and companion XLS files are available now at http://www.bls.gov/cpi/mock-ups.htm.

In August 2009, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) restructured the text of the CPI press release to focus on the price movements of three broad expenditure categories, namely Food, Energy, and All items less food and energy. Table A within the CPI press release text was also updated in August 2009 to reflect this new structure. Before August 2009, the text of the CPI press release had focused on eight CPI `major groups' (Food and beverages; Housing; Apparel; Transportation; Medical care; Recreation; Education and communication; and Other goods and services).

While the text of the CPI press release was restructured in 2009, seven additional CPI press release tables continued to be published using the eight major groups. BLS has redesigned these press release tables, to reflect the focus on Food, Energy, and All items less food and energy. Within these three broad categories, CPI item series will be further divided into commodities and services. The CPI News Release will contain these updated tables beginning with the March 2012 News Release, to be issued on Friday, April 13, 2012.

Beyond the redesign in the structure of the CPI press release tables, several other improvements to these tables have been made.

The new Table 1 gives a summary of the index series which typically contribute to changes in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

The new Table 2 will show the full publication stub using the new structure for the CPI-U, including 11 new items series that were created to augment the redesign in the publication structure.

Second, standard errors for percent changes will be shown on tables 6 and 7. Confidence intervals for statistics can be created using standard errors; e.g., roughly 95 percent confidence intervals can be constructed using two standard errors. For example, if an item increased 3.7 percent, and its standard error was 0.6 percent, the 95 percent confidence interval for that price change can be said to be 3.7 percent plus or minus two standard errors, or 3.7 percent plus or minus 1.2 percent.

Finally, each item series in tables 6 and 7 will show the last time that item had a price change as large (or as small) as the percent change published that period. For example, if bananas rose 3.7 percent, and that was its largest increase since November 2007, that would be noted in the new tables.

In addition, most of the existing tables show the `relative importance', or weight, of each item category as of the previous December. The relative importance columns in the new tables will be improved in that they will be updated monthly to reflect the change in relative prices over time.

Finally, there will no longer be any press release tables that focus on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). That said, the CPI-W All items index level and percent changes will still be noted in the text of the press release, and a companion XLS file with CPI-W information will be available.

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