January 2012 Consumer Price Index

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain source. Statistical tables, standard technical appendices, administrative material and attendance rosters are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's historical context and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete document.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for food, energy, and all items less food and energy all rose in January, each increasing 0.2 percent. Within the food group, the index for food away from home increased while the index for food at home was unchanged; within the energy group the gasoline index increased while the index for household energy declined.

Within all items less food and energy, the apparel index rose sharply, and the indexes for shelter, recreation, medical care, and tobacco increased as well. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for airline fares both declined, while the new vehicles index was unchanged.

The all items index has risen 2.9 percent over the last 12 months, a slight decrease from last month's 3.0 percent figure. The index for energy has risen 6.1 percent over the last year and the food index 4.4 percent; both figures are slight declines from last month. The index for all items less food and energy has risen 2.3 percent, its largest 12-month increase since September 2008.

Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month Un- adjusted 12-mos. July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. ended 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 Jan. 2012

Consumer Price Index Data for January 2012

Food

The food index rose 0.2 percent in January, the same increase as in December. The food at home index was unchanged, as the major grocery store food groups were mixed. The index for dairy and related products increased 0.9 percent, and the indexes for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs and for other food at home increased as well. In contrast, the index for fruits and vegetables fell 1.3 percent, its fourth consecutive decline, and the indexes for cereals and bakery products and nonalcoholic beverages also decreased. Over the last 12 months, the food at home index has risen 5.3 percent. The dairy and related products index rose 9.0 percent over that span, the largest increase among the major grocery store food groups, while the fruits and vegetables index fell 0.1 percent, the only decline among the groups. The index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in January, its largest increase since August, and has increased 3.1 percent over the last 12 months.

Energy

The energy index rose slightly in January, increasing 0.2 percent after declining in each of the three previous months. The gasoline index rose 0.9 percent after declining the three previous months. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 3.6 percent in January.) In contrast, the household energy index declined 0.6 percent. The fuel oil index rose 1.4 percent but the natural gas index declined 2.9 percent, its fourth consecutive decrease. The index for electricity was unchanged in January. Over the last 12 months, the gasoline index has risen 9.7 percent while the household energy index has increased 1.2 percent. The indexes for fuel oil and electricity have risen over the last year, but the index for natural gas has declined.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in January. The shelter index increased 0.2 percent, with the indexes for rent, owners' equivalent rent, and lodging away from home all rising 0.2 percent. The apparel index, which declined in December, rose sharply in January, increasing 0.9 percent. The recreation index rose 0.6 percent as the indexes for admissions and toys both rose notably. The medical care index increased 0.3 percent, with medical care commodities rising 0.6 percent. The index for tobacco rose 0.5 percent and the indexes for household furnishings and operations and for personal care increased slightly. In contrast to these increases, the index for used cars and trucks declined for the fifth month in a row, falling 1.0 percent, and the index for airline fares fell 0.9 percent. The new vehicles index was unchanged in January after declining in each of the prior four months.

The index for all items less food and energy has risen 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. The shelter index has risen 2.0 percent over that span, the first time its 12-month change has been that high since November 2008. The apparel index has increased 4.7 percent and the medical care index has risen 3.6 percent. The indexes for both new vehicles and used cars and trucks have each risen 3.2 percent.

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 226.665 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 223.216 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 2.7 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the post-2010 period are subject to revision.

C-CPI-U Index Revisions

As scheduled, effective with this release of data for January 2012, the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) has undergone its annual revision. Because the current expenditure data required for the calculation of the C-CPI-U are available only with a time lag, the index is issued first in preliminary form, using the latest available expenditure data at the time of publication, and is subject to two subsequent revisions. Therefore, C-CPI-U indexes for the 12 months of 2010 are issued in final form - employing monthly expenditure weights from 2010. Values for the 12 months of 2011 are revised and issued as interim, using expenditure weights from the 2009-2010 period. Calculation of the initial value of the January 2012 C-CPI-U index, and all subsequent months in 2012, will also be based upon 2009-2010 expenditure weights.

Redesigning the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Press Release Tables

The format of the tables contained in the CPI News Release will change beginning with the CPI News Release for March, 2012, which will be issued on Friday, April 13, 2012. News Release tables are currently available as part of the News Release pdf and html files, and independently in html format. The new tables will also be available in XLS format. In addition, the BLS will begin issuing monthly companion XLS files, which will contain additional index level and CPI-W information.

These tables were made available for public comment during October 2011. In response to the public comments, the BLS will issue XLS files each month, as companions to the News Release. There will be CPI-U and CPI-W files, and in addition to the data contained in the News Release tables, the Excel files will contain index values. Samples of the companion XLS files will be available with the February CPI News Release in March 2012. Samples of the new CPI press release tables are available now at http://www.bls.gov/cpi/mock- ups.htm.

In August 2009, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) restructured the text of the CPI press release to focus on the price movements of three broad expenditure categories, namely Food, Energy, and All items less food and energy. Table A within the CPI press release text was also updated in August 2009 to reflect this new structure. Before August 2009, the text of the CPI press release had focused on eight CPI `major groups' (Food and beverages; Housing; Apparel; Transportation; Medical care; Recreation; Education and communication; and Other goods and services).

While the text of the CPI press release was restructured in 2009, seven additional CPI press release tables continued to be published using the eight major groups. BLS has redesigned these press release tables, to reflect the focus on Food, Energy, and All items less food and energy. Within these three broad categories, CPI item series will be further divided into commodities and services. The CPI News Release will contain these updated tables beginning with the March 2012 News Release, to be issued on Friday, April 13, 2012.

Beyond the redesign in the structure of the CPI press release tables, several other improvements to these tables have been made.

The new Table 1 gives a summary of the index series which typically contribute to changes in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

The new Table 2 will show the full publication stub using the new structure for the CPI-U, including 11 new items series that were created to augment the redesign in the publication structure. Table 3 will show aggregate item series (e.g., Transportation) that do not fall under the Food, Energy, and All items less food and energy structure.

Second, standard errors for percent changes will be shown on tables 6 and 7. Confidence intervals for statistics can be created using standard errors; e.g., roughly 95 percent confidence intervals can be constructed using two standard errors. For example, if an item increased 3.7 percent, and its standard error was 0.6 percent, the 95 percent confidence interval for that price change can be said to be 3.7 percent plus or minus two standard errors, or 3.7 percent plus or minus 1.2 percent.

Finally, each item series in tables 6 and 7 will show the last time that item had a price change as large (or as small) as the percent change published that period. For example, if bananas rose 3.7 percent, and that was its largest increase since November 2007, that would be noted in the new tables.

In addition, most of the existing tables show the `relative importance', or weight, of each item category as of the previous December. The relative importance columns in the new tables will be improved in that they will be updated monthly to reflect the change in relative prices over time.

Finally, there will no longer be any press release tables that focus on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). That said, the CPI-W All items index level and percent changes will still be noted in the text of the press release, and a companion XLS file with CPI-W information will be available.

Facilities for Sensory Impaired

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339. Expenditure Weight Update

Effective with this release, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has updated the consumption expenditure weights in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to the 2009-10 period. The updated expenditure weights for these indexes replace the 2007-2008 weights that were introduced effective with the January 2010 CPI release. As originally announced by BLS in December 1998, CPI expenditure weights will continue to be updated at two-year intervals.