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Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2016

Personal income increased $79.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $63.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $79.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $63.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $63.0 billion, or 0.5 percent. In December, personal income increased $45.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $39.2 billion, or 0.3 percent, and PCE increased $11.6 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real DPI increased 0.4 percent in January, the same increase as in December. Real PCE increased 0.4 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in December.

This news release presents revised estimates of wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance for July through September 2015 (third quarter). These estimates reflect the incorporation of the most recently available third-quarter wage and salary tabulations from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Compensation

Wages and salaries increased $48.1 billion in January, compared with an increase of $18.3 billion in December. Private wages and salaries increased $43.7 billion, compared with an increase of $15.9 billion. Government wages and salaries increased $4.4 billion, compared with an increase of $2.4 billion.

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $6.5 billion in January, compared with an increase of $5.0 billion in December.

Other personal income

Proprietors' income increased $7.7 billion in January, compared with an increase of $11.5 billion in December. Farm proprietors' income increased $3.1 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $4.8 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $4.6 billion, compared with an increase of $16.3 billion.

Rental income of persons increased $5.0 billion in January, compared with an increase of $3.8 billion in December. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $11.6 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $8.5 billion.

Personal current transfer receipts increased $10.6 billion in January, compared with an increase of $17.5 billion in December.

Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $10.0 billion in January, compared with an increase of $2.0 billion in December.

Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes increased $16.1 billion in January, compared with an increase of $6.3 billion in December. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased $63.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of $39.2 billion, or 0.3 percent.

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- increased $67.5 billion in January, compared with an increase of $14.3 billion in December. PCE increased $63.0 billion, compared with an increase of $11.6 billion.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $705.1 billion in January, compared with $709.2 billion in December. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.2 percent, the same rate as in December. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's Financial Accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/nipa-frb.asp.

Real DPI, real PCE, and price index

Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.4 percent in January, the same increase as in December.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.4 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in December. Purchases of durable goods increased 1.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4 percent. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent. Purchases of services increased 0.3 percent, the same increase as in December.

The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in January, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in December. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.

The January PCE price index increased 1.3 percent from January a year ago. The January PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.7 percent from January a year ago.

2015 Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income increased 4.4 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015 annual level), the same increase as in 2014. DPI increased 3.7 percent in 2015, compared with an increase of 4.2 percent in 2014. PCE increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 4.2 percent.

Real DPI increased 3.4 percent in 2015, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in 2014. Real PCE increased 3.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent.

Revisions

Estimates have been revised for July through December. Changes in personal income, in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI, and in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar PCE for November and for December -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

Estimates of wages and salaries were revised from July through December. The revision to third-quarter wages and salaries reflected the incorporation of the most recently available Bureau of Labor Statistics tabulations of the third-quarter wages and salaries from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Revised estimates for October, November, and December reflect extrapolations from the revised third-quarter level of wages. In addition, revisions to July through December reflect revised BLS employment, hours, and earnings data.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Feb 26, 2016.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierJan 27, 2016Publication referenceFeb 26, 201630 days laterMar 27, 2016
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®3.81%Observed 3.62%Observed −19 bps vs. earlier reference3.71%Observed +9 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury2.02%Observed 1.76%Observed −26 bps vs. earlier reference1.91%Observed +15 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Nov 26, 2015 – May 26, 2016
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Feb 26, 2016Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.1.50%3.00%4.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 3.93% · Dec 3, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Dec 10, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Dec 17, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.96% · Dec 24, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.01% · Dec 31, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Jan 7, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.92% · Jan 14, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.81% · Jan 21, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.79% · Jan 28, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.72% · Feb 4, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.65% · Feb 11, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.65% · Feb 18, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.62% · Feb 25, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.64% · Mar 3, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.68% · Mar 10, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.73% · Mar 17, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.71% · Mar 24, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.71% · Mar 31, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.59% · Apr 7, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.58% · Apr 14, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.59% · Apr 21, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.66% · Apr 28, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.61% · May 5, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.57% · May 12, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.58% · May 19, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.64% · May 26, 201610-year Treasury: 2.24% · Jan 4, 201610-year Treasury: 2.25% · Jan 5, 201610-year Treasury: 2.18% · Jan 6, 201610-year Treasury: 2.16% · Jan 7, 201610-year Treasury: 2.13% · Jan 8, 201610-year Treasury: 2.17% · Jan 11, 201610-year Treasury: 2.12% · Jan 12, 201610-year Treasury: 2.08% · Jan 13, 201610-year Treasury: 2.10% · Jan 14, 201610-year Treasury: 2.03% · Jan 15, 201610-year Treasury: 2.06% · Jan 19, 201610-year Treasury: 2.01% · Jan 20, 201610-year Treasury: 2.02% · Jan 21, 201610-year Treasury: 2.07% · Jan 22, 201610-year Treasury: 2.03% · Jan 25, 201610-year Treasury: 2.01% · Jan 26, 201610-year Treasury: 2.02% · Jan 27, 201610-year Treasury: 2.00% · Jan 28, 201610-year Treasury: 1.94% · Jan 29, 201610-year Treasury: 1.97% · Feb 1, 201610-year Treasury: 1.87% · Feb 2, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Feb 3, 201610-year Treasury: 1.87% · Feb 4, 201610-year Treasury: 1.86% · Feb 5, 201610-year Treasury: 1.75% · Feb 8, 201610-year Treasury: 1.74% · Feb 9, 201610-year Treasury: 1.71% · Feb 10, 201610-year Treasury: 1.63% · Feb 11, 201610-year Treasury: 1.74% · Feb 12, 201610-year Treasury: 1.78% · Feb 16, 201610-year Treasury: 1.81% · Feb 17, 201610-year Treasury: 1.75% · Feb 18, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · Feb 19, 201610-year Treasury: 1.77% · Feb 22, 201610-year Treasury: 1.74% · Feb 23, 201610-year Treasury: 1.75% · Feb 24, 201610-year Treasury: 1.71% · Feb 25, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · Feb 26, 201610-year Treasury: 1.74% · Feb 29, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Mar 1, 201610-year Treasury: 1.84% · Mar 2, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Mar 3, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Mar 4, 201610-year Treasury: 1.91% · Mar 7, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Mar 8, 201610-year Treasury: 1.90% · Mar 9, 201610-year Treasury: 1.93% · Mar 10, 201610-year Treasury: 1.98% · Mar 11, 201610-year Treasury: 1.97% · Mar 14, 201610-year Treasury: 1.97% · Mar 15, 201610-year Treasury: 1.94% · Mar 16, 201610-year Treasury: 1.91% · Mar 17, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Mar 18, 201610-year Treasury: 1.92% · Mar 21, 201610-year Treasury: 1.94% · Mar 22, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Mar 23, 201610-year Treasury: 1.91% · Mar 24, 201610-year Treasury: 1.89% · Mar 28, 201610-year Treasury: 1.81% · Mar 29, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Mar 30, 201610-year Treasury: 1.78% · Mar 31, 201610-year Treasury: 1.79% · Apr 1, 201610-year Treasury: 1.78% · Apr 4, 201610-year Treasury: 1.73% · Apr 5, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · Apr 6, 201610-year Treasury: 1.70% · Apr 7, 201610-year Treasury: 1.72% · Apr 8, 201610-year Treasury: 1.73% · Apr 11, 201610-year Treasury: 1.79% · Apr 12, 201610-year Treasury: 1.77% · Apr 13, 201610-year Treasury: 1.80% · Apr 14, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · Apr 15, 201610-year Treasury: 1.78% · Apr 18, 201610-year Treasury: 1.79% · Apr 19, 201610-year Treasury: 1.85% · Apr 20, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Apr 21, 201610-year Treasury: 1.89% · Apr 22, 201610-year Treasury: 1.91% · Apr 25, 201610-year Treasury: 1.94% · Apr 26, 201610-year Treasury: 1.87% · Apr 27, 201610-year Treasury: 1.84% · Apr 28, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Apr 29, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · May 2, 201610-year Treasury: 1.81% · May 3, 201610-year Treasury: 1.79% · May 4, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · May 5, 201610-year Treasury: 1.79% · May 6, 201610-year Treasury: 1.77% · May 9, 201610-year Treasury: 1.77% · May 10, 201610-year Treasury: 1.73% · May 11, 201610-year Treasury: 1.75% · May 12, 201610-year Treasury: 1.71% · May 13, 201610-year Treasury: 1.75% · May 16, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · May 17, 201610-year Treasury: 1.87% · May 18, 201610-year Treasury: 1.85% · May 19, 201610-year Treasury: 1.85% · May 20, 201610-year Treasury: 1.84% · May 23, 201610-year Treasury: 1.86% · May 24, 201610-year Treasury: 1.87% · May 25, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · May 26, 2016Nov 26, 2015Feb 26, 2016May 26, 2016
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations10-year Treasury101 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,367.31/month

3.62% · Feb 25, 2016

At the later reference$1,382.55/month

3.71% · Mar 24, 2016

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $15.24 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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