Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, December 2015

Personal income increased $42.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, in December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $42.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, in December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $0.7 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. In November, personal income increased $44.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $33.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE increased $59.4 billion, or 0.5 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real DPI increased 0.4 percent in December, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in November. Real PCE increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent.

Compensation

Wages and salaries increased $13.1 billion in December, compared with an increase of $37.9 billion in November. Private wages and salaries increased $10.3 billion, compared with an increase of $35.3 billion. Government wages and salaries increased $2.8 billion, compared with an increase of $2.6 billion.

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $4.8 billion in December, compared with an increase of $6.4 billion in November.

Other personal income

Proprietors' income increased $13.4 billion in December, in contrast to a decrease of $1.9 billion in November. Farm proprietors' income decreased $0.3 billion, the same decrease as in November. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $13.8 billion in December, in contrast to a decrease of $1.6 billion in November.

Rental income of persons increased $3.3 billion in December, compared with an increase of $2.7 billion in November. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) decreased $8.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $5.4 billion.

Personal current transfer receipts increased $18.1 billion in December, compared with an increase of $9.4 billion in November. Within current transfer receipts , government social benefit payments to persons included retroactive social security benefit payments of $8.8 billion (at an annual rate), resulting from a recalculation of the earnings base underlying the benefits of recent retirees.

Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $1.3 billion in December, compared with an increase of $4.9 billion in November.

Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes increased $4.8 billion in December, compared with an increase of $10.9 billion in November. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased $37.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of $33.4 billion, or 0.2 percent.

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- increased $2.0 billion in December, compared with an increase of $62.1 billion in November. PCE decreased $0.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $59.4 billion.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $753.5 billion in December, compared with $717.8 billion in November. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.5 percent, compared with 5.3 percent. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's Financial Accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/nipa-frb.asp.

Real DPI, real PCE, and price index

Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.4 percent in December, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in November.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.1 percent in December, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in November. Purchases of durable goods decreased 0.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.8 percent. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts more than accounted for the decrease in December. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 0.2 percent in December, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent in November. Purchases of services increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.

The price index for PCE decreased 0.1 percent in December, in contrast to an increase of 0.1 percent in November. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased less than 0.1 percent, compared to an increase of 0.2 percent.

The December PCE price index increased 0.6 percent from December a year ago. The December PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.4 percent from December a year ago.

2015 Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income increased 4.5 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015 annual level), compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2014. DPI increased 3.8 percent, compared with an increase of 4.2 percent. PCE increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 4.2 percent.

Real DPI increased 3.5 percent in 2015, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in 2014. Real PCE increased 3.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent.

Revisions

Estimates have been revised for October and November. Changes in personal income, in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI, and in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar PCE for October and for November -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Feb 1, 2016.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierJan 2, 2016Publication referenceFeb 1, 201630 days laterMar 2, 2016
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®4.01%Observed 3.79%Observed −22 bps vs. earlier reference3.62%Observed −17 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the TreasuryUnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.1.97%Observed 1.84%Observed −13 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Nov 1, 2015 – May 1, 2016
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Feb 1, 2016Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.1.50%3.00%4.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · Nov 5, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.98% · Nov 12, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Nov 19, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Nov 25, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.93% · Dec 3, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Dec 10, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Dec 17, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.96% · Dec 24, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.01% · Dec 31, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Jan 7, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.92% · Jan 14, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.81% · Jan 21, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.79% · Jan 28, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.72% · Feb 4, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.65% · Feb 11, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.65% · Feb 18, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.62% · Feb 25, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.64% · Mar 3, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.68% · Mar 10, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.73% · Mar 17, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.71% · Mar 24, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.71% · Mar 31, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.59% · Apr 7, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.58% · Apr 14, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.59% · Apr 21, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.66% · Apr 28, 201610-year Treasury: 2.24% · Jan 4, 201610-year Treasury: 2.25% · Jan 5, 201610-year Treasury: 2.18% · Jan 6, 201610-year Treasury: 2.16% · Jan 7, 201610-year Treasury: 2.13% · Jan 8, 201610-year Treasury: 2.17% · Jan 11, 201610-year Treasury: 2.12% · Jan 12, 201610-year Treasury: 2.08% · Jan 13, 201610-year Treasury: 2.10% · Jan 14, 201610-year Treasury: 2.03% · Jan 15, 201610-year Treasury: 2.06% · Jan 19, 201610-year Treasury: 2.01% · Jan 20, 201610-year Treasury: 2.02% · Jan 21, 201610-year Treasury: 2.07% · Jan 22, 201610-year Treasury: 2.03% · Jan 25, 201610-year Treasury: 2.01% · Jan 26, 201610-year Treasury: 2.02% · Jan 27, 201610-year Treasury: 2.00% · Jan 28, 201610-year Treasury: 1.94% · Jan 29, 201610-year Treasury: 1.97% · Feb 1, 201610-year Treasury: 1.87% · Feb 2, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Feb 3, 201610-year Treasury: 1.87% · Feb 4, 201610-year Treasury: 1.86% · Feb 5, 201610-year Treasury: 1.75% · Feb 8, 201610-year Treasury: 1.74% · Feb 9, 201610-year Treasury: 1.71% · Feb 10, 201610-year Treasury: 1.63% · Feb 11, 201610-year Treasury: 1.74% · Feb 12, 201610-year Treasury: 1.78% · Feb 16, 201610-year Treasury: 1.81% · Feb 17, 201610-year Treasury: 1.75% · Feb 18, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · Feb 19, 201610-year Treasury: 1.77% · Feb 22, 201610-year Treasury: 1.74% · Feb 23, 201610-year Treasury: 1.75% · Feb 24, 201610-year Treasury: 1.71% · Feb 25, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · Feb 26, 201610-year Treasury: 1.74% · Feb 29, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Mar 1, 201610-year Treasury: 1.84% · Mar 2, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Mar 3, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Mar 4, 201610-year Treasury: 1.91% · Mar 7, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Mar 8, 201610-year Treasury: 1.90% · Mar 9, 201610-year Treasury: 1.93% · Mar 10, 201610-year Treasury: 1.98% · Mar 11, 201610-year Treasury: 1.97% · Mar 14, 201610-year Treasury: 1.97% · Mar 15, 201610-year Treasury: 1.94% · Mar 16, 201610-year Treasury: 1.91% · Mar 17, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Mar 18, 201610-year Treasury: 1.92% · Mar 21, 201610-year Treasury: 1.94% · Mar 22, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Mar 23, 201610-year Treasury: 1.91% · Mar 24, 201610-year Treasury: 1.89% · Mar 28, 201610-year Treasury: 1.81% · Mar 29, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Mar 30, 201610-year Treasury: 1.78% · Mar 31, 201610-year Treasury: 1.79% · Apr 1, 201610-year Treasury: 1.78% · Apr 4, 201610-year Treasury: 1.73% · Apr 5, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · Apr 6, 201610-year Treasury: 1.70% · Apr 7, 201610-year Treasury: 1.72% · Apr 8, 201610-year Treasury: 1.73% · Apr 11, 201610-year Treasury: 1.79% · Apr 12, 201610-year Treasury: 1.77% · Apr 13, 201610-year Treasury: 1.80% · Apr 14, 201610-year Treasury: 1.76% · Apr 15, 201610-year Treasury: 1.78% · Apr 18, 201610-year Treasury: 1.79% · Apr 19, 201610-year Treasury: 1.85% · Apr 20, 201610-year Treasury: 1.88% · Apr 21, 201610-year Treasury: 1.89% · Apr 22, 201610-year Treasury: 1.91% · Apr 25, 201610-year Treasury: 1.94% · Apr 26, 201610-year Treasury: 1.87% · Apr 27, 201610-year Treasury: 1.84% · Apr 28, 201610-year Treasury: 1.83% · Apr 29, 2016Nov 1, 2015Feb 1, 2016May 1, 2016
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations10-year Treasury82 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,396.16/month

3.79% · Jan 28, 2016

At the later reference$1,367.31/month

3.62% · Feb 25, 2016

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $28.86 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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