Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, September 2015

Personal income increased $18.6 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $19.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $18.6 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $19.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $15.6 billion, or 0.1 percent. In August, personal income increased $54.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $49.5 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $44.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in August. Real PCE increased 0.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent.

Compensation

Wages and salaries decreased $3.7 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $36.0 billion in August. Private wages and salaries decreased $7.0 billion, in contrast to an increase of $32.2 billion. Government wages and salaries increased $3.3 billion, compared with an increase of $3.8 billion.

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $3.3 billion in September, compared with an increase of $6.4 billion in August.

Other personal income

Proprietors' income increased $5.6 billion in September, compared with an increase of $0.6 billion in August. Farm proprietors' income increased $2.6 billion, the same increase as in August. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $3.1 billion in September, in contrast to a decrease of $2.0 billion in August.

Rental income of persons increased $2.5 billion in September, compared with an increase of $1.8 billion in August. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $5.7 billion, compared with an increase of $5.1 billion. Personal current transfer receipts increased $4.0 billion, compared with an increase of $9.5 billion.

Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- decreased $1.0 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $4.4 billion in August.

Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes decreased $0.6 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $5.4 billion in August. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased $19.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of $49.5 billion, or 0.4 percent.

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- increased $13.7 billion in September, compared with an increase of $42.3 billion in August. PCE increased $15.6 billion, compared with an increase of $44.2 billion.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $642.8 billion in September, compared with $637.3 billion in August. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.8 percent, compared with 4.7 percent. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/nipa-frb.asp.

Real DPI, real PCE, and price index

Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in August.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in August. Purchases of durable goods increased 0.6 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 0.3 percent in September, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent in August. Purchases of services increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent.

The price index for PCE decreased 0.1 percent in September, compared with a decrease of less than 0.1 percent in August. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in September, the same increase as in August.

The September price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent from September a year ago. The September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.3 percent from September a year ago.

Revisions

Estimates have been revised for July and August. Changes in personal income, in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI, and in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar PCE for July and August -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Oct 30, 2015.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierSep 30, 2015Publication referenceOct 30, 201530 days laterNov 29, 2015
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®3.86%Observed 3.76%Observed −10 bps vs. earlier reference3.95%Observed +19 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the TreasuryUnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Jul 30, 2015 – Jan 30, 2016
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Oct 30, 2015Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.1.50%3.00%4.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 3.98% · Jul 30, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.91% · Aug 6, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.94% · Aug 13, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.93% · Aug 20, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.84% · Aug 27, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.89% · Sep 3, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.90% · Sep 10, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.91% · Sep 17, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.86% · Sep 24, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.85% · Oct 1, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Oct 8, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.82% · Oct 15, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.79% · Oct 22, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Oct 29, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · Nov 5, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.98% · Nov 12, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Nov 19, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Nov 25, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.93% · Dec 3, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Dec 10, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Dec 17, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.96% · Dec 24, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.01% · Dec 31, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Jan 7, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.92% · Jan 14, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.81% · Jan 21, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 3.79% · Jan 28, 201610-year Treasury: 2.24% · Jan 4, 201610-year Treasury: 2.25% · Jan 5, 201610-year Treasury: 2.18% · Jan 6, 201610-year Treasury: 2.16% · Jan 7, 201610-year Treasury: 2.13% · Jan 8, 201610-year Treasury: 2.17% · Jan 11, 201610-year Treasury: 2.12% · Jan 12, 201610-year Treasury: 2.08% · Jan 13, 201610-year Treasury: 2.10% · Jan 14, 201610-year Treasury: 2.03% · Jan 15, 201610-year Treasury: 2.06% · Jan 19, 201610-year Treasury: 2.01% · Jan 20, 201610-year Treasury: 2.02% · Jan 21, 201610-year Treasury: 2.07% · Jan 22, 201610-year Treasury: 2.03% · Jan 25, 201610-year Treasury: 2.01% · Jan 26, 201610-year Treasury: 2.02% · Jan 27, 201610-year Treasury: 2.00% · Jan 28, 201610-year Treasury: 1.94% · Jan 29, 2016Jul 30, 2015Oct 30, 2015Jan 30, 2016
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury19 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,391.05/month

3.76% · Oct 29, 2015

At the later reference$1,423.61/month

3.95% · Nov 25, 2015

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $32.56 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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