Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, July 2015

Personal income increased $67.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $67.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $37.4 billion, or 0.3 percent. In June, personal income increased $59.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $52.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $31.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real DPI increased 0.4 percent in July, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in June. Real PCE increased 0.2 percent, compared to an increase of less than 0.1 percent.

This news release presents revised estimates of wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance for January through March 2015 (first quarter). These estimates reflect the incorporation of the most recently available first-quarter wage and salary tabulations from the quarterly census of employment and wages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ___________________ FOOTNOTE._________ Monthly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Month-to-month dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2009) dollars.

Compensation

Wages and salaries increased $35.8 billion in July, compared with an increase of $14.3 billion in June. Private wages and salaries increased $32.7 billion, compared with an increase of $11.0 billion. Government wages and salaries increased $3.1 billion, compared with an increase of $3.3 billion.

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $6.0 billion in July, compared with an increase of $4.6 billion in June.

Other personal income

Proprietors' income increased $11.3 billion in July, compared with an increase of $7.8 billion in June. Farm proprietors' income increased $0.4 billion, compared with an increase of $2.7 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $10.9 billion, compared with an increase of $5.1 billion.

Rental income of persons increased $4.4 billion in July, compared with an increase of $7.4 billion in June. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $0.9 billion, compared with an increase of $20.6 billion. Personal current transfer receipts increased $13.0 billion, compared with an increase of $6.2 billion.

Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $4.3 billion in July, compared with an increase of $1.5 billion in June.

Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes increased $5.6 billion in July, compared with an increase of $7.0 billion in June. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in July, compared with an increase of $52.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, in June.

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- increased $37.7 billion in July, compared with an increase of $36.5 billion in June. PCE increased $37.4 billion, compared with an increase of $31.8 billion.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $651.1 billion in July, compared with $627.3 billion in June. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.9 percent in July, compared with 4.7 percent in June. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/nipa-frb.asp.

Real DPI, real PCE, and price index

Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.4 percent in July, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in June.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in July, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent in June. Purchases of durable goods increased 1.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted for about half of the increase in July and most of the decrease in June. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent in July, the same increase as in June. Purchases of services increased 0.1 percent in July, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in June.

The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in July, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in June. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in July, the same increase as in June.

The July price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent from July a year ago. The July PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.2 percent from July a year ago.

Revisions

Estimates for personal income have been revised for January through June; estimates for PCE have been revised for April through June. Changes in personal income, in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI, and in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar PCE for May and June -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

Estimates of wages and salaries were revised from January through June. The revision to first-quarter wages and salaries reflects the incorporation of the most recently available BLS tabulations of first-quarter wages and salaries from the quarterly census of employment and wages. Revised estimates for April, May, and June reflect extrapolation from the revised first-quarter level of wages. In addition, revisions to May and June reflect revised BLS employment, hours, and earnings data for those months.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Aug 28, 2015.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierJul 29, 2015Publication referenceAug 28, 201530 days laterSep 27, 2015
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®4.04%Observed 3.84%Observed −20 bps vs. earlier reference3.86%Observed +2 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the TreasuryUnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

May 28, 2015 – Nov 28, 2015
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Aug 28, 2015Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.3.50%4.00%4.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · May 28, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · Jun 4, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.04% · Jun 11, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.00% · Jun 18, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.02% · Jun 25, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.08% · Jul 2, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.04% · Jul 9, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.09% · Jul 16, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.04% · Jul 23, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.98% · Jul 30, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.91% · Aug 6, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.94% · Aug 13, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.93% · Aug 20, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.84% · Aug 27, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.89% · Sep 3, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.90% · Sep 10, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.91% · Sep 17, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.86% · Sep 24, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.85% · Oct 1, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Oct 8, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.82% · Oct 15, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.79% · Oct 22, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Oct 29, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · Nov 5, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.98% · Nov 12, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Nov 19, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Nov 25, 2015May 28, 2015Aug 28, 2015Nov 28, 2015
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,404.71/month

3.84% · Aug 27, 2015

At the later reference$1,408.14/month

3.86% · Sep 24, 2015

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $3.43 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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