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Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, February 2015

Personal income increased $58.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $54.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $58.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $54.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $11.8 billion, or 0.1 percent. In January, personal income increased $61.8 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE decreased $28.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in February, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in January. Real PCE decreased 0.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.2 percent.

Compensation

Wages and salaries increased $23.9 billion in February, compared with an increase of $47.3 billion in January. Private wages and salaries increased $21.9 billion, compared with an increase of $44.2 billion. Government wages and salaries increased $2.1 billion, compared with an increase of $3.1 billion. Pay raises for federal civilian personnel added an additional $0.6 billion to the change in government payrolls in February; pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel added $2.2 billion to government payrolls in January.

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $5.2 billion in February, compared with an increase of $8.4 billion in January.

Other personal income

Proprietors' income decreased $7.0 billion in February, compared with a decrease of $11.7 billion in January. Farm proprietors' income decreased $6.3 billion, compared with a decrease of $6.4 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income decreased $0.7 billion, compared with a decrease of $5.3 billion.

Rental income of persons increased $3.9 billion in February, compared with an increase of $1.8 billion in January. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $19.7 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $4.1 billion. Personal dividend income increased $25.3 billion, compared with an increase of $1.6 billion.

Personal current transfer receipts increased $15.9 billion in February, compared with an increase of $28.7 billion in January. In January, a 1.7-percent cost-of-living adjustment to social security benefits and several other federal transfer payment programs added $16.7 billion. Also in January, other government social benefits was boosted $5.3 billion, primarily reflecting health insurance premium subsidies paid in the form of tax credits to enrollees of the Affordable Care Act exchanges. For additional information, see the FAQ on “How will the Affordable Care Act affect BEA’s measure of personal income and outlays?” at www.bea.gov.

Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $3.0 billion in February, compared with an increase of $8.5 billion in January.

Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes increased $4.4 billion in February, compared with an increase of $0.3 billion in January. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased $54.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, in February, compared with an increase of $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in January.

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- increased $14.2 billion in February, in contrast to a decrease of $25.4 billion in January. PCE increased $11.8 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $28.5 billion.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $768.6 billion in February, compared with $728.7 billion in January. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.8 percent in February, compared with 5.5 percent in January. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/nipa-frb.asp.

Real DPI, real PCE, and price index

Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in February, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in January.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.1 percent in February, in contrast to an increase of 0.2 percent in January. Purchases of durable goods decreased 1.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.7 percent. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted for most of the decrease in February. Purchases of nondurable goods increased less than 0.1 percent in February, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in January. Purchases of services increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in February, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4 percent in January. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in February, the same increase as in January.

The February price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent from February a year ago. The February PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.4 percent from February a year ago.

2014 Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income increased 4.0 percent in 2014 (that is, from the 2013 annual level to the 2014 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in 2013. DPI increased 3.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent. PCE increased 3.9 percent, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent.

Real DPI increased 2.5 percent in 2014, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in 2013. Real PCE increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent.

Revisions

Estimates have been revised for October 2014 through January 2015. Changes in personal income, in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI, and in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar PCE for December and January -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Mar 30, 2015.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierFeb 28, 2015Publication referenceMar 30, 201530 days laterApr 29, 2015
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®3.80%Observed 3.69%Observed −11 bps vs. earlier reference3.65%Observed −4 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the TreasuryUnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Dec 30, 2014 – Jun 30, 2015
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Mar 30, 2015Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.3.50%4.00%4.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · Dec 31, 201430-year fixed mortgage: 3.73% · Jan 8, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.66% · Jan 15, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.63% · Jan 22, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.66% · Jan 29, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.59% · Feb 5, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.69% · Feb 12, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Feb 19, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.80% · Feb 26, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.75% · Mar 5, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.86% · Mar 12, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.78% · Mar 19, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.69% · Mar 26, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.70% · Apr 2, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.66% · Apr 9, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.67% · Apr 16, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.65% · Apr 23, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.68% · Apr 30, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.80% · May 7, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.85% · May 14, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.84% · May 21, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · May 28, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · Jun 4, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.04% · Jun 11, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.00% · Jun 18, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.02% · Jun 25, 2015Dec 30, 2014Mar 30, 2015Jun 30, 2015
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,379.15/month

3.69% · Mar 26, 2015

At the later reference$1,372.38/month

3.65% · Apr 23, 2015

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $6.77 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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