Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Economy · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised).

Real GDP was revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending. For more information, refer to the "Technical Notes" below

The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were consumer spending, investment, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

GDP by industry

From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected increases in real value added of 2.5 percent for private services-producing industries, 2.3 percent for private goods-producing industries, and less than 0.1 percent for government. The leading industry contributors to the increase in real GDP were real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance. The leading offsets were decreases in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and nondurable goods manufacturing.

Related economic measures

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate.

Real gross output increased 5.0 percent in the second quarter, reflecting increases of 6.0 percent for private services-producing industries, 3.0 percent for private goods-producing industries, and 2.6 percent for government.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.6 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 2.4 percent in the second quarter, revised up 0.6 percentage point.

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $384.0 billion in the second quarter, revised down $16.9 billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.6 percent in the second quarter, revised down 0.2 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 5.0 percent, revised down 0.3 percentage point, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 3.3 percent, also revised down 0.3 percentage point.

GDP by state

From a regional perspective, real GDP increased in 44 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter of 2026, with the percent change at an annual rate ranging from 4.0 percent in New York to –2.3 percent in West Virginia.

Finance and insurance was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in New York and Delaware. Mining was the leading contributor to the decrease in West Virginia and Wyoming.

Personal income by state

In the second quarter of 2026, current-dollar personal income increased $314.3 billion, or 4.7 percent at an annual rate. Personal income increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia, with the percent change at an annual rate ranging from 6.4 percent in Wisconsin to –4.2 percent in North Dakota.

Earnings (compensation plus proprietors’ income) increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia. The percent change in earnings ranged from 7.3 percent in Minnesota to –9.3 percent in North Dakota.

Personal current transfer receipts increased in 48 states and declined in the District of Columbia. The percent change in transfer receipts ranged from 13.0 percent in Wisconsin to –3.9 percent in Oregon.

Property income (dividends, interest, and rent) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The percent change ranged from 5.1 percent in Tennessee to 3.3 percent in Iowa.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) by state

In 2025, current-dollar PCE increased 5.3 percent, increasing in 14 of the 16 major categories for which BEA prepares estimates. PCE by state increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the percent change ranging from 7.0 percent in Florida to 4.2 percent in California.

Health care and housing and utilities were the leading contributors to the increases in PCE in most states, including Florida.

Today's release also includes results from the 2026 annual update of the National Economic Accounts, which include the National Income and Product Accounts and the Industry Economic Accounts. The update covered the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026 and resulted in revisions to GDP, GDP by industry, GDI, and their major components. The reference year remains 2017. Today’s release also includes the results of BEA's annual updates of GDP by state, personal income by state, and PCE by state.

Updates for the First Quarter of 2026

For the first quarter of 2026, real GDP is now estimated to have increased 2.5 percent, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point from the previously published estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports of services and consumer spending on both goods and services.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers is now estimated to have increased 1.8 percent in the first quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previously published estimate.

From an industry perspective, real value added for private goods-producing industries is now estimated to have increased 1.5 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 3.0 percentage points. Private services-producing industries increased 2.1 percent, an upward revision of 1.3 percentage points. Government increased 6.3 percent, a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points.

Real gross output is now estimated to have increased 2.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.6 percentage point. Private goods-producing industries decreased 0.9 percent, a downward revision of 0.9 percentage point. Private services-producing industries increased 2.9 percent, an upward revision of 1.2 percentage points. Government increased 5.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point.

The price index for gross domestic purchases is now estimated to have increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point. The PCE price index increased 4.2 percent, also revised down 0.4 percentage point. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.9 percent, revised down 0.5 percentage point.

Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, 1.3 percentage points higher than previously estimated. The leading contributor to the upward revision was compensation, based primarily on new first-quarter wage and salary data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. The average of real GDP and real GDI is now estimated to have increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, 0.8 percentage point higher than previously estimated.

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) is now estimated to have increased $63.4 billion in the first quarter, a downward revison of $11.0 billion.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Sep 30, 2026.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Distinguish annualized growth from growth over a year

Real GDP measures inflation-adjusted production. BEA usually reports quarter-to-quarter growth at an annualized pace: the result if that quarter’s growth continued for four quarters, rather than the actual change over the past year. Check whether the article is an advance, second or third estimate and which quarter it covers. Additional data and later annual updates can change earlier estimates. Read consumer spending, investment and other components alongside the headline. The benchmark window supplies historical context; it does not identify the report’s effect on mortgage rates. BEA GDP definitions, statistical conventions and revisions.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierAug 31, 2026Publication referenceSep 30, 202630 days laterOct 30, 2026
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®6.66%Observed 7.03%Observed +37 bps vs. earlier reference7.24%Observed +21 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury4.75%Observed 5.29%Observed +54 bps vs. earlier reference4.94%Observed −35 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Jun 30, 2026 – Dec 30, 2026
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Sep 30, 2026Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.4.00%5.75%7.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 6.43% · Jul 2, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.49% · Jul 9, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.55% · Jul 16, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.58% · Jul 23, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.66% · Jul 30, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.69% · Aug 6, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.67% · Aug 13, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.65% · Aug 20, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.66% · Aug 27, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.71% · Sep 3, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.76% · Sep 10, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.95% · Sep 17, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 7.03% · Sep 24, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 7.28% · Oct 1, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 7.40% · Oct 8, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 7.40% · Oct 15, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 7.32% · Oct 22, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 7.24% · Oct 29, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 7.18% · Nov 5, 202610-year Treasury: 4.44% · Jun 30, 202610-year Treasury: 4.48% · Jul 1, 202610-year Treasury: 4.49% · Jul 2, 202610-year Treasury: 4.48% · Jul 6, 202610-year Treasury: 4.55% · Jul 7, 202610-year Treasury: 4.56% · Jul 8, 202610-year Treasury: 4.54% · Jul 9, 202610-year Treasury: 4.56% · Jul 10, 202610-year Treasury: 4.62% · Jul 13, 202610-year Treasury: 4.58% · Jul 14, 202610-year Treasury: 4.55% · Jul 15, 202610-year Treasury: 4.57% · Jul 16, 202610-year Treasury: 4.55% · Jul 17, 202610-year Treasury: 4.60% · Jul 20, 202610-year Treasury: 4.63% · Jul 21, 202610-year Treasury: 4.67% · Jul 22, 202610-year Treasury: 4.71% · Jul 23, 202610-year Treasury: 4.69% · Jul 24, 202610-year Treasury: 4.65% · Jul 27, 202610-year Treasury: 4.61% · Jul 28, 202610-year Treasury: 4.67% · Jul 29, 202610-year Treasury: 4.68% · Jul 30, 202610-year Treasury: 4.75% · Jul 31, 202610-year Treasury: 4.70% · Aug 3, 202610-year Treasury: 4.63% · Aug 4, 202610-year Treasury: 4.63% · Aug 5, 202610-year Treasury: 4.69% · Aug 6, 202610-year Treasury: 4.65% · Aug 7, 202610-year Treasury: 4.72% · Aug 10, 202610-year Treasury: 4.70% · Aug 11, 202610-year Treasury: 4.68% · Aug 12, 202610-year Treasury: 4.63% · Aug 13, 202610-year Treasury: 4.68% · Aug 14, 202610-year Treasury: 4.72% · Aug 17, 202610-year Treasury: 4.71% · Aug 18, 202610-year Treasury: 4.65% · Aug 19, 202610-year Treasury: 4.69% · Aug 20, 202610-year Treasury: 4.74% · Aug 21, 202610-year Treasury: 4.70% · Aug 24, 202610-year Treasury: 4.64% · Aug 25, 202610-year Treasury: 4.66% · Aug 26, 202610-year Treasury: 4.67% · Aug 27, 202610-year Treasury: 4.73% · Aug 28, 202610-year Treasury: 4.75% · Aug 31, 202610-year Treasury: 4.79% · Sep 1, 202610-year Treasury: 4.79% · Sep 2, 202610-year Treasury: 4.77% · Sep 3, 202610-year Treasury: 4.78% · Sep 4, 202610-year Treasury: 4.80% · Sep 8, 202610-year Treasury: 4.83% · Sep 9, 202610-year Treasury: 4.95% · Sep 10, 202610-year Treasury: 4.96% · Sep 11, 202610-year Treasury: 4.97% · Sep 14, 202610-year Treasury: 5.00% · Sep 15, 202610-year Treasury: 5.01% · Sep 16, 202610-year Treasury: 4.94% · Sep 17, 202610-year Treasury: 5.01% · Sep 18, 202610-year Treasury: 4.96% · Sep 21, 202610-year Treasury: 4.96% · Sep 22, 202610-year Treasury: 5.11% · Sep 23, 202610-year Treasury: 5.18% · Sep 24, 202610-year Treasury: 5.17% · Sep 25, 202610-year Treasury: 5.24% · Sep 28, 202610-year Treasury: 5.26% · Sep 29, 202610-year Treasury: 5.29% · Sep 30, 202610-year Treasury: 5.24% · Oct 1, 202610-year Treasury: 5.28% · Oct 2, 202610-year Treasury: 5.31% · Oct 5, 202610-year Treasury: 5.27% · Oct 6, 202610-year Treasury: 5.28% · Oct 7, 202610-year Treasury: 5.22% · Oct 8, 202610-year Treasury: 5.24% · Oct 9, 202610-year Treasury: 5.21% · Oct 13, 202610-year Treasury: 5.19% · Oct 14, 202610-year Treasury: 5.10% · Oct 15, 202610-year Treasury: 5.09% · Oct 16, 202610-year Treasury: 5.15% · Oct 19, 202610-year Treasury: 5.12% · Oct 20, 202610-year Treasury: 5.13% · Oct 21, 202610-year Treasury: 4.96% · Oct 22, 202610-year Treasury: 5.00% · Oct 23, 202610-year Treasury: 5.00% · Oct 26, 202610-year Treasury: 4.99% · Oct 27, 202610-year Treasury: 5.05% · Oct 28, 202610-year Treasury: 4.98% · Oct 29, 202610-year Treasury: 4.94% · Oct 30, 202610-year Treasury: 4.91% · Nov 2, 202610-year Treasury: 4.95% · Nov 3, 202610-year Treasury: 4.90% · Nov 4, 202610-year Treasury: 4.84% · Nov 5, 202610-year Treasury: 4.86% · Nov 6, 202610-year Treasury: 4.88% · Nov 9, 202610-year Treasury: 4.98% · Nov 10, 2026Jun 30, 2026Sep 30, 2026Dec 30, 2026
30-year fixed mortgage19 observations10-year Treasury93 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The future portion of the window has no observations. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$2,001.96/month

7.03% · Sep 24, 2026

At the later reference$2,044.49/month

7.24% · Oct 29, 2026

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $42.54 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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