GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 1st Quarter 2026
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the…
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis3 min read
Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →
Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. For more information, refer to the "Technical Notes" below.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were investment, exports, government spending, and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
GDP by industry
From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected increases in real value added of 7.5 percent for government, 4.5 percent for private goods-producing industries, and 0.8 percent for private services-producing industries. The leading industry contributors to the increase in real GDP were information; federal government; professional, scientific, and technical services; and durable goods manufacturing. The leading offsets were decreases in retail trade, wholesale trade, and finance and insurance.
Related economic measures
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.7 percentage point from the previous estimate.
Real gross output increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter, reflecting increases of 4.9 percent for government, 1.7 percent for private services-producing industries, and less than 0.1 percent for private goods-producing industries.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.2 percent in the first quarter, revised up 0.3 percentage point from the previous estimate. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point.
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $74.4 billion in the first quarter, revised up $34.0 billion.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter, revised up 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4.6 percent, also revised up 0.1 percentage point, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 4.4 percent, the same as previously estimated.
GDP by state
From a regional perspective, real GDP increased in 46 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2026, with the percent change at an annual rate ranging from 4.5 percent in Washington state to –1.6 percent in South Dakota and remaining unchanged in Delaware.
Information was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in Washington state. Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting was the leading contributor to the decrease in South Dakota.
Personal income by state
In the first quarter of 2026, current-dollar personal income increased $222.6 billion, or 3.4 percent at an annual rate. Personal income increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia, with the percent change at an annual rate in current-dollar personal income ranging from 22.4 percent in North Dakota to –23.9 percent in Hawaii.
Earnings (compensation plus proprietors’ income) increased in 46 states. The percent change in earnings ranged from 34.7 percent in North Dakota to –1.5 percent in the District of Columbia.
Personal current transfer receipts increased in 45 states and the District of Columbia. The percent change in transfer receipts ranged from 15.5 percent in Minnesota to –75.7 percent in Hawaii. The decrease in transfer receipts in Hawaii reflected a settlement paid to households in the fourth quarter of 2025, related to the 2023 Maui wildfire.
Property income (dividends, interest, and rent) increased in 50 states and the District of Columbia. The percent change ranged from 5.5 percent in Idaho to 3.2 percent in Alaska.
Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.
MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context
The mortgage market around this release
This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.
Distinguish annualized growth from growth over a year
Real GDP measures inflation-adjusted production. BEA usually reports quarter-to-quarter growth at an annualized pace: the result if that quarter’s growth continued for four quarters, rather than the actual change over the past year. Check whether the article is an advance, second or third estimate and which quarter it covers. Additional data and later annual updates can change earlier estimates. Read consumer spending, investment and other components alongside the headline. The benchmark window supplies historical context; it does not identify the report’s effect on mortgage rates. BEA GDP definitions, statistical conventions and revisions.
Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.
What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan
At the publication reference$1,894.23/month
6.49% · Jun 25, 2026
At the later reference$1,912.02/month
6.58% · Jul 23, 2026
The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $17.78 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.
Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.
Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®: available observations from Apr 2, 1971 through Nov 5, 2026. Cached history snapshot. History retrieved or verified Nov 11, 2026.
U.S. Department of the Treasury: available observations from Jan 4, 2016 through Nov 10, 2026. Cached history snapshot. History retrieved or verified Nov 11, 2026.
The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.
Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.