Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2016 (second estimate)

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 1.9 percent. With the second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; the increase in personal consumption expenditures was larger and increases in state and local government spending and in nonresidential fixed investment were smaller than previously estimated (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. These increases were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports, an acceleration in imports, and a downturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in private inventory investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending.

Current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $180.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $18,855.5 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.0 percent, or $225.2 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent (appendix table A).

Updates to GDP

The percent change in real GDP was the same as previously estimated. An upward revision to PCE was offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending and to nonresidential fixed investment. For more information, see the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, see the “Additional Information” section that follows.

Advance Estimate Second Estimate

2016 GDP

Real GDP increased 1.6 percent in 2016 (that is, from the 2015 annual level to the 2016 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in 2015 (table 1). Revisions to 2016 real GDP from the advance estimate did not affect the 1.6 percent rate of increase.

The increase in real GDP in 2016 reflected positive contributions from PCE, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP from 2015 to 2016 reflected downturns in private inventory investment and in nonresidential fixed investment and decelerations in PCE, in residential fixed investment and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and accelerations in federal government spending and in exports.

Current-dollar GDP increased 2.9 percent, or $529.0 billion, in 2016 to a level of $18,565.6 billion, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent, or $643.5 billion, in 2015 (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.0 percent in 2016, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in 2015 (table 4).

During 2016 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2016), real GDP increased 1.9 percent, the same rate as during 2015. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent during 2016, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent during 2015 (table 7).