Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Economy · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2015 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2015 (revised estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

THE PRIMARY SOURCE

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.7 percent. With the third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 2).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Real GDP increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter, after increasing 0.6 percent in the first. The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected an upturn in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a deceleration in imports, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in private inventory investment and in federal government spending.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) -- the value of the costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of goods and services in the nation’s economy -- increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in the first. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in the first.

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the first.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 6.1 percent, or $264.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $17,913.7 billion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 0.8 percent, or $33.3 billion.

Revisions

The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to PCE, to nonresidential fixed investment, and to residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. For information on revisions, see "The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) increased $70.4 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $123.0 billion in the first.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $34.6 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $23.4 billion in the first. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $24.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $70.5 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $11.4 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $29.0 billion. This measure is calculated as the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world. In the second quarter, receipts increased $24.9 billion, and payments increased $13.4 billion.

Taxes on corporate income increased $31.3 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $5.5 billion in the first. Profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj increased $39.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $128.4 billion.

Dividends increased $1.2 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $6.3 billion in the first. Undistributed profits increased $38.0 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $134.7 billion. Net cash flow with IVA -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $48.1 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $135.5 billion.

The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts. The IVA decreased $78.7 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $45.7 billion in the first. The CCAdj increased $7.7 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $208.1 billion.

Corporate profits with IVA

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $34.3 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $3.1 billion in the first. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $17.0 billion, compared with an increase of $117.3 billion. The second-quarter increase in profits of nonfinancial corporations primarily reflected an increase in “other” nonfinancial industries that was partly offset by a decrease in retail trade industries. A small increase in manufacturing industries reflected an increase in durable goods that was mostly offset by a decrease in nondurable goods.

Gross value added of nonfinancial domestic corporate business

Real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations decreased slightly in the second quarter. Profits per unit of real value added increased, reflecting an increase in unit prices and a decrease in unit nonlabor costs that were partly offset by an increase in unit labor costs.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Sep 25, 2015.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Distinguish annualized growth from growth over a year

Real GDP measures inflation-adjusted production. BEA usually reports quarter-to-quarter growth at an annualized pace: the result if that quarter’s growth continued for four quarters, rather than the actual change over the past year. Check whether the article is an advance, second or third estimate and which quarter it covers. Additional data and later annual updates can change earlier estimates. Read consumer spending, investment and other components alongside the headline. The benchmark window supplies historical context; it does not identify the report’s effect on mortgage rates. BEA GDP definitions, statistical conventions and revisions.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierAug 26, 2015Publication referenceSep 25, 201530 days laterOct 25, 2015
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®3.93%Observed 3.86%Observed −7 bps vs. earlier reference3.79%Observed −7 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the TreasuryUnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Jun 25, 2015 – Dec 25, 2015
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Sep 25, 2015Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.3.50%4.00%4.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 4.02% · Jun 25, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.08% · Jul 2, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.04% · Jul 9, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.09% · Jul 16, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 4.04% · Jul 23, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.98% · Jul 30, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.91% · Aug 6, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.94% · Aug 13, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.93% · Aug 20, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.84% · Aug 27, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.89% · Sep 3, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.90% · Sep 10, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.91% · Sep 17, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.86% · Sep 24, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.85% · Oct 1, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Oct 8, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.82% · Oct 15, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.79% · Oct 22, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.76% · Oct 29, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.87% · Nov 5, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.98% · Nov 12, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Nov 19, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Nov 25, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.93% · Dec 3, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · Dec 10, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Dec 17, 201530-year fixed mortgage: 3.96% · Dec 24, 2015Jun 25, 2015Sep 25, 2015Dec 25, 2015
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,408.14/month

3.86% · Sep 24, 2015

At the later reference$1,396.16/month

3.79% · Oct 22, 2015

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $11.97 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

Understand the Treasury–mortgage relationship →See current advertised mortgage options →