Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Economy · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

2025 Third Quarter (Preliminary) Productivity and Costs

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 5.4 percent and hours worked increased 0.5 percent. (All quarterly…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain source. Statistical tables, standard technical appendices, administrative material and attendance rosters are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's historical context and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete document.

Third Quarter 2025, Preliminary

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 5.4 percent and hours worked increased 0.5 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annualized rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025. (See tables A1 and 2.)

Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector decreased 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a 2.9-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 4.9-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 1.2 percent over the last four quarters. (See tables A1 and 2.)

BLS calculates unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity. Increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor costs and increases in productivity tend to reduce them. Real hourly compensation, which takes into account consumer prices, decreased 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2025, and increased 0.3 percent over the last four quarters.

Historical Revisions Data in this release reflect the 2025 annual update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce on September 25, 2025. See “Revised measures” section.

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all workers, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers. During the current business cycle, starting in the fourth quarter of 2019, labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent, reflecting a 2.6-percent rate of growth in output and a 0.6-percent rate of growth in hours worked.

The 2.0-percent annualized rate of nonfarm business productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is higher than the 1.5-percent rate of the previous business cycle, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019, and is just below the long-term rate of 2.1 percent since the first quarter of 1947.

Manufacturing sector labor productivity increased 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025, as output increased 2.6 percent and hours worked decreased 0.7 percent. In the durable manufacturing sector, productivity increased 4.7 percent, reflecting a 3.0-percent increase in output and a 1.7-percent decrease in hours worked. Nondurable manufacturing sector productivity increased 1.2 percent, as output increased 2.1 percent and hours worked increased 1.0 percent. Total manufacturing sector productivity increased 2.3 percent from the same quarter a year ago. This is the largest four-quarter gain in manufacturing productivity since the second quarter of 2021, when it increased 4.9 percent. (See tables A1, 3, 4, and 5.)

Unit labor costs in the total manufacturing sector increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a 4.8-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 3.3-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 0.6 percent in the durable goods sector and increased 2.8 percent in nondurable goods industries. Manufacturing unit labor costs increased 1.3 percent from the same quarter a year ago. (See tables A1 and 3.)

Manufacturing sector labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 0.4 percent during the current business cycle, as output has increased 0.1 percent and hours have declined 0.3 percent. The 0.4- percent annualized rate of productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is above the 0.1- percent rate of the previous business cycle from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019 and is below the long-term rate of 2.1 percent since the first quarter of 1987.

The concepts, sources, and methods used for the manufacturing output series differ from those used in the business and nonfarm business output series; these output measures are not directly comparable. See the Technical Notes for a more detailed explanation.

Nonfinancial corporate sector labor productivity increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2025, as output increased 3.7 percent and hours worked increased 0.7 percent. Productivity increased 2.8 percent over the last four quarters. Unit labor costs in the nonfinancial corporate sector increased 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a 3.6-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 3.0-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 1.3 percent over the last four quarters. Unit profits of nonfinancial corporations increased 6.6 percent in the third quarter of 2025 and decreased 0.3 percent over the last four quarters. (See tables A2 and 6.)

Revised measures

Measures of output for the business, nonfarm business, and nonfinancial corporate sectors, and measures of compensation for all sectors, incorporate the 2025 Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data released on September 25, 2025, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce. As a result, all measures incorporating output, including labor productivity and unit labor costs, were revised back to 2020 for the business, nonfarm business, and nonfinancial corporate sectors. Quarterly and annual measures incorporating compensation were subject to revision back to 2018 for the business and nonfarm business sectors, and back to 2020 for the nonfinancial corporate and manufacturing sectors. Updated source data on output and compensation released by BEA on December 23, 2025, are reflected in revisions to data for the second quarter of 2025.

Hours worked and related measures for the business and nonfarm business sectors were subject to revision back to 2018 due to revised NIPA data on government enterprises employment and on the proportion of industry compensation paid to employees of nonprofit institutions; the proportion of industry compensation paid is used as an approximation of the proportion of hours worked by those employees, which are removed from nonfarm business hours worked. Hours worked and related measures for the nonfinancial corporate sector were subject to revision back to 2006, with notable revisions only back to 2019 due to the incorporation of revised NIPA data on the proportion of industry compensation paid to employees of corporations, used in the estimation of hours worked for nonfinancial corporations.

Measures of output for the total, durable, and nondurable manufacturing sectors incorporate revised annual benchmark data from 1987 to 2022 released December 19 by BLS. Manufacturing output also reflects the 2025 Historical and Annual Revision to the indexes of industrial production (IP) published November 24, and the update to those indexes published December 23, by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

There were revisions to quarterly growth rates of nonfarm business labor productivity during the current business cycle, starting in the fourth quarter of 2019. The largest negative and positive revisions occurred consecutively in the first and second quarters of 2024, with a downward revision of 1.1 percentage point and an upward revision of 0.9 percentage point, respectively. There were no revisions prior to the first quarter of 2020 in this measure.

The overall effect of these quarterly revisions over the period from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2025 was to raise the annualized productivity growth rate by 0.1 percentage point, from 1.8 percent to 1.9 percent. These revisions are also reflected in the 0.2-percentage point upward revision to the nonfarm business labor productivity growth rate during the current business cycle (which now goes through the third quarter of 2025), from a previously published rate of 1.8 percent to a revised rate of 2.0 percent. This business cycle rate is higher than the previously published estimate due to both the historical revisions as well as the high rate of growth in the third quarter.

Nonfarm business sector productivity in the second quarter of 2025 increased 4.1 percent--a 0.8- percentage point upward revision from the preliminary estimate of a 3.3-percent increase--reflecting a 0.8-percentage point upward revision to output and a 0.1-percentage point downward revision to hours worked. The four-quarter change from second-quarter 2024 to second-quarter 2025 in nonfarm business sector labor productivity was unrevised at 1.5 percent, as both output and hours worked were revised down by 0.1 percentage point. Unit labor costs decreased 2.9 percent in the second quarter of 2025 rather than increasing 1.0 percent as previously reported, reflecting a 3.2-percentage point downward revision to hourly compensation and a 0.8-percentage point upward revision to productivity.

Manufacturing sector productivity for the second quarter of 2025 was revised up to an increase of 2.9 percent from a previously reported increase of 2.5 percent, reflecting a 0.5-percentage point upward revision to output and a 0.1-percentage point upward revision to hours worked. Durable manufacturing sector productivity was revised up 1.1 percentage point to an increase of 4.3 percent; nondurable manufacturing sector productivity was revised down 0.3 percentage point to an increase of 1.6 percent. Total manufacturing unit labor costs was revised down 0.9 percentage point to an increase of 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2025.

Nonfinancial corporate sector productivity increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2025, rather than the previously published estimate of a 5.7-percent increase. This revision results from a 1.2- percentage point downward revision to output and a 0.1-percentage point downward revision to hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfinancial corporate sector were revised down 0.6 percentage point to a decrease of 2.7 percent in the second quarter of 2025, as hourly compensation was revised down 1.7 percentage points and productivity was revised down 1.1 percentage points. (See table B1.) Historical revisions to output and hours in the nonfinancial corporate sector resulted in a 0.5-percentage point downward revision to the annualized labor productivity growth rate during the current business cycle to 2.1 percent, slightly below the long-term rate of 2.3 percent since the start of 1947.

Annual averages

In the nonfarm business sector, annual average productivity increased 2.8 percent in 2024, and annual average unit labor costs increased 2.4 percent, both as previously published. Productivity was revised up 0.2 percentage point to a 2.0-percent increase in 2023, due to a 0.2-percentage point upward revision to output. Unit labor costs were revised down 0.2 percentage point in 2023 and also increased 2.0 percent. (See table C1.)

Annual average manufacturing sector productivity was revised down 0.5 percentage point in 2024, to an increase of 0.1 percent, due to a downward revision to output; hours worked were unrevised. The downward revision to productivity combined with a 0.9-percentage point upward revision to hourly compensation to yield a 1.5-percentage point upward revision to unit labor costs, to an increase of 4.7 percent in 2024. In 2023, labor productivity was unrevised, but a 0.6-percentage point downward revision in hourly compensation led to a similar downward revision to manufacturing unit labor costs, which increased 4.5 percent. Manufacturing output and productivity were both revised down 0.8- percentage point in 2022, resulting in an output increase of 1.9 percent and a productivity decrease of 2.1 percent. The downward revision to productivity was partially offset by a 0.5-percent downward revision to hourly compensation, and unit labor costs were revised up 0.3 percentage point, to an increase of 4.9 percent. (See table C1.)

In the nonfinancial corporate sector, productivity was revised down 1.7 percentage points to a 2.6 percent increase in 2024. This stemmed from a 1.8-percentage point downward revision to output; hours worked were unrevised. Unit labor costs were revised up 1.3 percentage point to an increase of 2.6 percent, reflecting a 0.3-percentage point downward revision to hourly compensation and the 1.7 percentage point downward revision to productivity. Nonfinancial corporate sector labor productivity was revised up by 0.3 percentage point in 2023 and was revised down by 0.4 percentage point in 2022, reflecting similar revisions to output, as hours worked were unrevised. (See tables C1 and 6.)

Quarterly and annual data for all sectors for recent years appear in tables 1-6. Full historical annual and quarterly measures can be found at www.bls.gov/productivity/tables/.

Federal Government Shutdown Publication of this Productivity and Costs Third Quarter 2025, Preliminary release was delayed due to a lapse in appropriations. Productivity data is not collected directly, rather it is calculated using source data from other BLS programs and government agencies. Once all required source data became available, data presented in this release were produced.

Subsequent data releases may also be delayed. Revised release dates will be posted at www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm as they become available.

Durable Previous quarter 4.7 3.0 -1.7 5.4 2.2 0.6 manufacturing A year ago 3.3 2.6 -0.7 4.3 1.3 1.0

Nondurable Previous quarter 1.2 2.1 1.0 4.0 0.9 2.8 manufacturing A year ago 1.1 0.9 -0.1 2.3 -0.6 1.2

Nonfinancial Previous quarter 3.0 3.7 0.7 3.6 0.5 0.6 corporate A year ago 2.8 3.6 0.8 4.2 1.2 1.3

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Original release Jan 8, 2026.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate output per hour from compensation per unit

Labor productivity measures real output per hour worked. Unit labor costs relate labor compensation to output, so a change in hourly pay alone does not describe the change in cost per unit produced. Check the sector, whether a quarterly percentage change has been annualized, and how it differs from the change over four quarters. Revisions to output and hours can alter earlier estimates. Productivity and costs help describe the economy’s supply conditions; the historical rate comparison does not measure this release’s isolated effect. BLS Productivity and Costs.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierDec 9, 2025Publication referenceJan 8, 202630 days laterFeb 7, 2026
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®6.19%Observed 6.16%Observed −3 bps vs. earlier reference6.11%Observed −5 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury4.18%Observed 4.19%Observed +1 bps vs. earlier reference4.22%Observed +3 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Oct 8, 2025 – Apr 8, 2026
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Jan 8, 2026Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.3.50%5.00%6.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 6.30% · Oct 9, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.27% · Oct 16, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.19% · Oct 23, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.17% · Oct 30, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.22% · Nov 6, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.24% · Nov 13, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.26% · Nov 20, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.23% · Nov 26, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.19% · Dec 4, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.22% · Dec 11, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.21% · Dec 18, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.18% · Dec 24, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.15% · Dec 31, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.16% · Jan 8, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.06% · Jan 15, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.09% · Jan 22, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.10% · Jan 29, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.11% · Feb 5, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.09% · Feb 12, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.01% · Feb 19, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 5.98% · Feb 26, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.00% · Mar 5, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.11% · Mar 12, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.22% · Mar 19, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.38% · Mar 26, 202630-year fixed mortgage: 6.46% · Apr 2, 202610-year Treasury: 4.13% · Oct 8, 202510-year Treasury: 4.14% · Oct 9, 202510-year Treasury: 4.05% · Oct 10, 202510-year Treasury: 4.03% · Oct 14, 202510-year Treasury: 4.05% · Oct 15, 202510-year Treasury: 3.99% · Oct 16, 202510-year Treasury: 4.02% · Oct 17, 202510-year Treasury: 4.00% · Oct 20, 202510-year Treasury: 3.98% · Oct 21, 202510-year Treasury: 3.97% · Oct 22, 202510-year Treasury: 4.01% · Oct 23, 202510-year Treasury: 4.02% · Oct 24, 202510-year Treasury: 4.01% · Oct 27, 202510-year Treasury: 3.99% · Oct 28, 202510-year Treasury: 4.08% · Oct 29, 202510-year Treasury: 4.11% · Oct 30, 202510-year Treasury: 4.11% · Oct 31, 202510-year Treasury: 4.13% · Nov 3, 202510-year Treasury: 4.10% · Nov 4, 202510-year Treasury: 4.17% · Nov 5, 202510-year Treasury: 4.11% · Nov 6, 202510-year Treasury: 4.11% · Nov 7, 202510-year Treasury: 4.13% · Nov 10, 202510-year Treasury: 4.08% · Nov 12, 202510-year Treasury: 4.11% · Nov 13, 202510-year Treasury: 4.14% · Nov 14, 202510-year Treasury: 4.13% · Nov 17, 202510-year Treasury: 4.12% · Nov 18, 202510-year Treasury: 4.13% · Nov 19, 202510-year Treasury: 4.10% · Nov 20, 202510-year Treasury: 4.06% · Nov 21, 202510-year Treasury: 4.04% · Nov 24, 202510-year Treasury: 4.01% · Nov 25, 202510-year Treasury: 4.00% · Nov 26, 202510-year Treasury: 4.02% · Nov 28, 202510-year Treasury: 4.09% · Dec 1, 202510-year Treasury: 4.09% · Dec 2, 202510-year Treasury: 4.06% · Dec 3, 202510-year Treasury: 4.11% · Dec 4, 202510-year Treasury: 4.14% · Dec 5, 202510-year Treasury: 4.17% · Dec 8, 202510-year Treasury: 4.18% · Dec 9, 202510-year Treasury: 4.13% · Dec 10, 202510-year Treasury: 4.14% · Dec 11, 202510-year Treasury: 4.19% · Dec 12, 202510-year Treasury: 4.18% · Dec 15, 202510-year Treasury: 4.15% · Dec 16, 202510-year Treasury: 4.16% · Dec 17, 202510-year Treasury: 4.12% · Dec 18, 202510-year Treasury: 4.16% · Dec 19, 202510-year Treasury: 4.17% · Dec 22, 202510-year Treasury: 4.18% · Dec 23, 202510-year Treasury: 4.15% · Dec 24, 202510-year Treasury: 4.14% · Dec 26, 202510-year Treasury: 4.12% · Dec 29, 202510-year Treasury: 4.14% · Dec 30, 202510-year Treasury: 4.18% · Dec 31, 202510-year Treasury: 4.19% · Jan 2, 202610-year Treasury: 4.17% · Jan 5, 202610-year Treasury: 4.18% · Jan 6, 202610-year Treasury: 4.15% · Jan 7, 202610-year Treasury: 4.19% · Jan 8, 202610-year Treasury: 4.18% · Jan 9, 202610-year Treasury: 4.19% · Jan 12, 202610-year Treasury: 4.18% · Jan 13, 202610-year Treasury: 4.15% · Jan 14, 202610-year Treasury: 4.17% · Jan 15, 202610-year Treasury: 4.24% · Jan 16, 202610-year Treasury: 4.30% · Jan 20, 202610-year Treasury: 4.26% · Jan 21, 202610-year Treasury: 4.26% · Jan 22, 202610-year Treasury: 4.24% · Jan 23, 202610-year Treasury: 4.22% · Jan 26, 202610-year Treasury: 4.24% · Jan 27, 202610-year Treasury: 4.26% · Jan 28, 202610-year Treasury: 4.24% · Jan 29, 202610-year Treasury: 4.26% · Jan 30, 202610-year Treasury: 4.29% · Feb 2, 202610-year Treasury: 4.28% · Feb 3, 202610-year Treasury: 4.29% · Feb 4, 202610-year Treasury: 4.21% · Feb 5, 202610-year Treasury: 4.22% · Feb 6, 202610-year Treasury: 4.22% · Feb 9, 202610-year Treasury: 4.16% · Feb 10, 202610-year Treasury: 4.18% · Feb 11, 202610-year Treasury: 4.09% · Feb 12, 202610-year Treasury: 4.04% · Feb 13, 202610-year Treasury: 4.05% · Feb 17, 202610-year Treasury: 4.09% · Feb 18, 202610-year Treasury: 4.08% · Feb 19, 202610-year Treasury: 4.08% · Feb 20, 202610-year Treasury: 4.03% · Feb 23, 202610-year Treasury: 4.04% · Feb 24, 202610-year Treasury: 4.05% · Feb 25, 202610-year Treasury: 4.02% · Feb 26, 202610-year Treasury: 3.97% · Feb 27, 202610-year Treasury: 4.05% · Mar 2, 202610-year Treasury: 4.06% · Mar 3, 202610-year Treasury: 4.09% · Mar 4, 202610-year Treasury: 4.13% · Mar 5, 202610-year Treasury: 4.15% · Mar 6, 202610-year Treasury: 4.12% · Mar 9, 202610-year Treasury: 4.15% · Mar 10, 202610-year Treasury: 4.21% · Mar 11, 202610-year Treasury: 4.27% · Mar 12, 202610-year Treasury: 4.28% · Mar 13, 202610-year Treasury: 4.23% · Mar 16, 202610-year Treasury: 4.20% · Mar 17, 202610-year Treasury: 4.26% · Mar 18, 202610-year Treasury: 4.25% · Mar 19, 202610-year Treasury: 4.39% · Mar 20, 202610-year Treasury: 4.34% · Mar 23, 202610-year Treasury: 4.39% · Mar 24, 202610-year Treasury: 4.33% · Mar 25, 202610-year Treasury: 4.42% · Mar 26, 202610-year Treasury: 4.44% · Mar 27, 202610-year Treasury: 4.35% · Mar 30, 202610-year Treasury: 4.30% · Mar 31, 202610-year Treasury: 4.33% · Apr 1, 202610-year Treasury: 4.31% · Apr 2, 202610-year Treasury: 4.35% · Apr 3, 202610-year Treasury: 4.34% · Apr 6, 202610-year Treasury: 4.33% · Apr 7, 202610-year Treasury: 4.29% · Apr 8, 2026Oct 8, 2025Jan 8, 2026Apr 8, 2026
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations10-year Treasury124 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,829.63/month

6.16% · Jan 8, 2026

At the later reference$1,819.92/month

6.11% · Feb 5, 2026

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $9.70 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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