January 2019 U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes

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U.S. import prices fell 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 1.0-percent drop in December and a 1.7-percent decrease in November. Both fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the January decline. Prices for U.S. exports decreased 0.6 percent for the second consecutive month in January.

Imports

Prices for U.S. imports declined 0.5 percent in January and 3.1 percent over the last 3 months. The 3-month drop was the largest decrease since the index fell 3.1 percent from July 2015 to October 2015. Import prices decreased 1.7 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year decline since the index fell 2.2 percent in August 2016. (See table 1.)

Fuel Imports: Import fuel prices decreased 3.2 percent in January and 22.5 percent over the past 3 months, the largest drop over a 3-month period since the index fell 29.2 percent for the 3 months ended in February 2016. The January drop was primarily driven by a 44.2-percent drop in natural gas prices; petroleum prices edged down 0.1 percent. The decline in natural gas prices followed a 138.8-percent increase over the fourth quarter of 2018. Fuel prices decreased 14.4 percent over the past year. A 14.5-percent drop in petroleum prices and a 20.0-percent decline in prices for natural gas each contributed to the overall decrease in fuel prices from January 2018 to January 2019.

All Imports Excluding Fuel: The price index for nonfuel imports fell 0.2 percent in January. The January decrease was led by falling prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials; consumer goods; automotive vehicles; and foods, feeds, and beverages which more than offset higher prices for capital goods. Import prices excluding fuel also declined 0.2 percent over the past year.

Nonfuel Industrial Supplies and Materials: Prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials decreased 0.7 percent in January, driven by lower prices for unfinished metals and chemicals.

Finished Goods: Finished goods prices were mostly down in January. Consumer goods prices fell 0.3 percent and prices for automotive vehicles declined 0.2 percent. Capital goods prices ticked up 0.1 percent.

Foods, Feeds, and Beverages: The price index for foods, feeds, and beverages declined 0.3 percent in January. An 11.2-percent drop in vegetable prices more than offset an 8.2-percent rise in fruit prices.

Exports

Prices for U.S. exports decreased 0.6 percent in January, after falling 0.6 percent in December and 0.8 percent in November. Export prices have only recorded one monthly advance since June. In January, both nonagricultural prices and agricultural prices contributed to the decline. The price index for overall exports decreased 0.2 percent for the year ended in January, the first 12-month decline since the index fell 0.2 percent in November 2016. (See table 2.)

Agricultural Exports: Agricultural export prices declined 2.1 percent in January, the largest monthly decrease since the index fell 5.2 percent in July. The January drop followed increases of 3.8 percent in December and 1.7 percent in November. A 34.6-percent fall in export vegetable prices drove the January decline in agricultural prices. Despite the January drop, export agricultural prices advanced 0.2 percent over the past year.

All Exports Excluding Agriculture: The price index for nonagricultural exports declined 0.3 percent in January, after falling 1.1 percent in December and 1.0 percent in November. Decreasing prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and consumer goods more than offset higher prices for capital goods and automotive vehicles. Prices for nonagricultural exports fell 0.2 percent from January 2018 to January 2019, the first decrease over a 12-month period since the index declined 0.2 percent in November 2016. The drop over the past 12 months was driven by a 2.4-percent decrease in nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices.

Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies and Materials: Prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials decreased 1.4 percent in January following a 3.4-percent decline the previous month. The January drop was led by a 3.4-percent decline in fuel prices.

Finished Goods: Finished goods prices were mixed in January. Prices for capital goods advanced 0.4 percent, the largest monthly increase for the index since a 0.6-percent rise in April. The price index for automotive vehicles ticked up 0.1 percent. In contrast, consumer goods prices fell 0.4 percent, the largest decline since the index decreased 1.0 percent in January 2017.

Measures of Import and Export Prices by Locality

Imports by Locality of Origin: Prices for imports from China declined 0.3 percent in January, after edging down 0.1 percent in each of the 2 previous months. The January decline was the largest monthly drop since the index fell 0.3 percent in September 2017. The price index for imports from Canada fell 1.5 percent and import prices from Mexico decreased 1.0 percent in January. Lower fuel prices factored into the declines for imports from both countries. In contrast, import prices from Japan ticked up 0.1 percent in January following 0.1-percent declines in December and November. Prices for imports from the European Union increased 0.2 percent in January following declines of 0.1 percent in December and 0.4 percent in November. (See table 7.)

Exports by Locality of Destination: Export prices to China declined 0.5 percent in January, after decreasing 0.8 percent the previous month. Lower prices for manufactured exports more than offset higher nonmanufactured export prices. Prices for exports to Japan fell 1.0 percent in January following a 0.4- percent drop in December. The January decline was the largest monthly decrease since the index was introduced in December 2017. The price index for exports to Canada decreased 2.8 percent in January and prices for exports to Mexico declined 1.3 percent over the same period. In contrast, export prices to the European Union increased 0.5 percent in January, after falling 0.6 percent the previous month. (See table 8.)

Terms of Trade Indexes: Terms of Trade indexes are based on country, region, or grouping and measure the change in the purchasing power of exports relative to imports. The U.S. terms of trade with China fell 0.2 percent in January following a 0.7-percent drop in December. For both months, the terms of trade fell because export prices to China declined at a higher rate than import prices from China. The U.S. terms of trade with Japan decreased 1.1 percent in January, the largest monthly decline since the index was first published in December 2017. Lower export prices to Japan and rising import prices from Japan both contributed to the January drop in the terms of trade. The index of U.S. terms of trade with Canada fell 1.4 percent in January following a 4.7-percent increase in December and a 7.7-percent rise in November. The U.S. terms of trade with Mexico declined 0.2 percent in January. In contrast, the U.S. terms of trade with the European Union rose 0.2 percent in January. (See table 9.)

Import and Export Services

Imports: Import air passenger fares declined 3.8 percent in January, after a 7.6-percent advance the previous month. In January, the decrease was driven by a 12.3-percent drop in Asian fares and a 16.7- percent fall in Latin American/Caribbean fares. Despite the January drop, import air passenger fares rose 1.2 percent over the past 12 months. The price index for import air freight fell 1.1 percent in January following a 3.2-percent drop in December. Despite the recent declines, import air freight prices increased 4.7 percent for the year ended in January. (See table 10.)

Exports: The index for export air passenger fares rose 7.0 percent in January, the largest monthly advance since the index rose 7.9 percent in December 2016. The increase was led by a 14.6-percent rise in Latin American/Caribbean fares and a 12.5-percent advance in Asian fares. Export air passenger fares fell 2.9 percent over the past year. Export air freight prices increased 1.5 percent in January and 5.2 percent over the past 12 months.

Import and Export Price Index data for February are scheduled for release on Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

Impact of the Temporary Lapse in Government Spending

The temporary lapse in government appropriations impacted some of the prices collected by the International Price Program. Farm Services Data published monthly by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and used to calculate export price indexes were not available for soybeans, corn, wheat, sorghum, and barley. The January prices for those products were estimated using price data from another USDA survey produced by the Agricultural Marketing Service. The related detailed price indexes for January thus do not meet the International Price Program criteria for publication. The estimates will not impact the accuracy of the price indexes at broader product categories.

The following detailed product category indexes are solely or mostly derived from estimated prices and will not be published in January. The indexes for export grains will resume publication with the February indexes released on March 14, 2019.

Bureau of Economic Analysis End Use Classification System

Q000 - Wheat and Rice Q00000 - Wheat Q001 - Soybeans & Other Oil Seeds Q00100 - Soybeans and Soybean by-Products, Prior to the Extraction of Oil Q00200 - Corn Q00210 - Other Feedgrains

Harmonized Classification System

D10 - Cereals D1001 - Wheat and Meslin D1005 - Corn (Maize) D12 - Oilseeds and Miscellaneous Grains, Seeds, Fruits, Plants, Straw and Fodder D1201 - Soybeans, Whether or not Broken

North American Industry Classification System