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Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

January 1997 U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes

The U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.3 percent in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The decline followed a slight gain of 0.1 percent in December and was attributable to a drop in…

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-JANUARY 1997-

The U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.3 percent in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The decline followed a slight gain of 0.1 percent in December and was attributable to a drop in nonpetroleum prices. The U.S. Export Price Index rose 0.2 percent in January after posting no change in the previous month.

January 95-96 2.4 9.7 1.8 3.1 19.3 1.0 January 96-97 0.8 27.0 -1.9 -1.5 -8.3 -0.5 r = revised to reflect late reports and corrections by respondents. Revisions prior to October 1996 are due to rounding associated with rebasing the indexes.

Import Goods

Import prices decreased in January for the second time in three months, despite a continued upward trend in petroleum prices. The petroleum index rose 1.3 percent in January after recording a modest gain of 0.2 percent in December. In contrast, the index for nonpetroleum imports declined in January, falling 0.4 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in December. The monthly decrease was the third in the past four months.

The index for capital goods led the January decline in nonpetroleum import prices, falling 1.8 percent, the largest monthly decrease recorded since the series became monthly in 1989. Falling prices for computers, peripherals, and semiconductors had the largest impact. Prices for capital goods have decreased 5.4 percent over the past 12 months, recording only one monthly increase in the past year. During this period, the dollar has appreciated sharply. The import price indexes for automotive vehicles and consumer goods resumed recent downward trends; both fell 0.1 percent in January after posting a 0.2 percent increase and no change, respectively, in the preceding month. The index for foods, feeds, and beverages also fell in January, decreasing 0.3 percent after falling 1.2 percent in December.

In contrast, the index for industrial supplies and materials excluding petroleum continued a recent upward trend, rising 1.0 percent in January after posting rises of 0.7 percent and 0.4 percent in the preceding two months. Despite the recent increases, the index fell 1.2 percent for the year ended in January.

Export Goods

Both agricultural and nonagricultural prices contributed to the modest rise in export prices in January. For the year ended in January, however, average export prices were down 1.5 percent. The index for agricultural exports, which had registered decreases in the past seven months, edged up 0.1 percent in January. The upturn was led by a 2.1 percent price increase for agricultural industrial supplies and materials, which offset the continued decline in grain prices. Agricultural export prices fell 8.3 percent over the past year.

Nonagricultural export prices also rose 0.1 percent in January, about the same as in the previous three months. Over the past 12 months, however, the index was down 0.5 percent. The January advance in the index for nonagricultural exports was consistent across major commodity areas. The export price indexes for capital goods and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines were both up 0.2 percent in January, after posting a 0.1 percent gain and no change in the previous month, respectively. Prices for exported consumer goods and nonagricultural industrial supplies also edged up in January, both advancing 0.1 percent after 0.2 percent rises in December. For the past 12 months, all of the major finished goods indexes rose on average between 0.1 and 1.2 percent, while nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials were down 2.8 percent on average.

Imports by Locality of Origin

Import prices from Japan continued to decrease, falling 0.6 percent in January. (See table 7.) The index has dropped 4.4 percent over the past year, paralleling the sustained strength of the dollar versus the yen.

The price index for imports from the Asian Newly Industrialized Countries decreased 0.4 percent for the third consecutive month. Over the past 12 months, the index was down 3.0 percent. Import prices from the European Union also fell 0.4 percent in January, reversing the 0.2 percent increase in December. Over the past 12 months this index edged up 0.6 percent.

In contrast, import prices from Canada rose for the fifth consecutive month, increasing 0.2 percent in January. The index for imports from Canada rose 0.5 percent for the year ended in January.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Original release Feb 25, 1997.

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MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Distinguish trade prices from trade volumes

Import and export price indexes track prices of goods and selected services traded between the United States and other countries. They do not measure how much is traded or the trade balance. Read imports separately from exports and compare fuel with nonfuel import prices where available; also distinguish a monthly movement from a twelve-month change. These measures describe one part of the pricing environment, rather than the household consumer basket. The rate observations below do not establish how much of a later change came from this release. BLS Import and Export Price Indexes overview.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierJan 26, 1997Publication referenceFeb 25, 199730 days laterMar 27, 1997
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®7.85%Observed 7.56%Observed −29 bps vs. earlier reference7.94%Observed +38 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the TreasuryUnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.UnavailableBefore available coverage, which starts Jan 4, 2016.

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Nov 25, 1996 – May 25, 1997
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Feb 25, 1997Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.7.00%7.75%8.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 7.52% · Nov 29, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.44% · Dec 6, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.57% · Dec 13, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.74% · Dec 20, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.64% · Dec 27, 199630-year fixed mortgage: 7.67% · Jan 3, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.85% · Jan 10, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.87% · Jan 17, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.85% · Jan 24, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.88% · Jan 31, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.74% · Feb 7, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.65% · Feb 14, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.56% · Feb 21, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.65% · Feb 28, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.84% · Mar 7, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.84% · Mar 14, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.94% · Mar 21, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.97% · Mar 28, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 8.18% · Apr 4, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 8.15% · Apr 11, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 8.16% · Apr 18, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 8.08% · Apr 25, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 8.01% · May 2, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.94% · May 9, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.91% · May 16, 199730-year fixed mortgage: 7.92% · May 23, 1997Nov 25, 1996Feb 25, 1997May 25, 1997
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$2,109.98/month

7.56% · Feb 21, 1997

At the later reference$2,188.76/month

7.94% · Mar 21, 1997

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $78.78 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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