November 2002 Employment Situation

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain source. Statistical tables, standard technical appendices, administrative material and attendance rosters are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's historical context and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete document.

Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job losses continued in manufacturing, but the services industry added workers.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons edged up to 8.5 million in November. The unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent, a level most recently reached in April. From May through October, the jobless rate remained within a range of 5.6 to 5.9 percent. In November, the unemployment rate for adult men rose by half a percentage point to 5.7 percent; rates for blacks (11.0 percent) and teenagers (16.8 percent) also were up over the month. The jobless rates for adult women (5.0 percent), whites (5.2 percent), and Hispanics (7.8 percent) showed little or no change. (See tables A-1 and A-2.)

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Total employment, as measured by the household survey, declined in November to 134.2 million, and the employment-population ratio dropped by 0.4 percentage point to 62.5 percent. Despite some large monthly swings, total employment has shown no net change over the year. (See table A-1.)

The civilian labor force, at 142.7 million in November, declined by 390,000 over the month, and has fallen by 544,000 since September. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.3 percentage point in November to 66.4 percent. (See table A-1.)

About 7.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) held more than one job in November. These multiple jobholders represented 5.3 percent of the total employed. (See table A-10.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

About 1.4 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in November, about the same as a year earlier. These individuals reported that they wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, however, because they had not actively searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers was 381,000 in November, also about unchanged from the same month a year earlier. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, were not looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available. (See table A-10.)

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-40,000) in November at 130.9 million. This followed a decline of 84,000 in September and an in- crease of 86,000 in October (as revised). Payroll employment had increased by 233,000 from April to August, after falling by 1.8 million from March 2001 to April 2002. (See table B-1.)

In November, manufacturing employment fell by 45,000. Factory job losses have averaged about 48,000 in the last 4 months, compared with losses of 20,000 a month from April to July. In November, factory job losses were widespread throughout durable goods manufacturing. Electronic equipment employment declined by 11,000. Over the last 2 years, employment in the industry has fallen by 388,000, or 22 percent. In November, transpor- tation equipment lost 11,000 jobs, mainly in aircraft manufacturing. Employ- ment in fabricated metals fell by 10,000 over the month and has declined by nearly 10 percent since July 2000.

Retail trade employment was down by 39,000 in November, after seasonal adjustment. This was due in part to less seasonal hiring than usual in November.

Employment continued to decline in the communications industry, which has lost 156,000 jobs since April 2001. Employment in electric, gas, and sanitary services fell by 6,000 in November. Transportation employment held steady over the month, with small offsetting movements within the component industries.

Construction employment was flat in November. Job gains in general build- ing contractors were offset by losses in heavy construction. Construction industry employment has shown no net growth since spring of this year.

Employment in the services industry rose by 50,000 in November. Health services added 27,000 jobs, with hospitals accounting for about half of this increase. Over the past 12 months, employment in the health services industry has risen by 278,000. In November, employment also rose in several other services industries, including engineering and management, agricultural services, and auto repair and parking services. Employment in help supply services decreased by 23,000 in November; this followed declines that totaled 65,000 in the prior 2 months. The industry had added 167,000 jobs from Feb- ruary to August.

In finance, employment continued to increase in mortgage brokerages (5,000) as refinancing activity maintained a healthy pace. Employment in mortgage brokerages has grown by 106,000 since its low point in January 2001.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in November at 34.2 hours, seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek and factory overtime also were unchanged at 40.7 hours and 4.1 hours, respectively. (See table B-2.)

The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in November at 148.1 (1982=100), seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing index was down by 0.4 percent over the month to 91.0. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 4 cents in November to $14.93, seasonally adjusted, following a similar increase (as revised) in October. Average weekly earnings rose by 0.3 percent over the month to $510.61. Over the year, average hourly earnings were up by 2.9 percent and average weekly earnings rose by 3.2 percent. (See table B-3.)

Feb. 7 May 2 Aug. 1 Nov. 7 March 7 June 6 Sept. 5 Dec. 5 April 4 July 3 Oct. 3

Upcoming Changes to Household and National Nonfarm Payroll Data Series

Household Data Series

Effective with the release of January 2003 data, several changes to the Current Population Survey (CPS) will affect estimates contained in the Employment Situation news release:

--Population controls that reflect the results of Census 2000 will be used in the monthly CPS estimation process. In addition, CPS data series from January 2000 through December 2002 will be revised to reflect the introduction of the Census 2000-based population controls.

--The questions on race and Hispanic origin in the CPS will be modified to comply with the new standards for federal statistical agencies. A major change under those standards is that respondents may select more than one race when answering the survey. Respondents will continue to be asked a separate question to determine if they are Hispanic. The Employment Situation news release will present data for persons who report they are white and no other race, black or African American and no other race, and Asian and no other race. Data will continue to be presented for Hispanics separately.

--The CPS will adopt the Census industry and occupation classification systems derived from the 2002 North American Industry Classification System and the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification system. These new classification systems represent complete breaks in the time series for occupation and industry data. As a result, seasonally adjusted oc- cupation and industry estimates from the household survey will not be presented until sufficient time series become available for seasonal ad- justment.

--The CPS program will begin using the X-12 ARIMA software for seasonal adjustment of time series data. Because of the other revisions being introduced with the January data, the annual revision of 5 years of seasonally adjusted data that typically occurs with the release of data for December will be delayed until the release of data for January.

Questions about upcoming changes to the CPS data series can be directed to the Division of Labor Force Statistics at 202-691-6378.

National Nonfarm Payroll Data Series

NAICS conversion. The nonfarm payroll series, produced from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, will be converted from the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) basis to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) basis with the June 6, 2003, release of May 2003 estimates. The NAICS conversion involves major definitional changes to many of the currently published SIC-based series. After the conversion to NAICS, SIC-based series will no longer be produced or published. Historical time series will be reconstructed as part of the NAICS conversion process. All published series will have a NAICS-based history extending back to at least January 1990. For total nonfarm and other high-level aggregates, NAICS history will begin in January 1939, the current starting date for these series. For more detailed series, the starting date will vary depending on the scope of the definitional changes between SIC and NAICS. The NAICS-based reconstruction effort will cover all CES published data types: all employees, women workers, production workers, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, and derivative series (for example, indexes of aggregate weekly hours).

Completion of the CES sample redesign. June 6, 2003, also will mark the completion of the CES sample redesign phase-in. The redesign converts the CES from a quota-based sample to a probability-based sample. In June 2003, the services industries will be converted to the new sample design; all other private sector industries have already been converted. The final stage of sample redesign phase-in may result in level shifts for average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, production worker, and women worker series. New levels for these series are being recomputed from the NAICS- based probability sample.

Concurrent seasonal adjustment. Also beginning in June 2003, the CES program will convert to concurrent seasonal adjustment, which uses all available monthly estimates, including those for the current month, in developing seasonal factors. Currently, the CES program projects seasonal factors twice a year. With the introduction of concurrent seasonal adjust- ment, BLS will no longer publish seasonal factors for CES national estimates.

Change to federal government series. Beginning in June 2003, the CES series for federal government employment will be revised slightly in scope and definition due to a change in source data and estimation methods. The current national series is an end-of-month federal employee count produced by the Office of Personnel Management, and it excludes some workers, mostly employees who work in Department of Defense-owned establishments such as military base commissaries. The CES national series will include these workers. Also, federal government employment will be estimated from a sample of federal establishments, will be benchmarked annually to counts from unemployment insurance tax records, and will reflect employee counts as of the pay period including the 12th of the month, consistent with other CES industry series. The historical time series for federal government employment will be revised to reflect these changes.

Further information on upcoming changes to CES data series is available through the BLS public database on the Internet, via the CES homepage at http://www.bls.gov/ces/, or by calling 202-691-6555.