October 1998 Employment Situation

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain source. Statistical tables, standard technical appendices, administrative material and attendance rosters are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's historical context and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete document.

Payroll employment grew modestly, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.6 percent in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The number of payroll jobs was up by 116,000, following a rise of 157,000 in September (as revised). Growth in services and most other industries in October was partly offset by a large decline in manufacturing. The increase in average hourly earnings was small for the second month in a row.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons, 6.3 million in October, was unchanged over the month. The unemployment rate remained at 4.6 percent; it has been at or below 5.0 percent since April 1997. Among the major worker groups, the jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), teenagers (16.0 percent), whites (4.0 percent), blacks (8.6 percent), and Hispanics (7.2 percent) showed little or no change in October. (See tables A-1 and A-2.)

Among the major educational attainment categories, the unemployment rate for college graduates 25 years and older rose to 2.0 percent, about the same as earlier this year. Jobless rates for persons with less than a high school diploma (6.8 percent), high school graduates with no college (4.0 percent), and persons with some college experience but no bachelor's degree (3.0 percent) showed little or no change over the month. (See table A-3.)

The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 218,000 to 2.9 million in October. The number of unemployed who were new entrants--persons who were looking for their first jobs--increased by 102,000. (See tables A-6 and A-7.)

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Total employment was essentially unchanged over the month at 131.7 million, after seasonal adjustment. The employment-population ratio--the proportion of the population age 16 and older with jobs--was 63.9 percent, little changed from the previous month. (See table A-1.)

About 8.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) held more than one job in October. These multiple jobholders comprised 6.2 percent of total employment, the same proportion as a year earlier. (See table A-10.)

The civilian labor force also was about unchanged in October, at 138.0 million, seasonally adjusted. Over the year, the labor force has grown by 1.9 million, after adjusting for the changes in the composite estimation procedure introduced with the January 1998 data. In October, the labor force participation rate was 67.0 percent, about unchanged from the prior year. (See table A-1.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

About 1.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in October. These were people who wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

The number of discouraged workers--a subset of the marginally attached who were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them--was 333,000 in October, about the same as a year earlier. (See table A-10.)

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 116,000 in October to 126.5 million, seasonally adjusted. Employment in manufacturing fell sharply, while the number of jobs in construction and in several service-producing industries grew. Employment growth has slowed in recent months, with gains averaging about 148,000 a month since July, compared with 247,000 during the first 7 months of the year (after adjustment for the effects of the strikes in automobile-related manufacturing).

Manufacturing employment decreased by 52,000 in October; since March it has fallen by 198,000. Over-the-month losses were widespread throughout the industry. The largest declines were in apparel (-14,000) and in electronic equipment (-12,000). Each of these industries has lost nearly 50,000 jobs since March. Employment declines also occurred in October in primary metals, industrial machinery, instruments, and miscellaneous manufacturing. Motor vehicles added 7,000 jobs; auto inventories were still low, following the recent strikes and related plant shutdowns.

Construction employment increased by 19,000 in October, following a loss of similar magnitude in September. Gains occurred in general building and special trade contractors. Mining continued its long-term downward trend, shedding 5,000 jobs in October. Since September 1997, employment in the industry has declined by 29,000.

In the service-producing sector, the services industry added 95,000 jobs in October, more than in either of the prior 2 months, but still less than the average for the first 7 months of 1998 (117,000). Employment in business services rose by 58,000, following a decline in September. Within business services, employment in personnel supply was up by 21,000 over the month but remained below its June peak. Gains in computer services and in engineering and management services continued in October, with each industry adding 13,000 jobs. Since July, however, the pace of growth has slackened in both industries. Health services employment rose by 12,000 in October, as continued losses in home health care services partially offset increases in hospitals and offices and clinics of medical doctors. Over- the-month employment declines occurred in amusement and recreation services (-17,000) and hotels and other lodging places (-12,000); however, these industries had experienced strong hiring during much of the year.

Employment in finance rose by 18,000 in October, following no growth in the prior month. Employment in commercial banks increased by 3,000, the first gain since March. Mortgage brokerages had an especially large job gain (7,000), and security brokerages continued their growth trend, adding 4,000 jobs. Employment in real estate was little changed in October and has shown no net growth since July.

Transportation employment grew by 13,000 in October, with much of the increase occurring in trucking (8,000). Returning strikers accounted for most of the 8,000 increase in employment in the communications industry.

Employment in retail trade edged down in October, following a large increase in September. In general merchandise stores, employment declined by 28,000 in October, following a similar increase in the prior month. Apparel and accessory stores had an employment loss of 13,000 in October. Other retail industries showed employment gains, with the largest occurring in auto dealers and service stations (11,000). Employment in wholesale trade was little changed in October, following a substantial increase in September.

Government employment increased by 24,000 over the month, with most of the gain taking place in federal government. The large increase in federal government (18,000) resulted from the hiring of workers in preparation for the decennial census.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2 hour in October to 34.6 hours, seasonally adjusted, returning to its August level. The manufacturing workweek also increased by 0.2 hour to 41.8 hours, while factory overtime was unchanged at 4.5 hours. (See table B-2.)

The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.6 percent to 145.6 (1982=100), seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing index increased by 0.2 percent in October to 108.0, reflecting the increase in the factory workweek. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up 1 cent in October to $12.88, seasonally adjusted. Average weekly earnings increased by 0.7 percent in October to $445.65. Over the year, both average hourly and weekly earnings have risen by 3.6 percent. (See table B-3.)