November 2002 Consumer Price Index

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain source. Statistical tables, standard technical appendices, administrative material and attendance rosters are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's historical context and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete document.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The November level of 181.3 (1982-84=100) was 2.2 percent higher than its level in November 2001.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.1 percent in November, prior to seasonal adjustment. The November level of 177.4 was 2.1 percent higher than the index in November 2001.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in November, following an increase of 0.3 percent in October. The index for food rose 0.2 percent in November. The index for food at home, which declined 0.1 percent in October, increased 0.3 percent, reflecting upturns in the indexes for fruits and vegetables and for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs. Energy costs, which had increased in each of the four preceding months, declined 0.2 percent in November. Within energy, the index for petroleum-based energy declined 0.2 percent and the index for energy services decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in November, the same as in October.

See page 3 and table 7 for the release of the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), a new supplemental index of consumer price change.

During the first 11 months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.6 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which declined 13.0 percent in 2001, increased at a 12.5 percent SAAR in the first 11 months of 2002. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 28.2 percent annual rate while charges for energy services showed no change. The food index has increased at a 1.3 percent SAAR thus far this year, following a 2.8 percent rise for all of 2001. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.1 percent SAAR in the first 11 months, following a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001.

The food and beverages index increased 0.3 percent in November. The index for food at home, which declined 0.1 percent in October, also increased 0.3 percent in November, reflecting upturns in the indexes for fruits and vegetables and for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs. The index for fruits and vegetables increased 1.0 percent, following a 0.9 percent decline in October. In November, the indexes for fresh vegetables and fresh fruits rose 2.1 and 1.4 percent, respectively, while the index for processed fruits and vegetables decreased 1.7 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which declined 0.4 percent in October, increased 0.6 percent in November. Within the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, the indexes for pork, poultry, fish and seafood, and eggs each turned up in November. The index for beef, which rose 0.1 percent in October, increased 0.4 percent in November. Poultry prices advanced in November despite a large decline in prices for turkey. The indexes for dairy products, for other food at home, and for cereal and bakery products rose 0.4, 0.3, and 0.1 percent, respectively. The index for nonalcoholic beverages decreased 0.7 percent, reflecting a drop in prices for carbonated drinks and noncarbonated juices and drinks. The other two components of the food and beverages index, food away from home and alcoholic beverages, increased 0.1 and 0.2 percent, respectively.

The index for housing rose 0.2 percent in November. Shelter costs increased 0.3 percent in November, following a 0.2 percent rise in October. Within shelter, the index for rent rose 0.3 percent, owners' equivalent rent increased 0.1 percent, and the index for lodging away from home advanced 0.7 percent. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, the index for lodging away from home declined 3.2 percent.) The index for fuels and utilities was unchanged in November. The index for fuel oil decreased 0.2 percent in November, but prices for fuel oil have risen 10.9 percent in the first 11 months of 2002. In November, the indexes for electricity and for natural gas declined 0.3 and 0.1 percent, respectively. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, fuel oil prices rose 2.1 percent and charges for natural gas rose 4.5 percent, while charges for electricity fell 2.9 percent.) The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.1 percent in November.

The transportation index, which increased 0.6 percent in October, declined 0.1 percent in November. The index for gasoline registered its first decline since May--down 0.4 percent in November after increasing 3.8 percent in October. Gasoline prices have risen 29.8 percent thus far this year, but remain 15.2 percent below their peak level in May 2001. The index for new vehicles turned down in November after registering increases of 0.5 and 0.4 percent in September and October, respectively. During the last 12 months, new vehicle prices have declined 1.5 percent. (As of November, about 55 percent of the new vehicle sample was represented by 2003 models. The 2003 models will continue to be phased in, with appropriate adjustments for quality change, over the next several months as they replace old models at dealerships. For a report on quality changes for the 2003 vehicles represented in the Producer Price Index sample, see news release USDL-02-634, dated November 15, 2002.) The index for used cars and trucks declined 1.4 percent in November to a level 5.5 percent lower than in November 2001. Airline fares declined for the third consecutive month--down 0.8 percent in November--and are 3.2 percent lower than a year ago.

The index for apparel registered its first decline since July--down 0.4 percent in November. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices fell 1.0 percent, reflecting discounting of prices for women's wear.)

The medical care index rose 0.6 percent in November to a level 5.0 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities--prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs, and medical supplies--increased 0.4 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.6 percent in November. Charges for professional services rose 0.3 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 1.2 percent.

The index for recreation, which rose 0.3 percent in October, was unchanged in November. Continued declines in the indexes for pets and pet products, for photography, and for toys, coupled with a smaller increase in the index for admissions to movies, theaters, concerts, and sporting events, were responsible for the deceleration in this major group.

In November, the index for education and communication was unchanged for the second consecutive month. The education index rose 0.4 percent, reflecting an increase in the index for college textbooks. The index for communication costs declined 0.4 percent, reflecting decreases in the indexes for telephone services and for personal computers and peripheral equipment--down 0.1 and 3.4 percent, respectively.

The index for other goods and services, which declined 0.5 percent in October, increased 0.1 percent in November. Prices for cigarettes were unchanged in November, following a 3.3 percent decline in October.

CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers increased 0.1 percent in November.

Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)

The C-CPI-U declined 0.1 percent in November on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The November level of 106.1 (December 1999=100) was 1.9 percent higher than the index in November 2001. Table 7 contains the most recent indexes for all items and the component series that are published. Data will be published monthly in the CPI Detailed Report and are available on the CPI home page: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/. Please note that the indexes for the post-2000 period are subject to revision.

Consumer Price Index data for December are scheduled for release on Thursday, January 16, 2003, at 8:30 A.M. (EST). Releases for the remainder of 2003:

Feb. 21 May 16 Aug. 15 Nov. 18 Mar. 21 June 17 Sep. 16 Dec. 16 Apr. 16 July 16 Oct. 16 Jan. 15, 2004

NOTE ON A NEW, SUPPLEMENTAL INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICE CHANGE

The Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing a consumer price index (CPI) called the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, effective with release of July data on August 16, 2002. Designated the C-CPI-U, the index supplements the existing indexes already produced by the BLS: the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

The C-CPI-U employs a Tornqvist formula and utilizes expenditure data in adjacent time periods in order to reflect the effect of any substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. The new measure, said to be a "superlative" index, is designed to be a closer approximation to a "cost-of-living" index than the CPI-U and CPI-W. The use of expenditure data for both a base period and the current period in order to average price change across item categories distinguishes the C-CPI-U from the other CPI measures, which use only a single expenditure base period to compute the price change over time. In 1999, the BLS introduced a geometric mean estimator for averaging prices within most of the index's item categories in order to approximate the effect of consumers' responses to changes in relative prices within these item categories. The geometric mean estimator is used in the C-CPI-U in the same item categories in which it is now used in the CPI-U and CPI-W. (See Monthly Labor Review, October 1998, pp. 3-7.)

Expenditure data required for the calculation of the C-CPI-U are available only with a time lag. Thus, the C-CPI-U is being issued first in preliminary form using the latest available expenditure data at this time and will be subject to two subsequent revisions. Accordingly, with release of the July data, "final" values of the C-CPI-U have been issued for the 12 months of 2000, "interim" values have been issued for the 12 months of 2001, and "initial" values have been issued for January-July 2of 2002. In February 2003, with release of the January 2003 index, revised interim indexes for the 12 months of 2002 will be published, and the index values for 2001 will be revised and will become final. Then, in February 2004, when the monthly expenditure data from calendar year 2002 become available, C-CPI-U indexes for the 12 months of 2002 will be issued in final form and values for the 12 months of 2003 will be revised and issued as interim. The C-CPI-U index revisions are expected to be small, but in principle each monthly index could be revised from its previously published level.

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