November 1996 Consumer Price Index

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain source. Statistical tables, standard technical appendices, administrative material and attendance rosters are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's historical context and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete document.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment in November to a level of 158.6 (1982-84=100), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. For the 12-month period ended in November, the CPI-U increased 3.3 percent.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.3 percent in November, prior to seasonal adjustment. The November 1996 CPI-W level of 155.9 was 3.3 percent higher than the index in November 1995.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in November, the same as in each of the two preceding months. The food index increased 0.3 percent in November after advancing 0.6 percent in October. Substantially smaller increases in the indexes for dairy products and for fruits and vegetables were responsible for the moderation. The energy index increased for the second consecutive month, advancing 1.2 percent in November. The index for petroleum-based energy increased 1.7 percent, and the index for energy services rose 0.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent, the same as in October.

During the first 11 months of 1996, the CPI-U rose at a 3.3 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 2.5 percent for all of 1995. Increases in the food and energy components, which acted as moderating influences throughout most of the past five years, have been responsible for the acceleration thus far in 1996. Energy costs, which declined last year, have increased at a 7.5 percent rate, with petroleum-based energy advancing at an 11.6 percent SAAR. The food index has risen at a 4.6 percent annual rate in the first 11 months after increasing 2.1 percent in all of 1995. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.7 percent rate in the first 11 months of 1996. This compares with a 3.0 percent increase for all of 1995.

The food and beverage index rose 0.3 percent in November. The index for grocery store food prices, which increased 3.4 percent over the preceding five months, rose 0.3 percent in November. Substantially smaller increases in the indexes for dairy products and for fruits and vegetables--up 0.1 and 0.2 percent, following increases of 1.7 and 1.5 percent, respectively, in October--were responsible for the moderation in November. Prior to November, the index for dairy products had risen 8.6 percent in the preceding five-month period. Among the other major grocery store food groups, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 0.3 percent in November. The index for pork, which had risen 9.6 percent in the five-month period ended in September, slowed substantially in October and November. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, pork prices declined 0.2 percent in October and were unchanged in November.) The indexes for beef and for poultry increased 0.7 and 0.1 percent, respectively. The index for cereal and bakery products rose 0.6 percent, reflecting a 1.9 percent increase in the price of white bread. The index for other food at home increased 0.1 percent, the same as in October. The other two components of the food and beverage index--restaurant meals and alcoholic beverages--increased 0.3 and declined 0.1 percent, respectively, in November.

The housing component rose 0.2 percent in November. Shelter costs increased 0.2 percent in November, following a rise of 0.3 percent in October. Within shelter, renters' costs rose 0.2 percent; homeowners' costs, 0.3 percent; and maintenance and repair costs, 0.6 percent. The index for fuel and other utilities rose 0.5 percent. Household fuels increased 0.9 percent, reflecting increases of 3.4 percent in the index for natural gas and 1.9 percent in the index for fuel oil. The index for electricity declined 0.5 percent. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, charges for electricity fell 2.7 percent.) The index for other utilities and public services rose 0.2 percent, the same as in each of the preceding two months. The index for household furnishings and operation declined 0.1 percent in November, the same as in October.

The transportation index increased 0.2 percent in November, following a rise of 0.1 percent in October. A sharp increase in the index for motor fuel was partially offset by another drop in automobile purchase costs and a downturn in the index for airline fares. The index for gasoline, which in October registered its first increase since May, advanced 1.8 percent in November. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices registered their first increase since May--up 1.8 percent, following a 0.5 percent decline in October.) As of November, the gasoline index was 9.8 percent below its peak level of December 1990. Automobile purchase costs declined for the second consecutive month in November. The index for new vehicles, which declined 0.2 percent in October, fell 0.1 percent in November. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, new vehicle prices rose 0.7 percent.) As of November, nearly 50 percent of the new vehicle sample was represented by 1997 models. The 1997 models will continue to be phased in over the next several months as they replace old models at dealerships. The index for automobile finance charges declined 1.2 percent in November, following a 0.3 percent drop in October. The index for used cars also declined for the second consecutive month--down 0.4 percent in November. The index for airline fares, which increased 2.9 and 1.9 percent in September and October, respectively, declined 0.7 percent in November. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, airline fares were unchanged in November.)

The index for apparel and upkeep rose 0.5 percent in November, the same as in each of the two preceding months. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, clothing prices fell 0.1 percent in November.)

Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in November to a level 3.1 percent above a year ago. The index for medical care commodities-- prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs, and medical supplies-- declined 0.2 percent in November. The index for medical care services rose 0.4 percent. Charges for professional services and hospital and related services increased 0.5 and 0.3 percent, respectively.

Entertainment costs rose 0.1 percent in November, following an increase of 0.3 percent in October. In November the index for entertainment commodities was unchanged, while the index for entertainment services rose 0.3 percent.

The index for other goods and services increased 0.4 percent in November, the same as in October. The index for tobacco products increased 0.4 percent in November and has risen 1.8 percent in the past three months.

CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers rose 0.3 percent in November.

Consumer Price Index data for December are scheduled for release on Tuesday, January 14, 1997, at 8:30 A.M. (EST). Releases for the remainder of 1997:

New Seasonal Adjustment Method to be Implemented

Effective with the release of revised seasonally adjusted data for 1992- 1996 on February 14, 1997, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will begin using X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment software (developed by the Bureau of the Census) for performing Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment (IASA) for selected CPI series. The X-12 ARIMA methodology incorporates a number of technical enhancements that improve the estimation of seasonal factors. This change will affect 20 CPI series. In addition, all remaining Consumer Price Index series requiring seasonal adjustment will be processed using X-12-ARIMA software beginning in February 1998. Seasonal adjustment methods in the Producer Price Index will change in similar fashion.

Each year with the release of the January CPI, seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated to reflect price movements from the just- completed calendar year. This routine annual recalculation may result in revisions to seasonally adjusted indexes for the previous 5 years. BLS will make available recalculated seasonally adjusted indexes, as well as recalculated seasonal adjustment factors, for the period January 1992 through December 1996, at 8:30 a.m. on Friday, February 14, 1997. Seasonal factors for 1997 for directly adjusted series will also be available. This date is two working days before the scheduled release of the January 1997 CPI on Wednesday, February 19, 1997.

The revised indexes and seasonal factors will be available on the internet at gopher://stats.bls.gov. Choose the "special requests" directory, and then the "cpi" directory. The revised seasonal data will be in the file revseas.cpi.