Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, September 2024

Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

THE PRIMARY SOURCE

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income

Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $57.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.8 billion (0.5 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in September and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.7 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 3 and 4).

The increase in current-dollar personal income in September primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts that were partly offset by decreases in personal interest income and proprietors’ income (table 2).

The $105.8 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in September reflected an increase of $72.1 billion in spending for services and an increase of $33.7 billion in spending for goods (table 2). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were health care and housing and utilities (led by housing). Within goods, the largest contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs), food and beverages, and motor vehicles and parts (led by new light trucks). These increases were partly offset by a decrease in gasoline and other energy goods. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.5U.

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $106.3 billion in September (table 2). Personal saving was $1.00 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent (table 1).

Prices

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for September increased 0.2 percent (table 5). Prices for goods decreased 0.1 percent and prices for services increased 0.3 percent. Food prices increased 0.4 percent and energy prices decreased 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for September increased 2.1 percent (table 7). Prices for goods decreased 1.2 percent and prices for services increased 3.7 percent. Food prices increased 1.2 percent and energy prices decreased 8.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.7 percent from one year ago.

Real PCE

The 0.4 percent increase in real PCE in September reflected an increase of 0.7 percent in spending on goods and an increase of 0.2 percent in spending on services (table 4). Within goods, the largest contributor to the increase was other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs). Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was food services and accommodations (led by purchased meals and beverages). Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.6U.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July and August. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2017) dollar DPI and PCE, are provided below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Oct 31, 2024.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierOct 1, 2024Publication referenceOct 31, 202430 days laterNov 30, 2024
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®6.08%Observed 6.72%Observed +64 bps vs. earlier reference6.81%Observed +9 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury3.74%Observed 4.28%Observed +54 bps vs. earlier reference4.18%Observed −10 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Jul 31, 2024 – Jan 31, 2025
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Oct 31, 2024Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.3.50%5.50%7.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 6.73% · Aug 1, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.47% · Aug 8, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.49% · Aug 15, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.46% · Aug 22, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.35% · Aug 29, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.35% · Sep 5, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.20% · Sep 12, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.09% · Sep 19, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.08% · Sep 26, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.12% · Oct 3, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.32% · Oct 10, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.44% · Oct 17, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.54% · Oct 24, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.72% · Oct 31, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.79% · Nov 7, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.78% · Nov 14, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.84% · Nov 21, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.81% · Nov 27, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.69% · Dec 5, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.60% · Dec 12, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.72% · Dec 19, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.85% · Dec 26, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.91% · Jan 2, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.93% · Jan 9, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 7.04% · Jan 16, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.96% · Jan 23, 202530-year fixed mortgage: 6.95% · Jan 30, 202510-year Treasury: 4.09% · Jul 31, 202410-year Treasury: 3.99% · Aug 1, 202410-year Treasury: 3.80% · Aug 2, 202410-year Treasury: 3.78% · Aug 5, 202410-year Treasury: 3.90% · Aug 6, 202410-year Treasury: 3.96% · Aug 7, 202410-year Treasury: 3.99% · Aug 8, 202410-year Treasury: 3.94% · Aug 9, 202410-year Treasury: 3.90% · Aug 12, 202410-year Treasury: 3.85% · Aug 13, 202410-year Treasury: 3.83% · Aug 14, 202410-year Treasury: 3.92% · Aug 15, 202410-year Treasury: 3.89% · Aug 16, 202410-year Treasury: 3.86% · Aug 19, 202410-year Treasury: 3.82% · Aug 20, 202410-year Treasury: 3.79% · Aug 21, 202410-year Treasury: 3.86% · Aug 22, 202410-year Treasury: 3.81% · Aug 23, 202410-year Treasury: 3.82% · Aug 26, 202410-year Treasury: 3.83% · Aug 27, 202410-year Treasury: 3.84% · Aug 28, 202410-year Treasury: 3.87% · Aug 29, 202410-year Treasury: 3.91% · Aug 30, 202410-year Treasury: 3.84% · Sep 3, 202410-year Treasury: 3.77% · Sep 4, 202410-year Treasury: 3.73% · Sep 5, 202410-year Treasury: 3.72% · Sep 6, 202410-year Treasury: 3.70% · Sep 9, 202410-year Treasury: 3.65% · Sep 10, 202410-year Treasury: 3.65% · Sep 11, 202410-year Treasury: 3.68% · Sep 12, 202410-year Treasury: 3.66% · Sep 13, 202410-year Treasury: 3.63% · Sep 16, 202410-year Treasury: 3.65% · Sep 17, 202410-year Treasury: 3.70% · Sep 18, 202410-year Treasury: 3.73% · Sep 19, 202410-year Treasury: 3.73% · Sep 20, 202410-year Treasury: 3.75% · Sep 23, 202410-year Treasury: 3.74% · Sep 24, 202410-year Treasury: 3.79% · Sep 25, 202410-year Treasury: 3.79% · Sep 26, 202410-year Treasury: 3.75% · Sep 27, 202410-year Treasury: 3.81% · Sep 30, 202410-year Treasury: 3.74% · Oct 1, 202410-year Treasury: 3.79% · Oct 2, 202410-year Treasury: 3.85% · Oct 3, 202410-year Treasury: 3.98% · Oct 4, 202410-year Treasury: 4.03% · Oct 7, 202410-year Treasury: 4.04% · Oct 8, 202410-year Treasury: 4.06% · Oct 9, 202410-year Treasury: 4.09% · Oct 10, 202410-year Treasury: 4.08% · Oct 11, 202410-year Treasury: 4.03% · Oct 15, 202410-year Treasury: 4.02% · Oct 16, 202410-year Treasury: 4.09% · Oct 17, 202410-year Treasury: 4.08% · Oct 18, 202410-year Treasury: 4.19% · Oct 21, 202410-year Treasury: 4.20% · Oct 22, 202410-year Treasury: 4.24% · Oct 23, 202410-year Treasury: 4.21% · Oct 24, 202410-year Treasury: 4.25% · Oct 25, 202410-year Treasury: 4.28% · Oct 28, 202410-year Treasury: 4.28% · Oct 29, 202410-year Treasury: 4.29% · Oct 30, 202410-year Treasury: 4.28% · Oct 31, 202410-year Treasury: 4.37% · Nov 1, 202410-year Treasury: 4.31% · Nov 4, 202410-year Treasury: 4.26% · Nov 5, 202410-year Treasury: 4.42% · Nov 6, 202410-year Treasury: 4.31% · Nov 7, 202410-year Treasury: 4.30% · Nov 8, 202410-year Treasury: 4.43% · Nov 12, 202410-year Treasury: 4.44% · Nov 13, 202410-year Treasury: 4.43% · Nov 14, 202410-year Treasury: 4.43% · Nov 15, 202410-year Treasury: 4.42% · Nov 18, 202410-year Treasury: 4.39% · Nov 19, 202410-year Treasury: 4.41% · Nov 20, 202410-year Treasury: 4.43% · Nov 21, 202410-year Treasury: 4.41% · Nov 22, 202410-year Treasury: 4.27% · Nov 25, 202410-year Treasury: 4.30% · Nov 26, 202410-year Treasury: 4.25% · Nov 27, 202410-year Treasury: 4.18% · Nov 29, 202410-year Treasury: 4.19% · Dec 2, 202410-year Treasury: 4.23% · Dec 3, 202410-year Treasury: 4.19% · Dec 4, 202410-year Treasury: 4.17% · Dec 5, 202410-year Treasury: 4.15% · Dec 6, 202410-year Treasury: 4.20% · Dec 9, 202410-year Treasury: 4.22% · Dec 10, 202410-year Treasury: 4.26% · Dec 11, 202410-year Treasury: 4.32% · Dec 12, 202410-year Treasury: 4.40% · Dec 13, 202410-year Treasury: 4.39% · Dec 16, 202410-year Treasury: 4.40% · Dec 17, 202410-year Treasury: 4.50% · Dec 18, 202410-year Treasury: 4.57% · Dec 19, 202410-year Treasury: 4.52% · Dec 20, 202410-year Treasury: 4.59% · Dec 23, 202410-year Treasury: 4.59% · Dec 24, 202410-year Treasury: 4.58% · Dec 26, 202410-year Treasury: 4.62% · Dec 27, 202410-year Treasury: 4.55% · Dec 30, 202410-year Treasury: 4.58% · Dec 31, 202410-year Treasury: 4.57% · Jan 2, 202510-year Treasury: 4.60% · Jan 3, 202510-year Treasury: 4.62% · Jan 6, 202510-year Treasury: 4.67% · Jan 7, 202510-year Treasury: 4.67% · Jan 8, 202510-year Treasury: 4.68% · Jan 9, 202510-year Treasury: 4.77% · Jan 10, 202510-year Treasury: 4.79% · Jan 13, 202510-year Treasury: 4.78% · Jan 14, 202510-year Treasury: 4.66% · Jan 15, 202510-year Treasury: 4.61% · Jan 16, 202510-year Treasury: 4.61% · Jan 17, 202510-year Treasury: 4.57% · Jan 21, 202510-year Treasury: 4.60% · Jan 22, 202510-year Treasury: 4.65% · Jan 23, 202510-year Treasury: 4.63% · Jan 24, 202510-year Treasury: 4.53% · Jan 27, 202510-year Treasury: 4.55% · Jan 28, 202510-year Treasury: 4.55% · Jan 29, 202510-year Treasury: 4.52% · Jan 30, 202510-year Treasury: 4.58% · Jan 31, 2025Jul 31, 2024Oct 31, 2024Jan 31, 2025
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury126 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,939.82/month

6.72% · Oct 31, 2024

At the later reference$1,957.77/month

6.81% · Nov 27, 2024

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $17.96 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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