Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, February 2024

Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

THE PRIMARY SOURCE

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $50.3 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $145.5 billion (0.8 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 5). Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in February and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.1 percent and services increased 0.6 percent (tables 3 and 4).

The increase in current-dollar personal income in February primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts that were partly offset by a decrease in personal income receipts on assets (led by personal dividend income) (table 2).

The $145.5 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in February reflected an increase of $111.8 billion in spending for services and a $33.7 billion increase in spending for goods (table 2). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were financial services and insurance (led by financial service charges, fees, and commissions), transportation services (led by air transportation), and housing and utilities (led by housing). Within goods, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for motor vehicles and parts (led by new light trucks). Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.5U.

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $149.9 billion in February (table 2). Personal saving was $745.7 billion in February and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.6 percent (table 1).

Prices

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for February increased 0.3 percent (table 5). Prices for goods increased 0.5 percent and prices for services increased 0.3 percent. Food prices increased 0.1 percent and energy prices increased 2.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for February increased 2.5 percent (table 7). Prices for services increased 3.8 percent and prices for goods decreased 0.2 percent. Food prices increased 1.3 percent and energy prices decreased 2.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.

Real PCE

The 0.4 percent increase in real PCE in February reflected an increase of 0.6 percent in spending on services and an increase of 0.1 percent in spending on goods (table 4). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were other services (led by international travel), transportation services (led by air transportation), and financial services and insurance (led by financial service charges, fees, and commissions). Within goods, the largest contributor to the increase was motor vehicles and parts (led by new light trucks). Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.6U.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for October through January. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2017) dollar DPI and PCE, are provided below for December and January.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Mar 29, 2024.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierFeb 28, 2024Publication referenceMar 29, 202430 days laterApr 28, 2024
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®6.90%Observed 6.79%Observed −11 bps vs. earlier reference7.17%Observed +38 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury4.27%Observed 4.20%Observed −7 bps vs. earlier reference4.67%Observed +47 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Dec 29, 2023 – Jun 29, 2024
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Mar 29, 2024Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.3.50%5.50%7.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 6.62% · Jan 4, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.66% · Jan 11, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.60% · Jan 18, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.69% · Jan 25, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.63% · Feb 1, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.64% · Feb 8, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.77% · Feb 15, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.90% · Feb 22, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.94% · Feb 29, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.88% · Mar 7, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.74% · Mar 14, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.87% · Mar 21, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.79% · Mar 28, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.82% · Apr 4, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.88% · Apr 11, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 7.10% · Apr 18, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 7.17% · Apr 25, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 7.22% · May 2, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 7.09% · May 9, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 7.02% · May 16, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.94% · May 23, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 7.03% · May 30, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.99% · Jun 6, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.95% · Jun 13, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.87% · Jun 20, 202430-year fixed mortgage: 6.86% · Jun 27, 202410-year Treasury: 3.88% · Dec 29, 202310-year Treasury: 3.95% · Jan 2, 202410-year Treasury: 3.91% · Jan 3, 202410-year Treasury: 3.99% · Jan 4, 202410-year Treasury: 4.05% · Jan 5, 202410-year Treasury: 4.01% · Jan 8, 202410-year Treasury: 4.02% · Jan 9, 202410-year Treasury: 4.04% · Jan 10, 202410-year Treasury: 3.98% · Jan 11, 202410-year Treasury: 3.96% · Jan 12, 202410-year Treasury: 4.07% · Jan 16, 202410-year Treasury: 4.10% · Jan 17, 202410-year Treasury: 4.14% · Jan 18, 202410-year Treasury: 4.15% · Jan 19, 202410-year Treasury: 4.11% · Jan 22, 202410-year Treasury: 4.14% · Jan 23, 202410-year Treasury: 4.18% · Jan 24, 202410-year Treasury: 4.14% · Jan 25, 202410-year Treasury: 4.15% · Jan 26, 202410-year Treasury: 4.08% · Jan 29, 202410-year Treasury: 4.06% · Jan 30, 202410-year Treasury: 3.99% · Jan 31, 202410-year Treasury: 3.87% · Feb 1, 202410-year Treasury: 4.03% · Feb 2, 202410-year Treasury: 4.17% · Feb 5, 202410-year Treasury: 4.09% · Feb 6, 202410-year Treasury: 4.09% · Feb 7, 202410-year Treasury: 4.15% · Feb 8, 202410-year Treasury: 4.17% · Feb 9, 202410-year Treasury: 4.17% · Feb 12, 202410-year Treasury: 4.31% · Feb 13, 202410-year Treasury: 4.27% · Feb 14, 202410-year Treasury: 4.24% · Feb 15, 202410-year Treasury: 4.30% · Feb 16, 202410-year Treasury: 4.27% · Feb 20, 202410-year Treasury: 4.32% · Feb 21, 202410-year Treasury: 4.33% · Feb 22, 202410-year Treasury: 4.26% · Feb 23, 202410-year Treasury: 4.28% · Feb 26, 202410-year Treasury: 4.31% · Feb 27, 202410-year Treasury: 4.27% · Feb 28, 202410-year Treasury: 4.25% · Feb 29, 202410-year Treasury: 4.19% · Mar 1, 202410-year Treasury: 4.22% · Mar 4, 202410-year Treasury: 4.13% · Mar 5, 202410-year Treasury: 4.11% · Mar 6, 202410-year Treasury: 4.09% · Mar 7, 202410-year Treasury: 4.09% · Mar 8, 202410-year Treasury: 4.10% · Mar 11, 202410-year Treasury: 4.16% · Mar 12, 202410-year Treasury: 4.19% · Mar 13, 202410-year Treasury: 4.29% · Mar 14, 202410-year Treasury: 4.31% · Mar 15, 202410-year Treasury: 4.34% · Mar 18, 202410-year Treasury: 4.30% · Mar 19, 202410-year Treasury: 4.27% · Mar 20, 202410-year Treasury: 4.27% · Mar 21, 202410-year Treasury: 4.22% · Mar 22, 202410-year Treasury: 4.25% · Mar 25, 202410-year Treasury: 4.24% · Mar 26, 202410-year Treasury: 4.20% · Mar 27, 202410-year Treasury: 4.20% · Mar 28, 202410-year Treasury: 4.33% · Apr 1, 202410-year Treasury: 4.36% · Apr 2, 202410-year Treasury: 4.36% · Apr 3, 202410-year Treasury: 4.31% · Apr 4, 202410-year Treasury: 4.39% · Apr 5, 202410-year Treasury: 4.42% · Apr 8, 202410-year Treasury: 4.36% · Apr 9, 202410-year Treasury: 4.55% · Apr 10, 202410-year Treasury: 4.56% · Apr 11, 202410-year Treasury: 4.50% · Apr 12, 202410-year Treasury: 4.63% · Apr 15, 202410-year Treasury: 4.67% · Apr 16, 202410-year Treasury: 4.59% · Apr 17, 202410-year Treasury: 4.64% · Apr 18, 202410-year Treasury: 4.62% · Apr 19, 202410-year Treasury: 4.62% · Apr 22, 202410-year Treasury: 4.61% · Apr 23, 202410-year Treasury: 4.65% · Apr 24, 202410-year Treasury: 4.70% · Apr 25, 202410-year Treasury: 4.67% · Apr 26, 202410-year Treasury: 4.63% · Apr 29, 202410-year Treasury: 4.69% · Apr 30, 202410-year Treasury: 4.63% · May 1, 202410-year Treasury: 4.58% · May 2, 202410-year Treasury: 4.50% · May 3, 202410-year Treasury: 4.49% · May 6, 202410-year Treasury: 4.47% · May 7, 202410-year Treasury: 4.48% · May 8, 202410-year Treasury: 4.45% · May 9, 202410-year Treasury: 4.50% · May 10, 202410-year Treasury: 4.48% · May 13, 202410-year Treasury: 4.45% · May 14, 202410-year Treasury: 4.36% · May 15, 202410-year Treasury: 4.38% · May 16, 202410-year Treasury: 4.42% · May 17, 202410-year Treasury: 4.44% · May 20, 202410-year Treasury: 4.41% · May 21, 202410-year Treasury: 4.43% · May 22, 202410-year Treasury: 4.47% · May 23, 202410-year Treasury: 4.46% · May 24, 202410-year Treasury: 4.54% · May 28, 202410-year Treasury: 4.61% · May 29, 202410-year Treasury: 4.55% · May 30, 202410-year Treasury: 4.51% · May 31, 202410-year Treasury: 4.41% · Jun 3, 202410-year Treasury: 4.33% · Jun 4, 202410-year Treasury: 4.29% · Jun 5, 202410-year Treasury: 4.28% · Jun 6, 202410-year Treasury: 4.43% · Jun 7, 202410-year Treasury: 4.47% · Jun 10, 202410-year Treasury: 4.39% · Jun 11, 202410-year Treasury: 4.31% · Jun 12, 202410-year Treasury: 4.24% · Jun 13, 202410-year Treasury: 4.20% · Jun 14, 202410-year Treasury: 4.28% · Jun 17, 202410-year Treasury: 4.22% · Jun 18, 202410-year Treasury: 4.25% · Jun 20, 202410-year Treasury: 4.25% · Jun 21, 202410-year Treasury: 4.25% · Jun 24, 202410-year Treasury: 4.23% · Jun 25, 202410-year Treasury: 4.32% · Jun 26, 202410-year Treasury: 4.29% · Jun 27, 202410-year Treasury: 4.36% · Jun 28, 2024Dec 29, 2023Mar 29, 2024Jun 29, 2024
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations10-year Treasury125 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,953.78/month

6.79% · Mar 28, 2024

At the later reference$2,030.28/month

7.17% · Apr 25, 2024

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $76.50 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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