Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, August 2023

Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 2 and table 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

THE PRIMARY SOURCE

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 2 and table 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent (table 5). Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in August and real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.2 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 3 and 4).

The increase in current-dollar personal income in August primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on assets, rental income of persons, and proprietors’ income that were partly offset by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts (table 2).

The $83.6 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in August reflected a $47.0 billion increase in spending for services and a $36.7 billion increase in spending for goods (table 2). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were housing and utilities (led by housing), transportation services, and health care (both hospitals and outpatient services). Within goods, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for gasoline and other energy goods (led by motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids). Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.5U.

Personal outlays, the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments, increased $86.0 billion in August (table 2). Personal saving was $794.1 billion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.9 percent (table 1).

Prices

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.4 percent (table 5). Prices for goods increased 0.8 percent and prices for services increased 0.2 percent. Food prices increased 0.2 percent and energy prices increased 6.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 3.5 percent (table 7). Prices for goods increased 0.7 percent and prices for services increased 4.9 percent. Food prices increased 3.1 percent and energy prices decreased 3.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.9 percent from one year ago.

Real PCE

The 0.1 percent increase in real PCE in August reflected an increase of 0.2 percent in spending on services and a decrease of 0.2 percent in spending on goods (table 4). Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were transportation services (led by air transportation) and health care (led by hospitals and nursing homes). Within goods, the largest contributor to the decrease was motor vehicles and parts (led by new motor vehicles). Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.6U.

Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts

Today’s release presents results from the comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts. The revisions for income estimates begin with January 1979 and revisions for consumer spending begin with January 2013. Monthly estimates for January through March of 2023 include revisions resulting from the incorporation of first-quarter wage and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Estimates for April through July of 2023 have been updated to reflect revised monthly data from the BLS Current Employment Statistics program.

Revised and previously published changes in monthly personal income, DPI, PCE, personal saving as a percentage of DPI, real DPI, and real PCE are shown in table 8 of this release. Updated quarterly and annual estimates of personal income and outlays were presented as part of the third release of GDP for the second quarter of 2023 on September 28, 2023.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Sep 29, 2023.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierAug 30, 2023Publication referenceSep 29, 202330 days laterOct 29, 2023
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®7.23%Observed 7.31%Observed +8 bps vs. earlier reference7.79%Observed +48 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury4.12%Observed 4.59%Observed +47 bps vs. earlier reference4.84%Observed +25 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Jun 29, 2023 – Dec 29, 2023
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Sep 29, 2023Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.3.50%5.75%8.00%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 6.71% · Jun 29, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.81% · Jul 6, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.96% · Jul 13, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.78% · Jul 20, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.81% · Jul 27, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.90% · Aug 3, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.96% · Aug 10, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.09% · Aug 17, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.23% · Aug 24, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.18% · Aug 31, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.12% · Sep 7, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.18% · Sep 14, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.19% · Sep 21, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.31% · Sep 28, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.49% · Oct 5, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.57% · Oct 12, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.63% · Oct 19, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.79% · Oct 26, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.76% · Nov 2, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.50% · Nov 9, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.44% · Nov 16, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.29% · Nov 22, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.22% · Nov 30, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 7.03% · Dec 7, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.95% · Dec 14, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.67% · Dec 21, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.61% · Dec 28, 202310-year Treasury: 3.85% · Jun 29, 202310-year Treasury: 3.81% · Jun 30, 202310-year Treasury: 3.86% · Jul 3, 202310-year Treasury: 3.95% · Jul 5, 202310-year Treasury: 4.05% · Jul 6, 202310-year Treasury: 4.06% · Jul 7, 202310-year Treasury: 4.01% · Jul 10, 202310-year Treasury: 3.99% · Jul 11, 202310-year Treasury: 3.86% · Jul 12, 202310-year Treasury: 3.76% · Jul 13, 202310-year Treasury: 3.83% · Jul 14, 202310-year Treasury: 3.81% · Jul 17, 202310-year Treasury: 3.80% · Jul 18, 202310-year Treasury: 3.75% · Jul 19, 202310-year Treasury: 3.85% · Jul 20, 202310-year Treasury: 3.84% · Jul 21, 202310-year Treasury: 3.86% · Jul 24, 202310-year Treasury: 3.91% · Jul 25, 202310-year Treasury: 3.86% · Jul 26, 202310-year Treasury: 4.01% · Jul 27, 202310-year Treasury: 3.96% · Jul 28, 202310-year Treasury: 3.97% · Jul 31, 202310-year Treasury: 4.05% · Aug 1, 202310-year Treasury: 4.08% · Aug 2, 202310-year Treasury: 4.20% · Aug 3, 202310-year Treasury: 4.05% · Aug 4, 202310-year Treasury: 4.09% · Aug 7, 202310-year Treasury: 4.02% · Aug 8, 202310-year Treasury: 4.00% · Aug 9, 202310-year Treasury: 4.09% · Aug 10, 202310-year Treasury: 4.16% · Aug 11, 202310-year Treasury: 4.19% · Aug 14, 202310-year Treasury: 4.21% · Aug 15, 202310-year Treasury: 4.28% · Aug 16, 202310-year Treasury: 4.30% · Aug 17, 202310-year Treasury: 4.26% · Aug 18, 202310-year Treasury: 4.34% · Aug 21, 202310-year Treasury: 4.34% · Aug 22, 202310-year Treasury: 4.19% · Aug 23, 202310-year Treasury: 4.23% · Aug 24, 202310-year Treasury: 4.25% · Aug 25, 202310-year Treasury: 4.20% · Aug 28, 202310-year Treasury: 4.12% · Aug 29, 202310-year Treasury: 4.12% · Aug 30, 202310-year Treasury: 4.09% · Aug 31, 202310-year Treasury: 4.18% · Sep 1, 202310-year Treasury: 4.27% · Sep 5, 202310-year Treasury: 4.30% · Sep 6, 202310-year Treasury: 4.27% · Sep 7, 202310-year Treasury: 4.26% · Sep 8, 202310-year Treasury: 4.29% · Sep 11, 202310-year Treasury: 4.27% · Sep 12, 202310-year Treasury: 4.25% · Sep 13, 202310-year Treasury: 4.29% · Sep 14, 202310-year Treasury: 4.33% · Sep 15, 202310-year Treasury: 4.32% · Sep 18, 202310-year Treasury: 4.37% · Sep 19, 202310-year Treasury: 4.35% · Sep 20, 202310-year Treasury: 4.49% · Sep 21, 202310-year Treasury: 4.44% · Sep 22, 202310-year Treasury: 4.55% · Sep 25, 202310-year Treasury: 4.56% · Sep 26, 202310-year Treasury: 4.61% · Sep 27, 202310-year Treasury: 4.59% · Sep 28, 202310-year Treasury: 4.59% · Sep 29, 202310-year Treasury: 4.69% · Oct 2, 202310-year Treasury: 4.81% · Oct 3, 202310-year Treasury: 4.73% · Oct 4, 202310-year Treasury: 4.72% · Oct 5, 202310-year Treasury: 4.78% · Oct 6, 202310-year Treasury: 4.66% · Oct 10, 202310-year Treasury: 4.58% · Oct 11, 202310-year Treasury: 4.70% · Oct 12, 202310-year Treasury: 4.63% · Oct 13, 202310-year Treasury: 4.71% · Oct 16, 202310-year Treasury: 4.83% · Oct 17, 202310-year Treasury: 4.91% · Oct 18, 202310-year Treasury: 4.98% · Oct 19, 202310-year Treasury: 4.93% · Oct 20, 202310-year Treasury: 4.86% · Oct 23, 202310-year Treasury: 4.83% · Oct 24, 202310-year Treasury: 4.95% · Oct 25, 202310-year Treasury: 4.86% · Oct 26, 202310-year Treasury: 4.84% · Oct 27, 202310-year Treasury: 4.88% · Oct 30, 202310-year Treasury: 4.88% · Oct 31, 202310-year Treasury: 4.77% · Nov 1, 202310-year Treasury: 4.67% · Nov 2, 202310-year Treasury: 4.57% · Nov 3, 202310-year Treasury: 4.67% · Nov 6, 202310-year Treasury: 4.58% · Nov 7, 202310-year Treasury: 4.49% · Nov 8, 202310-year Treasury: 4.62% · Nov 9, 202310-year Treasury: 4.61% · Nov 10, 202310-year Treasury: 4.63% · Nov 13, 202310-year Treasury: 4.44% · Nov 14, 202310-year Treasury: 4.53% · Nov 15, 202310-year Treasury: 4.45% · Nov 16, 202310-year Treasury: 4.44% · Nov 17, 202310-year Treasury: 4.42% · Nov 20, 202310-year Treasury: 4.41% · Nov 21, 202310-year Treasury: 4.42% · Nov 22, 202310-year Treasury: 4.47% · Nov 24, 202310-year Treasury: 4.39% · Nov 27, 202310-year Treasury: 4.34% · Nov 28, 202310-year Treasury: 4.27% · Nov 29, 202310-year Treasury: 4.37% · Nov 30, 202310-year Treasury: 4.22% · Dec 1, 202310-year Treasury: 4.28% · Dec 4, 202310-year Treasury: 4.18% · Dec 5, 202310-year Treasury: 4.12% · Dec 6, 202310-year Treasury: 4.14% · Dec 7, 202310-year Treasury: 4.23% · Dec 8, 202310-year Treasury: 4.23% · Dec 11, 202310-year Treasury: 4.20% · Dec 12, 202310-year Treasury: 4.04% · Dec 13, 202310-year Treasury: 3.92% · Dec 14, 202310-year Treasury: 3.91% · Dec 15, 202310-year Treasury: 3.95% · Dec 18, 202310-year Treasury: 3.93% · Dec 19, 202310-year Treasury: 3.86% · Dec 20, 202310-year Treasury: 3.89% · Dec 21, 202310-year Treasury: 3.90% · Dec 22, 202310-year Treasury: 3.89% · Dec 26, 202310-year Treasury: 3.79% · Dec 27, 202310-year Treasury: 3.84% · Dec 28, 202310-year Treasury: 3.88% · Dec 29, 2023Jun 29, 2023Sep 29, 2023Dec 29, 2023
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury127 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$2,058.75/month

7.31% · Sep 28, 2023

At the later reference$2,157.54/month

7.79% · Oct 26, 2023

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $98.78 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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