Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, September 2022

Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

THE PRIMARY SOURCE

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent (table 9). Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent; goods increased 0.4 percent and services increased 0.3 percent (tables 5 and 7).

The increase in current-dollar personal income in September primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal income receipts on assets (table 3). The increase in compensation was led by private wages and salaries. Within private wages and salaries, both services-producing industries and goods-producing industries increased. The increase in personal income receipts on assets reflected increases in both interest and dividend income.

The $113.0 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in September reflected an increase of $94.7 billion in spending for services and an increase of $18.3 in spending for goods (table 3). Within services, the leading contributors were housing and utilities (mainly housing), "other" services (mainly international travel), and transportation services (mainly air transportation). Within goods, increases in “other” nondurable goods (mainly prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts (mainly new motor vehicles) were partly offset by a decrease in gasoline and other energy goods. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.

Personal outlays increased $125.5 billion in September (table 3). Personal saving was $581.6 billion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.1 percent (table 1).

Prices

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for September increased 0.3 percent (table 9). Prices for goods decreased 0.1 percent, reflecting a decrease in prices for nondurable goods (led by gasoline and other energy goods). Prices for services increased 0.6 percent (led by housing and transportation services). Food prices increased 0.6 percent and energy prices decreased 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for September increased 6.2 percent (table 11). Prices for goods increased 8.1 percent and prices for services increased 5.3 percent. Food prices increased 11.9 percent and energy prices increased 20.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 5.1 percent from one year ago.

Real PCE

The 0.3 percent increase in real PCE in September reflected an increase of 0.4 percent in spending on goods and 0.3 percent in spending on services (table 7). Within goods, the increase primarily reflected an increase in spending on gasoline and other energy goods. Within services, "other" services (mainly international travel), food services and accommodations, and health care were the leading contributors. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July and August. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are provided below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Oct 28, 2022.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierSep 28, 2022Publication referenceOct 28, 202230 days laterNov 27, 2022
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®6.29%Observed 7.08%Observed +79 bps vs. earlier reference6.58%Observed −50 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury3.72%Observed 4.02%Observed +30 bps vs. earlier reference3.68%Observed −34 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Jul 28, 2022 – Jan 28, 2023
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Oct 28, 2022Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.2.50%5.00%7.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 5.30% · Jul 28, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 4.99% · Aug 4, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.22% · Aug 11, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.13% · Aug 18, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.55% · Aug 25, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.66% · Sep 1, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 5.89% · Sep 8, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.02% · Sep 15, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.29% · Sep 22, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.70% · Sep 29, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.66% · Oct 6, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.92% · Oct 13, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.94% · Oct 20, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 7.08% · Oct 27, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.95% · Nov 3, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 7.08% · Nov 10, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.61% · Nov 17, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.58% · Nov 23, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.49% · Dec 1, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.33% · Dec 8, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.31% · Dec 15, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.27% · Dec 22, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.42% · Dec 29, 202230-year fixed mortgage: 6.48% · Jan 5, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.33% · Jan 12, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.15% · Jan 19, 202330-year fixed mortgage: 6.13% · Jan 26, 202310-year Treasury: 2.68% · Jul 28, 202210-year Treasury: 2.67% · Jul 29, 202210-year Treasury: 2.60% · Aug 1, 202210-year Treasury: 2.75% · Aug 2, 202210-year Treasury: 2.73% · Aug 3, 202210-year Treasury: 2.68% · Aug 4, 202210-year Treasury: 2.83% · Aug 5, 202210-year Treasury: 2.77% · Aug 8, 202210-year Treasury: 2.80% · Aug 9, 202210-year Treasury: 2.78% · Aug 10, 202210-year Treasury: 2.87% · Aug 11, 202210-year Treasury: 2.84% · Aug 12, 202210-year Treasury: 2.79% · Aug 15, 202210-year Treasury: 2.82% · Aug 16, 202210-year Treasury: 2.89% · Aug 17, 202210-year Treasury: 2.88% · Aug 18, 202210-year Treasury: 2.98% · Aug 19, 202210-year Treasury: 3.03% · Aug 22, 202210-year Treasury: 3.05% · Aug 23, 202210-year Treasury: 3.11% · Aug 24, 202210-year Treasury: 3.03% · Aug 25, 202210-year Treasury: 3.04% · Aug 26, 202210-year Treasury: 3.12% · Aug 29, 202210-year Treasury: 3.11% · Aug 30, 202210-year Treasury: 3.15% · Aug 31, 202210-year Treasury: 3.26% · Sep 1, 202210-year Treasury: 3.20% · Sep 2, 202210-year Treasury: 3.33% · Sep 6, 202210-year Treasury: 3.27% · Sep 7, 202210-year Treasury: 3.29% · Sep 8, 202210-year Treasury: 3.33% · Sep 9, 202210-year Treasury: 3.37% · Sep 12, 202210-year Treasury: 3.42% · Sep 13, 202210-year Treasury: 3.41% · Sep 14, 202210-year Treasury: 3.45% · Sep 15, 202210-year Treasury: 3.45% · Sep 16, 202210-year Treasury: 3.49% · Sep 19, 202210-year Treasury: 3.57% · Sep 20, 202210-year Treasury: 3.51% · Sep 21, 202210-year Treasury: 3.70% · Sep 22, 202210-year Treasury: 3.69% · Sep 23, 202210-year Treasury: 3.88% · Sep 26, 202210-year Treasury: 3.97% · Sep 27, 202210-year Treasury: 3.72% · Sep 28, 202210-year Treasury: 3.76% · Sep 29, 202210-year Treasury: 3.83% · Sep 30, 202210-year Treasury: 3.67% · Oct 3, 202210-year Treasury: 3.62% · Oct 4, 202210-year Treasury: 3.76% · Oct 5, 202210-year Treasury: 3.83% · Oct 6, 202210-year Treasury: 3.89% · Oct 7, 202210-year Treasury: 3.93% · Oct 11, 202210-year Treasury: 3.91% · Oct 12, 202210-year Treasury: 3.97% · Oct 13, 202210-year Treasury: 4.00% · Oct 14, 202210-year Treasury: 4.02% · Oct 17, 202210-year Treasury: 4.01% · Oct 18, 202210-year Treasury: 4.14% · Oct 19, 202210-year Treasury: 4.24% · Oct 20, 202210-year Treasury: 4.21% · Oct 21, 202210-year Treasury: 4.25% · Oct 24, 202210-year Treasury: 4.10% · Oct 25, 202210-year Treasury: 4.04% · Oct 26, 202210-year Treasury: 3.96% · Oct 27, 202210-year Treasury: 4.02% · Oct 28, 202210-year Treasury: 4.10% · Oct 31, 202210-year Treasury: 4.07% · Nov 1, 202210-year Treasury: 4.10% · Nov 2, 202210-year Treasury: 4.14% · Nov 3, 202210-year Treasury: 4.17% · Nov 4, 202210-year Treasury: 4.22% · Nov 7, 202210-year Treasury: 4.14% · Nov 8, 202210-year Treasury: 4.12% · Nov 9, 202210-year Treasury: 3.82% · Nov 10, 202210-year Treasury: 3.88% · Nov 14, 202210-year Treasury: 3.80% · Nov 15, 202210-year Treasury: 3.67% · Nov 16, 202210-year Treasury: 3.77% · Nov 17, 202210-year Treasury: 3.82% · Nov 18, 202210-year Treasury: 3.83% · Nov 21, 202210-year Treasury: 3.76% · Nov 22, 202210-year Treasury: 3.71% · Nov 23, 202210-year Treasury: 3.68% · Nov 25, 202210-year Treasury: 3.69% · Nov 28, 202210-year Treasury: 3.75% · Nov 29, 202210-year Treasury: 3.68% · Nov 30, 202210-year Treasury: 3.53% · Dec 1, 202210-year Treasury: 3.51% · Dec 2, 202210-year Treasury: 3.60% · Dec 5, 202210-year Treasury: 3.51% · Dec 6, 202210-year Treasury: 3.42% · Dec 7, 202210-year Treasury: 3.48% · Dec 8, 202210-year Treasury: 3.57% · Dec 9, 202210-year Treasury: 3.61% · Dec 12, 202210-year Treasury: 3.51% · Dec 13, 202210-year Treasury: 3.49% · Dec 14, 202210-year Treasury: 3.44% · Dec 15, 202210-year Treasury: 3.48% · Dec 16, 202210-year Treasury: 3.57% · Dec 19, 202210-year Treasury: 3.69% · Dec 20, 202210-year Treasury: 3.68% · Dec 21, 202210-year Treasury: 3.67% · Dec 22, 202210-year Treasury: 3.75% · Dec 23, 202210-year Treasury: 3.84% · Dec 27, 202210-year Treasury: 3.88% · Dec 28, 202210-year Treasury: 3.83% · Dec 29, 202210-year Treasury: 3.88% · Dec 30, 202210-year Treasury: 3.79% · Jan 3, 202310-year Treasury: 3.69% · Jan 4, 202310-year Treasury: 3.71% · Jan 5, 202310-year Treasury: 3.55% · Jan 6, 202310-year Treasury: 3.53% · Jan 9, 202310-year Treasury: 3.61% · Jan 10, 202310-year Treasury: 3.54% · Jan 11, 202310-year Treasury: 3.43% · Jan 12, 202310-year Treasury: 3.49% · Jan 13, 202310-year Treasury: 3.53% · Jan 17, 202310-year Treasury: 3.37% · Jan 18, 202310-year Treasury: 3.39% · Jan 19, 202310-year Treasury: 3.48% · Jan 20, 202310-year Treasury: 3.52% · Jan 23, 202310-year Treasury: 3.46% · Jan 24, 202310-year Treasury: 3.46% · Jan 25, 202310-year Treasury: 3.49% · Jan 26, 202310-year Treasury: 3.52% · Jan 27, 2023Jul 28, 2022Oct 28, 2022Jan 28, 2023
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury125 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$2,012.05/month

7.08% · Oct 27, 2022

At the later reference$1,912.02/month

6.58% · Nov 23, 2022

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $100.04 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

How policy and mortgage rates connect →See current advertised mortgage options →