Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, May 2021

Personal income decreased $414.3 billion (2.0 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $436.3 billion (2.3 percent) and…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

THE PRIMARY SOURCE

Read the release

Original source →

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income decreased $414.3 billion (2.0 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $436.3 billion (2.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $2.9 billion (less than 0.1 percent).

Real DPI decreased 2.8 percent in May and Real PCE decreased 0.4 percent; goods decreased 2.0 percent and services increased 0.4 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent (table 9).

The decrease in personal income in May primarily reflected a decrease in government social benefits (table 3). Within government social benefits, "other" social benefits decreased as economic impact payments made to individuals from the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 continued, but at a lower level than in April. Unemployment insurance also decreased, led by decreases in payments from the Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program.

The $2.9 billion increase in current dollar PCE in May reflected an increase of $74.3 billion in spending for services that was mostly offset by a $71.5 billion decrease in spending for goods (table 3). Within services, increases were widespread, led by spending for recreation services, food services and accommodations, as well as housing and utilities. A decrease in spending on motor vehicles and parts was the leading contributor to the decrease in goods. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.

Personal outlays increased $5.5 billion in May (table 3). Personal saving was $2.29 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 12.4 percent (table 1).

The PCE price index for May increased 3.9 percent from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services (table 11). Energy prices increased 27.4 percent while food prices increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for May increased 3.4 percent from one year ago.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for January through April. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Jun 25, 2021.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierMay 26, 2021Publication referenceJun 25, 202130 days laterJul 25, 2021
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®3.00%Observed 3.02%Observed +2 bps vs. earlier reference2.78%Observed −24 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury1.58%Observed 1.54%Observed −4 bps vs. earlier reference1.30%Observed −24 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Mar 25, 2021 – Sep 25, 2021
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Jun 25, 2021Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.1.00%2.25%3.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 3.17% · Mar 25, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.18% · Apr 1, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.13% · Apr 8, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.04% · Apr 15, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.97% · Apr 22, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.98% · Apr 29, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.96% · May 6, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.94% · May 13, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.00% · May 20, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.95% · May 27, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.99% · Jun 3, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.96% · Jun 10, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.93% · Jun 17, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.02% · Jun 24, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.98% · Jul 1, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.90% · Jul 8, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.88% · Jul 15, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.78% · Jul 22, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.80% · Jul 29, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.77% · Aug 5, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.87% · Aug 12, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.86% · Aug 19, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.87% · Aug 26, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.87% · Sep 2, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.88% · Sep 9, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.86% · Sep 16, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.88% · Sep 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Mar 25, 202110-year Treasury: 1.67% · Mar 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.73% · Mar 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.73% · Mar 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.74% · Mar 31, 202110-year Treasury: 1.69% · Apr 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.72% · Apr 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.73% · Apr 5, 202110-year Treasury: 1.67% · Apr 6, 202110-year Treasury: 1.68% · Apr 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · Apr 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.67% · Apr 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.69% · Apr 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · Apr 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · Apr 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.56% · Apr 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.59% · Apr 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.61% · Apr 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · Apr 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.57% · Apr 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.57% · Apr 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · Apr 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · Apr 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Apr 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Apr 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.65% · Apr 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.65% · Apr 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · May 3, 202110-year Treasury: 1.61% · May 4, 202110-year Treasury: 1.59% · May 5, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · May 6, 202110-year Treasury: 1.60% · May 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · May 10, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · May 11, 202110-year Treasury: 1.69% · May 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.66% · May 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · May 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · May 17, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · May 18, 202110-year Treasury: 1.68% · May 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · May 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · May 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.61% · May 24, 202110-year Treasury: 1.56% · May 25, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · May 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.61% · May 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · May 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.62% · Jun 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.59% · Jun 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Jun 3, 202110-year Treasury: 1.56% · Jun 4, 202110-year Treasury: 1.57% · Jun 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.53% · Jun 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.50% · Jun 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.45% · Jun 10, 202110-year Treasury: 1.47% · Jun 11, 202110-year Treasury: 1.51% · Jun 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.51% · Jun 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.57% · Jun 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.52% · Jun 17, 202110-year Treasury: 1.45% · Jun 18, 202110-year Treasury: 1.50% · Jun 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Jun 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.50% · Jun 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.49% · Jun 24, 202110-year Treasury: 1.54% · Jun 25, 202110-year Treasury: 1.49% · Jun 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.49% · Jun 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.45% · Jun 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.48% · Jul 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.44% · Jul 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.37% · Jul 6, 202110-year Treasury: 1.33% · Jul 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.30% · Jul 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.37% · Jul 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.38% · Jul 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.42% · Jul 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.37% · Jul 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.31% · Jul 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.31% · Jul 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.19% · Jul 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.23% · Jul 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.30% · Jul 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.27% · Jul 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.30% · Jul 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.29% · Jul 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.25% · Jul 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.26% · Jul 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.28% · Jul 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.24% · Jul 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.20% · Aug 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.19% · Aug 3, 202110-year Treasury: 1.19% · Aug 4, 202110-year Treasury: 1.23% · Aug 5, 202110-year Treasury: 1.31% · Aug 6, 202110-year Treasury: 1.33% · Aug 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.36% · Aug 10, 202110-year Treasury: 1.35% · Aug 11, 202110-year Treasury: 1.36% · Aug 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.29% · Aug 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.26% · Aug 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.26% · Aug 17, 202110-year Treasury: 1.27% · Aug 18, 202110-year Treasury: 1.24% · Aug 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.26% · Aug 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.25% · Aug 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.29% · Aug 24, 202110-year Treasury: 1.35% · Aug 25, 202110-year Treasury: 1.34% · Aug 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.31% · Aug 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.29% · Aug 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.30% · Aug 31, 202110-year Treasury: 1.31% · Sep 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.29% · Sep 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.33% · Sep 3, 202110-year Treasury: 1.38% · Sep 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.35% · Sep 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.30% · Sep 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.35% · Sep 10, 202110-year Treasury: 1.33% · Sep 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.28% · Sep 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.31% · Sep 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.34% · Sep 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.37% · Sep 17, 202110-year Treasury: 1.31% · Sep 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.33% · Sep 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.32% · Sep 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.41% · Sep 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.47% · Sep 24, 2021Mar 25, 2021Jun 25, 2021Sep 25, 2021
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury129 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,268.05/month

3.02% · Jun 24, 2021

At the later reference$1,229.50/month

2.78% · Jul 22, 2021

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $38.55 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

How policy and mortgage rates connect →See current advertised mortgage options →