Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, December 2020

Personal income increased $116.6 billion (0.6 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $111.6 billion (0.6 percent) and…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $116.6 billion (0.6 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $111.6 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $27.9 billion (0.2 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in December and Real PCE decreased 0.6 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 9).

The increase in personal income in December primarily reflected increases in government social benefits, compensation, and personal dividend income that were partly offset by a decrease in proprietors’ income (table 3).

Within government social benefits, unemployment insurance increased reflecting an increase in pandemic unemployment compensation, the supplemental weekly payments to unemployment beneficiaries re-introduced through the CRRSA Act. There was also an increase in “other” social benefits, reflecting an increase in payments from the Provider Relief Fund to nonprofit institutions.

Within compensation, the main contributor was an increase in wages and salaries in service-producing industries based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics.

The increase in personal dividend income reflected data from company financial reports.

Within proprietors’ income, both farm and nonfarm decreased based on declines in Paycheck Protection Program loans to businesses. Farm proprietors’ income was also impacted by a decrease in payments under the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program.

The $79.8 billion decrease in real PCE in December reflected a decrease of $71.9 billion in spending for goods and a $17.6 billion decrease in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, durable goods (led by recreational goods and vehicles) and nondurable goods (led by food and beverages) both contributed to the decrease and were partly offset by an increase in spending for motor vehicles and parts (led by new light trucks). Within services, the largest contributors were decreases in spending for food services and accommodations (led by food services) and spending for health care (led by hospitals). These were partly offset by an increase in spending for household utilities (led by electricity). Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays decreased $39.2 billion in December (table 3). Personal saving was $2.38 trillion in December and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 13.7 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for October and November. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Jan 29, 2021.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierDec 30, 2020Publication referenceJan 29, 202130 days laterFeb 28, 2021
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®2.66%Observed 2.73%Observed +7 bps vs. earlier reference2.97%Observed +24 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury0.93%Observed 1.11%Observed +18 bps vs. earlier reference1.44%Observed +33 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Oct 29, 2020 – Apr 29, 2021
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Jan 29, 2021Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.0.50%2.00%3.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 2.81% · Oct 29, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.78% · Nov 5, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.84% · Nov 12, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.72% · Nov 19, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.72% · Nov 25, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.71% · Dec 3, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.71% · Dec 10, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.67% · Dec 17, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.66% · Dec 24, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.67% · Dec 31, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.65% · Jan 7, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.79% · Jan 14, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.77% · Jan 21, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.73% · Jan 28, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.73% · Feb 4, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.73% · Feb 11, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.81% · Feb 18, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.97% · Feb 25, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.02% · Mar 4, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.05% · Mar 11, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.09% · Mar 18, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.17% · Mar 25, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.18% · Apr 1, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.13% · Apr 8, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 3.04% · Apr 15, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.97% · Apr 22, 202130-year fixed mortgage: 2.98% · Apr 29, 202110-year Treasury: 0.85% · Oct 29, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Oct 30, 202010-year Treasury: 0.87% · Nov 2, 202010-year Treasury: 0.90% · Nov 3, 202010-year Treasury: 0.78% · Nov 4, 202010-year Treasury: 0.79% · Nov 5, 202010-year Treasury: 0.83% · Nov 6, 202010-year Treasury: 0.96% · Nov 9, 202010-year Treasury: 0.98% · Nov 10, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Nov 12, 202010-year Treasury: 0.89% · Nov 13, 202010-year Treasury: 0.91% · Nov 16, 202010-year Treasury: 0.87% · Nov 17, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Nov 18, 202010-year Treasury: 0.86% · Nov 19, 202010-year Treasury: 0.83% · Nov 20, 202010-year Treasury: 0.86% · Nov 23, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Nov 24, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Nov 25, 202010-year Treasury: 0.84% · Nov 27, 202010-year Treasury: 0.84% · Nov 30, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 1, 202010-year Treasury: 0.95% · Dec 2, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 3, 202010-year Treasury: 0.97% · Dec 4, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 7, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 8, 202010-year Treasury: 0.95% · Dec 9, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 10, 202010-year Treasury: 0.90% · Dec 11, 202010-year Treasury: 0.90% · Dec 14, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 15, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 16, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 17, 202010-year Treasury: 0.95% · Dec 18, 202010-year Treasury: 0.95% · Dec 21, 202010-year Treasury: 0.93% · Dec 22, 202010-year Treasury: 0.96% · Dec 23, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 24, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 28, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 29, 202010-year Treasury: 0.93% · Dec 30, 202010-year Treasury: 0.93% · Dec 31, 202010-year Treasury: 0.93% · Jan 4, 202110-year Treasury: 0.96% · Jan 5, 202110-year Treasury: 1.04% · Jan 6, 202110-year Treasury: 1.08% · Jan 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.13% · Jan 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.15% · Jan 11, 202110-year Treasury: 1.15% · Jan 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.10% · Jan 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.15% · Jan 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.11% · Jan 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.10% · Jan 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.10% · Jan 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.12% · Jan 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.10% · Jan 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.05% · Jan 25, 202110-year Treasury: 1.05% · Jan 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.04% · Jan 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.07% · Jan 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.11% · Jan 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.09% · Feb 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.12% · Feb 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.15% · Feb 3, 202110-year Treasury: 1.15% · Feb 4, 202110-year Treasury: 1.19% · Feb 5, 202110-year Treasury: 1.19% · Feb 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.18% · Feb 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.15% · Feb 10, 202110-year Treasury: 1.16% · Feb 11, 202110-year Treasury: 1.20% · Feb 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.30% · Feb 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.29% · Feb 17, 202110-year Treasury: 1.29% · Feb 18, 202110-year Treasury: 1.34% · Feb 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.37% · Feb 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.37% · Feb 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.38% · Feb 24, 202110-year Treasury: 1.54% · Feb 25, 202110-year Treasury: 1.44% · Feb 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.45% · Mar 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.42% · Mar 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.47% · Mar 3, 202110-year Treasury: 1.54% · Mar 4, 202110-year Treasury: 1.56% · Mar 5, 202110-year Treasury: 1.59% · Mar 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.55% · Mar 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.53% · Mar 10, 202110-year Treasury: 1.54% · Mar 11, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · Mar 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.62% · Mar 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.62% · Mar 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Mar 17, 202110-year Treasury: 1.71% · Mar 18, 202110-year Treasury: 1.74% · Mar 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.69% · Mar 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Mar 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.62% · Mar 24, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Mar 25, 202110-year Treasury: 1.67% · Mar 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.73% · Mar 29, 202110-year Treasury: 1.73% · Mar 30, 202110-year Treasury: 1.74% · Mar 31, 202110-year Treasury: 1.69% · Apr 1, 202110-year Treasury: 1.72% · Apr 2, 202110-year Treasury: 1.73% · Apr 5, 202110-year Treasury: 1.67% · Apr 6, 202110-year Treasury: 1.68% · Apr 7, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · Apr 8, 202110-year Treasury: 1.67% · Apr 9, 202110-year Treasury: 1.69% · Apr 12, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · Apr 13, 202110-year Treasury: 1.64% · Apr 14, 202110-year Treasury: 1.56% · Apr 15, 202110-year Treasury: 1.59% · Apr 16, 202110-year Treasury: 1.61% · Apr 19, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · Apr 20, 202110-year Treasury: 1.57% · Apr 21, 202110-year Treasury: 1.57% · Apr 22, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · Apr 23, 202110-year Treasury: 1.58% · Apr 26, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Apr 27, 202110-year Treasury: 1.63% · Apr 28, 202110-year Treasury: 1.65% · Apr 29, 2021Oct 29, 2020Jan 29, 2021Apr 29, 2021
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury125 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,221.55/month

2.73% · Jan 28, 2021

At the later reference$1,259.96/month

2.97% · Feb 25, 2021

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $38.42 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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