Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, August 2020

Personal income decreased $543.5 billion (2.7 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $570.9 billion (3.2 percent) and…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income decreased $543.5 billion (2.7 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $570.9 billion (3.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $141.1 billion (1.0 percent).

Real DPI decreased 3.5 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.7 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent..

The decrease in personal income in August was more than accounted for by a decrease in unemployment insurance benefits, based primarily on unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration (table 3). In particular, the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program which provided a temporary weekly supplemental payment of $600 for those receiving unemployment benefits expired on July 31. For more information, see “How will federal government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic affect unemployment insurance benefits?”.

Partially offsetting the decrease in unemployment insurance benefits was an increase in compensation in August. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $17.5 billion in August, following an increase of $14.5 billion in July. Temporary and intermittent Census decennial workers boosted government wages and salaries by $10.8 billion in August.

The $86.1 billion increase in real PCE in August reflected an increase of $87.9 billion in spending for services that was partly offset by a $10.3 billion decrease in spending for goods (table 7). Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were spending for food services and accommodations as well as health care. Spending for food services and accommodations was based on Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) data and Smith Travel Research data. Within health care, both hospital and outpatient services increased, based on volume data for hospital services and outpatient visits as well as credit card data. Within goods, the leading contributor to the decrease was spending for food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption, based on Census MRTS data. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $152.9 billion in August (table 3). Personal saving was $2.43 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 14.1 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for April through July. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Oct 1, 2020.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierSep 1, 2020Publication referenceOct 1, 202030 days laterOct 31, 2020
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®2.91%Observed 2.88%Observed −3 bps vs. earlier reference2.81%Observed −7 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury0.68%Observed 0.68%Observed Unchanged vs. earlier reference0.88%Observed +20 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Jul 1, 2020 – Jan 1, 2021
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Oct 1, 2020Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.0.50%2.00%3.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 3.07% · Jul 2, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 3.03% · Jul 9, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.98% · Jul 16, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 3.01% · Jul 23, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.99% · Jul 30, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.88% · Aug 6, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.96% · Aug 13, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.99% · Aug 20, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.91% · Aug 27, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.93% · Sep 3, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.86% · Sep 10, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.87% · Sep 17, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.90% · Sep 24, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.88% · Oct 1, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.87% · Oct 8, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.81% · Oct 15, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.80% · Oct 22, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.81% · Oct 29, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.78% · Nov 5, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.84% · Nov 12, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.72% · Nov 19, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.72% · Nov 25, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.71% · Dec 3, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.71% · Dec 10, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.67% · Dec 17, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.66% · Dec 24, 202030-year fixed mortgage: 2.67% · Dec 31, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Jul 1, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Jul 2, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Jul 6, 202010-year Treasury: 0.65% · Jul 7, 202010-year Treasury: 0.67% · Jul 8, 202010-year Treasury: 0.62% · Jul 9, 202010-year Treasury: 0.65% · Jul 10, 202010-year Treasury: 0.64% · Jul 13, 202010-year Treasury: 0.63% · Jul 14, 202010-year Treasury: 0.64% · Jul 15, 202010-year Treasury: 0.62% · Jul 16, 202010-year Treasury: 0.64% · Jul 17, 202010-year Treasury: 0.62% · Jul 20, 202010-year Treasury: 0.61% · Jul 21, 202010-year Treasury: 0.60% · Jul 22, 202010-year Treasury: 0.59% · Jul 23, 202010-year Treasury: 0.59% · Jul 24, 202010-year Treasury: 0.62% · Jul 27, 202010-year Treasury: 0.59% · Jul 28, 202010-year Treasury: 0.58% · Jul 29, 202010-year Treasury: 0.55% · Jul 30, 202010-year Treasury: 0.55% · Jul 31, 202010-year Treasury: 0.56% · Aug 3, 202010-year Treasury: 0.52% · Aug 4, 202010-year Treasury: 0.55% · Aug 5, 202010-year Treasury: 0.55% · Aug 6, 202010-year Treasury: 0.57% · Aug 7, 202010-year Treasury: 0.59% · Aug 10, 202010-year Treasury: 0.64% · Aug 11, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Aug 12, 202010-year Treasury: 0.71% · Aug 13, 202010-year Treasury: 0.71% · Aug 14, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Aug 17, 202010-year Treasury: 0.67% · Aug 18, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Aug 19, 202010-year Treasury: 0.65% · Aug 20, 202010-year Treasury: 0.64% · Aug 21, 202010-year Treasury: 0.65% · Aug 24, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Aug 25, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Aug 26, 202010-year Treasury: 0.74% · Aug 27, 202010-year Treasury: 0.74% · Aug 28, 202010-year Treasury: 0.72% · Aug 31, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Sep 1, 202010-year Treasury: 0.66% · Sep 2, 202010-year Treasury: 0.63% · Sep 3, 202010-year Treasury: 0.72% · Sep 4, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Sep 8, 202010-year Treasury: 0.71% · Sep 9, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Sep 10, 202010-year Treasury: 0.67% · Sep 11, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Sep 14, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Sep 15, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Sep 16, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Sep 17, 202010-year Treasury: 0.70% · Sep 18, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Sep 21, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Sep 22, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Sep 23, 202010-year Treasury: 0.67% · Sep 24, 202010-year Treasury: 0.66% · Sep 25, 202010-year Treasury: 0.67% · Sep 28, 202010-year Treasury: 0.66% · Sep 29, 202010-year Treasury: 0.69% · Sep 30, 202010-year Treasury: 0.68% · Oct 1, 202010-year Treasury: 0.70% · Oct 2, 202010-year Treasury: 0.78% · Oct 5, 202010-year Treasury: 0.76% · Oct 6, 202010-year Treasury: 0.81% · Oct 7, 202010-year Treasury: 0.78% · Oct 8, 202010-year Treasury: 0.79% · Oct 9, 202010-year Treasury: 0.74% · Oct 13, 202010-year Treasury: 0.73% · Oct 14, 202010-year Treasury: 0.74% · Oct 15, 202010-year Treasury: 0.76% · Oct 16, 202010-year Treasury: 0.78% · Oct 19, 202010-year Treasury: 0.81% · Oct 20, 202010-year Treasury: 0.83% · Oct 21, 202010-year Treasury: 0.87% · Oct 22, 202010-year Treasury: 0.85% · Oct 23, 202010-year Treasury: 0.81% · Oct 26, 202010-year Treasury: 0.79% · Oct 27, 202010-year Treasury: 0.79% · Oct 28, 202010-year Treasury: 0.85% · Oct 29, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Oct 30, 202010-year Treasury: 0.87% · Nov 2, 202010-year Treasury: 0.90% · Nov 3, 202010-year Treasury: 0.78% · Nov 4, 202010-year Treasury: 0.79% · Nov 5, 202010-year Treasury: 0.83% · Nov 6, 202010-year Treasury: 0.96% · Nov 9, 202010-year Treasury: 0.98% · Nov 10, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Nov 12, 202010-year Treasury: 0.89% · Nov 13, 202010-year Treasury: 0.91% · Nov 16, 202010-year Treasury: 0.87% · Nov 17, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Nov 18, 202010-year Treasury: 0.86% · Nov 19, 202010-year Treasury: 0.83% · Nov 20, 202010-year Treasury: 0.86% · Nov 23, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Nov 24, 202010-year Treasury: 0.88% · Nov 25, 202010-year Treasury: 0.84% · Nov 27, 202010-year Treasury: 0.84% · Nov 30, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 1, 202010-year Treasury: 0.95% · Dec 2, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 3, 202010-year Treasury: 0.97% · Dec 4, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 7, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 8, 202010-year Treasury: 0.95% · Dec 9, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 10, 202010-year Treasury: 0.90% · Dec 11, 202010-year Treasury: 0.90% · Dec 14, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 15, 202010-year Treasury: 0.92% · Dec 16, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 17, 202010-year Treasury: 0.95% · Dec 18, 202010-year Treasury: 0.95% · Dec 21, 202010-year Treasury: 0.93% · Dec 22, 202010-year Treasury: 0.96% · Dec 23, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 24, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 28, 202010-year Treasury: 0.94% · Dec 29, 202010-year Treasury: 0.93% · Dec 30, 202010-year Treasury: 0.93% · Dec 31, 2020Jul 1, 2020Oct 1, 2020Jan 1, 2021
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury126 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,245.48/month

2.88% · Oct 1, 2020

At the later reference$1,234.28/month

2.81% · Oct 29, 2020

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $11.20 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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