Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, November 2018

Personal income increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

THE PRIMARY SOURCE

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.4 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in November and real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

The increase in personal income in November primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries and in farm proprietors’ income (table 3) that were partially offset by decreases in personal dividend income and social security benefits. Farm proprietors’ income increased $14.9 billion in November, which included subsidy payments associated with the Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program.

The $42.5 billion increase in real PCE in November reflected an increase of $32.6 billion in spending for goods and a $13.2 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, recreational goods and vehicles was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for household electricity and gas. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $56.6 billion in November (table 3). Personal saving was $944.2 billion in November and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.0 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July through October. The percent change from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE -- revised and previously published in last month's release -- are shown below.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Dec 21, 2018.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierNov 21, 2018Publication referenceDec 21, 201830 days laterJan 20, 2019
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®4.81%Observed 4.62%Observed −19 bps vs. earlier reference4.45%Observed −17 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury3.06%Observed 2.79%Observed −27 bps vs. earlier reference2.79%Observed Unchanged vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Sep 21, 2018 – Mar 21, 2019
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Dec 21, 2018Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.2.50%3.75%5.00%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 4.72% · Sep 27, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.71% · Oct 4, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.90% · Oct 11, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.85% · Oct 18, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.86% · Oct 25, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.83% · Nov 1, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.94% · Nov 8, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.94% · Nov 15, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.81% · Nov 21, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.81% · Nov 29, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.75% · Dec 6, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.63% · Dec 13, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.62% · Dec 20, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.55% · Dec 27, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.51% · Jan 3, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.45% · Jan 10, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.45% · Jan 17, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.45% · Jan 24, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.46% · Jan 31, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.41% · Feb 7, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.37% · Feb 14, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.35% · Feb 21, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.35% · Feb 28, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.41% · Mar 7, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.31% · Mar 14, 201930-year fixed mortgage: 4.28% · Mar 21, 201910-year Treasury: 3.07% · Sep 21, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Sep 24, 201810-year Treasury: 3.10% · Sep 25, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Sep 26, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Sep 27, 201810-year Treasury: 3.05% · Sep 28, 201810-year Treasury: 3.09% · Oct 1, 201810-year Treasury: 3.05% · Oct 2, 201810-year Treasury: 3.15% · Oct 3, 201810-year Treasury: 3.19% · Oct 4, 201810-year Treasury: 3.23% · Oct 5, 201810-year Treasury: 3.21% · Oct 9, 201810-year Treasury: 3.22% · Oct 10, 201810-year Treasury: 3.14% · Oct 11, 201810-year Treasury: 3.15% · Oct 12, 201810-year Treasury: 3.16% · Oct 15, 201810-year Treasury: 3.16% · Oct 16, 201810-year Treasury: 3.19% · Oct 17, 201810-year Treasury: 3.17% · Oct 18, 201810-year Treasury: 3.20% · Oct 19, 201810-year Treasury: 3.20% · Oct 22, 201810-year Treasury: 3.17% · Oct 23, 201810-year Treasury: 3.10% · Oct 24, 201810-year Treasury: 3.14% · Oct 25, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Oct 26, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Oct 29, 201810-year Treasury: 3.12% · Oct 30, 201810-year Treasury: 3.15% · Oct 31, 201810-year Treasury: 3.14% · Nov 1, 201810-year Treasury: 3.22% · Nov 2, 201810-year Treasury: 3.20% · Nov 5, 201810-year Treasury: 3.22% · Nov 6, 201810-year Treasury: 3.22% · Nov 7, 201810-year Treasury: 3.24% · Nov 8, 201810-year Treasury: 3.19% · Nov 9, 201810-year Treasury: 3.14% · Nov 13, 201810-year Treasury: 3.12% · Nov 14, 201810-year Treasury: 3.11% · Nov 15, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Nov 16, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 19, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 20, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 21, 201810-year Treasury: 3.05% · Nov 23, 201810-year Treasury: 3.07% · Nov 26, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 27, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 28, 201810-year Treasury: 3.03% · Nov 29, 201810-year Treasury: 3.01% · Nov 30, 201810-year Treasury: 2.98% · Dec 3, 201810-year Treasury: 2.91% · Dec 4, 201810-year Treasury: 2.87% · Dec 6, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Dec 7, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Dec 10, 201810-year Treasury: 2.89% · Dec 11, 201810-year Treasury: 2.91% · Dec 12, 201810-year Treasury: 2.91% · Dec 13, 201810-year Treasury: 2.89% · Dec 14, 201810-year Treasury: 2.86% · Dec 17, 201810-year Treasury: 2.82% · Dec 18, 201810-year Treasury: 2.77% · Dec 19, 201810-year Treasury: 2.79% · Dec 20, 201810-year Treasury: 2.79% · Dec 21, 201810-year Treasury: 2.74% · Dec 24, 201810-year Treasury: 2.81% · Dec 26, 201810-year Treasury: 2.77% · Dec 27, 201810-year Treasury: 2.72% · Dec 28, 201810-year Treasury: 2.69% · Dec 31, 201810-year Treasury: 2.66% · Jan 2, 201910-year Treasury: 2.56% · Jan 3, 201910-year Treasury: 2.67% · Jan 4, 201910-year Treasury: 2.70% · Jan 7, 201910-year Treasury: 2.73% · Jan 8, 201910-year Treasury: 2.74% · Jan 9, 201910-year Treasury: 2.74% · Jan 10, 201910-year Treasury: 2.71% · Jan 11, 201910-year Treasury: 2.71% · Jan 14, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Jan 15, 201910-year Treasury: 2.73% · Jan 16, 201910-year Treasury: 2.75% · Jan 17, 201910-year Treasury: 2.79% · Jan 18, 201910-year Treasury: 2.74% · Jan 22, 201910-year Treasury: 2.76% · Jan 23, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Jan 24, 201910-year Treasury: 2.76% · Jan 25, 201910-year Treasury: 2.75% · Jan 28, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Jan 29, 201910-year Treasury: 2.70% · Jan 30, 201910-year Treasury: 2.63% · Jan 31, 201910-year Treasury: 2.70% · Feb 1, 201910-year Treasury: 2.73% · Feb 4, 201910-year Treasury: 2.71% · Feb 5, 201910-year Treasury: 2.70% · Feb 6, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 7, 201910-year Treasury: 2.63% · Feb 8, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 11, 201910-year Treasury: 2.68% · Feb 12, 201910-year Treasury: 2.71% · Feb 13, 201910-year Treasury: 2.66% · Feb 14, 201910-year Treasury: 2.66% · Feb 15, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 19, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 20, 201910-year Treasury: 2.69% · Feb 21, 201910-year Treasury: 2.65% · Feb 22, 201910-year Treasury: 2.67% · Feb 25, 201910-year Treasury: 2.64% · Feb 26, 201910-year Treasury: 2.69% · Feb 27, 201910-year Treasury: 2.73% · Feb 28, 201910-year Treasury: 2.76% · Mar 1, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Mar 4, 201910-year Treasury: 2.72% · Mar 5, 201910-year Treasury: 2.69% · Mar 6, 201910-year Treasury: 2.64% · Mar 7, 201910-year Treasury: 2.62% · Mar 8, 201910-year Treasury: 2.64% · Mar 11, 201910-year Treasury: 2.61% · Mar 12, 201910-year Treasury: 2.61% · Mar 13, 201910-year Treasury: 2.63% · Mar 14, 201910-year Treasury: 2.59% · Mar 15, 201910-year Treasury: 2.60% · Mar 18, 201910-year Treasury: 2.61% · Mar 19, 201910-year Treasury: 2.54% · Mar 20, 201910-year Treasury: 2.54% · Mar 21, 2019Sep 21, 2018Dec 21, 2018Mar 21, 2019
30-year fixed mortgage26 observations10-year Treasury122 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,541.52/month

4.62% · Dec 20, 2018

At the later reference$1,511.16/month

4.45% · Jan 17, 2019

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $30.36 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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