Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Inflation · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2017

Personal income increased $63.0 billion (0.4 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $40.1 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Personal income increased $63.0 billion (0.4 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $40.1 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $22.2 billion (0.2 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in January and Real PCE decreased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.

The increase in personal income in January primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries and personal current transfer receipts that were partially offset by an increase in contributions for government social insurance, a subtraction in the calculation of personal income (table 3).

The decrease in real PCE in January primarily reflected decreases in spending for services, notably utilities, and durable goods (table 7).

Personal outlays increased $24.0 billion in January (table 3). Personal saving was $795.7 billion in January and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 5.5 percent (table 1).

2016 Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income (table 6) increased 3.6 percent in 2016 (that is, from the 2015 annual level to the 2016 annual level), compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2015. DPI increased 3.9 percent in 2016, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent in 2015. In 2016, PCE increased 3.8 percent, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent in 2015.

Real DPI increased 2.8 percent in 2016, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent in 2015. Real PCE (table 8) increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent.

Annual estimates of personal income and disposable personal income were revised up 0.1 percentage point from the estimates presented last month; annual estimates of personal consumption expenditures were unrevised.

Updates

Estimates have been updated for July through December. The percent change from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI and PCE -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

QCEW Data Included in the Third Quarter of 2016

This news release includes revised estimates of wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance for July through September 2016 (third quarter). These estimates reflect the incorporation of the most recently available third-quarter wage and salary tabulations from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Mar 1, 2017.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Separate income, spending and PCE inflation

Personal Income and Outlays combines income, spending and price measures. Disposable personal income is income after personal current taxes; “real” income and spending remove price changes. PCE inflation differs from CPI in coverage, weights and calculation, including purchases made on households’ behalf. Distinguish monthly from twelve-month price changes and the all-items index from the measure excluding food and energy. Income and spending dollar levels are presented at seasonally adjusted annual rates; that convention does not annualize a reported monthly inflation change. Check the release date and revisions when comparing historical figures. The benchmark window cannot isolate this report’s effect on borrowing costs. BEA income and outlays definitions and methods; BEA explanation of PCE–CPI differences.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierJan 30, 2017Publication referenceMar 1, 201730 days laterMar 31, 2017
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®4.19%Observed 4.16%Observed −3 bps vs. earlier reference4.14%Observed −2 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury2.49%Observed 2.46%Observed −3 bps vs. earlier reference2.40%Observed −6 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Dec 1, 2016 – Jun 1, 2017
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Mar 1, 2017Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.2.00%3.25%4.50%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 4.08% · Dec 1, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 4.13% · Dec 8, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 4.16% · Dec 15, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 4.30% · Dec 22, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 4.32% · Dec 29, 201630-year fixed mortgage: 4.20% · Jan 5, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.12% · Jan 12, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.09% · Jan 19, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.19% · Jan 26, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.19% · Feb 2, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.17% · Feb 9, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.15% · Feb 16, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.16% · Feb 23, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.10% · Mar 2, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.21% · Mar 9, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.30% · Mar 16, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.23% · Mar 23, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.14% · Mar 30, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.10% · Apr 6, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.08% · Apr 13, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 3.97% · Apr 20, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.03% · Apr 27, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.02% · May 4, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.05% · May 11, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 4.02% · May 18, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 3.95% · May 25, 201730-year fixed mortgage: 3.94% · Jun 1, 201710-year Treasury: 2.45% · Dec 1, 201610-year Treasury: 2.40% · Dec 2, 201610-year Treasury: 2.39% · Dec 5, 201610-year Treasury: 2.39% · Dec 6, 201610-year Treasury: 2.34% · Dec 7, 201610-year Treasury: 2.40% · Dec 8, 201610-year Treasury: 2.47% · Dec 9, 201610-year Treasury: 2.49% · Dec 12, 201610-year Treasury: 2.48% · Dec 13, 201610-year Treasury: 2.54% · Dec 14, 201610-year Treasury: 2.60% · Dec 15, 201610-year Treasury: 2.60% · Dec 16, 201610-year Treasury: 2.54% · Dec 19, 201610-year Treasury: 2.57% · Dec 20, 201610-year Treasury: 2.55% · Dec 21, 201610-year Treasury: 2.55% · Dec 22, 201610-year Treasury: 2.55% · Dec 23, 201610-year Treasury: 2.57% · Dec 27, 201610-year Treasury: 2.51% · Dec 28, 201610-year Treasury: 2.49% · Dec 29, 201610-year Treasury: 2.45% · Dec 30, 201610-year Treasury: 2.45% · Jan 3, 201710-year Treasury: 2.46% · Jan 4, 201710-year Treasury: 2.37% · Jan 5, 201710-year Treasury: 2.42% · Jan 6, 201710-year Treasury: 2.38% · Jan 9, 201710-year Treasury: 2.38% · Jan 10, 201710-year Treasury: 2.38% · Jan 11, 201710-year Treasury: 2.36% · Jan 12, 201710-year Treasury: 2.40% · Jan 13, 201710-year Treasury: 2.33% · Jan 17, 201710-year Treasury: 2.42% · Jan 18, 201710-year Treasury: 2.47% · Jan 19, 201710-year Treasury: 2.48% · Jan 20, 201710-year Treasury: 2.41% · Jan 23, 201710-year Treasury: 2.47% · Jan 24, 201710-year Treasury: 2.53% · Jan 25, 201710-year Treasury: 2.51% · Jan 26, 201710-year Treasury: 2.49% · Jan 27, 201710-year Treasury: 2.49% · Jan 30, 201710-year Treasury: 2.45% · Jan 31, 201710-year Treasury: 2.48% · Feb 1, 201710-year Treasury: 2.48% · Feb 2, 201710-year Treasury: 2.49% · Feb 3, 201710-year Treasury: 2.42% · Feb 6, 201710-year Treasury: 2.40% · Feb 7, 201710-year Treasury: 2.34% · Feb 8, 201710-year Treasury: 2.40% · Feb 9, 201710-year Treasury: 2.41% · Feb 10, 201710-year Treasury: 2.43% · Feb 13, 201710-year Treasury: 2.47% · Feb 14, 201710-year Treasury: 2.51% · Feb 15, 201710-year Treasury: 2.45% · Feb 16, 201710-year Treasury: 2.42% · Feb 17, 201710-year Treasury: 2.43% · Feb 21, 201710-year Treasury: 2.42% · Feb 22, 201710-year Treasury: 2.38% · Feb 23, 201710-year Treasury: 2.31% · Feb 24, 201710-year Treasury: 2.36% · Feb 27, 201710-year Treasury: 2.36% · Feb 28, 201710-year Treasury: 2.46% · Mar 1, 201710-year Treasury: 2.49% · Mar 2, 201710-year Treasury: 2.49% · Mar 3, 201710-year Treasury: 2.49% · Mar 6, 201710-year Treasury: 2.52% · Mar 7, 201710-year Treasury: 2.57% · Mar 8, 201710-year Treasury: 2.60% · Mar 9, 201710-year Treasury: 2.58% · Mar 10, 201710-year Treasury: 2.62% · Mar 13, 201710-year Treasury: 2.60% · Mar 14, 201710-year Treasury: 2.51% · Mar 15, 201710-year Treasury: 2.53% · Mar 16, 201710-year Treasury: 2.50% · Mar 17, 201710-year Treasury: 2.47% · Mar 20, 201710-year Treasury: 2.43% · Mar 21, 201710-year Treasury: 2.40% · Mar 22, 201710-year Treasury: 2.41% · Mar 23, 201710-year Treasury: 2.40% · Mar 24, 201710-year Treasury: 2.38% · Mar 27, 201710-year Treasury: 2.42% · Mar 28, 201710-year Treasury: 2.39% · Mar 29, 201710-year Treasury: 2.42% · Mar 30, 201710-year Treasury: 2.40% · Mar 31, 201710-year Treasury: 2.35% · Apr 3, 201710-year Treasury: 2.36% · Apr 4, 201710-year Treasury: 2.34% · Apr 5, 201710-year Treasury: 2.34% · Apr 6, 201710-year Treasury: 2.38% · Apr 7, 201710-year Treasury: 2.37% · Apr 10, 201710-year Treasury: 2.32% · Apr 11, 201710-year Treasury: 2.28% · Apr 12, 201710-year Treasury: 2.24% · Apr 13, 201710-year Treasury: 2.26% · Apr 17, 201710-year Treasury: 2.18% · Apr 18, 201710-year Treasury: 2.21% · Apr 19, 201710-year Treasury: 2.24% · Apr 20, 201710-year Treasury: 2.24% · Apr 21, 201710-year Treasury: 2.28% · Apr 24, 201710-year Treasury: 2.35% · Apr 25, 201710-year Treasury: 2.32% · Apr 26, 201710-year Treasury: 2.30% · Apr 27, 201710-year Treasury: 2.29% · Apr 28, 201710-year Treasury: 2.33% · May 1, 201710-year Treasury: 2.29% · May 2, 201710-year Treasury: 2.33% · May 3, 201710-year Treasury: 2.36% · May 4, 201710-year Treasury: 2.36% · May 5, 201710-year Treasury: 2.39% · May 8, 201710-year Treasury: 2.42% · May 9, 201710-year Treasury: 2.41% · May 10, 201710-year Treasury: 2.39% · May 11, 201710-year Treasury: 2.33% · May 12, 201710-year Treasury: 2.34% · May 15, 201710-year Treasury: 2.33% · May 16, 201710-year Treasury: 2.22% · May 17, 201710-year Treasury: 2.23% · May 18, 201710-year Treasury: 2.23% · May 19, 201710-year Treasury: 2.25% · May 22, 201710-year Treasury: 2.29% · May 23, 201710-year Treasury: 2.26% · May 24, 201710-year Treasury: 2.25% · May 25, 201710-year Treasury: 2.25% · May 26, 201710-year Treasury: 2.21% · May 30, 201710-year Treasury: 2.21% · May 31, 201710-year Treasury: 2.21% · Jun 1, 2017Dec 1, 2016Mar 1, 2017Jun 1, 2017
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury125 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,460.06/month

4.16% · Feb 23, 2017

At the later reference$1,456.56/month

4.14% · Mar 30, 2017

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $3.49 lower per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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