Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In…
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis2 min read
Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →
Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.
The advance report for the fourth quarter of 2025, originally scheduled for January 29, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. For more information, refer to the "Technical Notes" below.
Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment. The decrease in imports was smaller than in the prior quarter.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the third quarter.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the third quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent. (Refer to “Technical Notes” below for information on how BEA imputed missing Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) October prices.)
GDP for 2025
Real GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2025 (from the 2024 annual level to the 2025 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in 2024. The increase in real GDP in 2025 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in 2025, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in 2024. The PCE price index increased 2.6 percent, the same increase as in 2024. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent.
Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.
MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context
The mortgage market around this release
This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.
Distinguish annualized growth from growth over a year
Real GDP measures inflation-adjusted production. BEA usually reports quarter-to-quarter growth at an annualized pace: the result if that quarter’s growth continued for four quarters, rather than the actual change over the past year. Check whether the article is an advance, second or third estimate and which quarter it covers. Additional data and later annual updates can change earlier estimates. Read consumer spending, investment and other components alongside the headline. The benchmark window supplies historical context; it does not identify the report’s effect on mortgage rates. BEA GDP definitions, statistical conventions and revisions.
Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.
What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan
At the publication reference$1,800.58/month
6.01% · Feb 19, 2026
At the later reference$1,841.30/month
6.22% · Mar 19, 2026
The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $40.72 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.
Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.
Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®: available observations from Apr 2, 1971 through Nov 5, 2026. Cached history snapshot. History retrieved or verified Nov 11, 2026.
U.S. Department of the Treasury: available observations from Jan 4, 2016 through Nov 10, 2026. Cached history snapshot. History retrieved or verified Nov 11, 2026.
The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.
Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.