Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP…
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis3 min read
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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete source data, will be released on November 27, 2024.
The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributors were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts. Within services, the leading contributors were health care (led by outpatient services) as well as food services and accommodations. The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive). The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending. The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive).
Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent at an annual rate, or $333.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.35 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP increased 5.6 percent, or $392.6 billion (tables 1 and 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent.
Personal Income
Current-dollar personal income increased $221.3 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $315.7 billion in the second quarter. The increase primarily reflected an increase in compensation (table 8).
Disposable personal income increased $166.0 billion, or 3.1 percent, in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $260.4 billion, or 5.0 percent, in the second quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent.
Personal saving was $1.04 trillion in the third quarter, compared with $1.13 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the second quarter.
The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. Information on the source data and key assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note and a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file posted with the release. The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 27, 2024. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows.
Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.
MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context
The mortgage market around this release
This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.
Distinguish annualized growth from growth over a year
Real GDP measures inflation-adjusted production. BEA usually reports quarter-to-quarter growth at an annualized pace: the result if that quarter’s growth continued for four quarters, rather than the actual change over the past year. Check whether the article is an advance, second or third estimate and which quarter it covers. Additional data and later annual updates can change earlier estimates. Read consumer spending, investment and other components alongside the headline. The benchmark window supplies historical context; it does not identify the report’s effect on mortgage rates. BEA GDP definitions, statistical conventions and revisions.
Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.
What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan
At the publication reference$1,904.10/month
6.54% · Oct 24, 2024
At the later reference$1,957.77/month
6.81% · Nov 27, 2024
The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $53.67 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.
Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.
Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®: available observations from Apr 2, 1971 through Nov 5, 2026. Cached history snapshot. History retrieved or verified Nov 11, 2026.
U.S. Department of the Treasury: available observations from Jan 4, 2016 through Nov 10, 2026. Cached history snapshot. History retrieved or verified Nov 11, 2026.
The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.
Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.