Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate)

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete source data, will be released on May 30, 2024.

The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the increase primarily reflected increases in health care as well as financial services and insurance. Within goods, the decrease primarily reflected decreases in motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods. Within residential fixed investment, the increase was led by brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs as well as new single-family housing construction. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment mainly reflected an increase in intellectual property products. The increase in state and local government spending reflected an increase in compensation of state and local government employees. The decrease in inventory investment primarily reflected decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing. Within imports, the increase reflected increases in both goods and services.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent at an annual rate, or $327.5 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $28.28 trillion. In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 5.1 percent, or $346.9 billion (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $407.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $230.2 billion in the fourth quarter. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $226.2 billion, or 4.5 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $190.4 billion, or 3.8 percent, in the fourth quarter. Increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts were partly offset by an increase in personal current taxes, which are a subtraction in the calculation of DPI. Real disposable personal income increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent.

Personal saving was $755.7 billion in the first quarter, compared with $815.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. Information on the source data and key assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note and a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file posted with the release. The second estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2024. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows.