Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), Second Quarter 2023 and Comprehensive Update

Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised).

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in GDP was also 2.1 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (refer to "Updates to GDP").

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in nonresidential fixed investment, consumer spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports decreased (table 2).

Compared to the first quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in consumer spending, a downturn in exports, and a deceleration in federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, and a smaller decrease in residential investment. Imports turned down.

Current dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent at an annual rate, or $249.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $27.06 trillion, a downward revision in change of $19.4 billion (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in the second quarter, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage point (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, the same as in the previous estimate. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, also unrevised.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $239.6 billion in the second quarter, an upward revision of $7.4 billion from the previous estimate. The increase in the second quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries), personal income receipts on assets (both personal dividend income and personal interest income), and personal current transfer receipts (led by government social benefits), and rental income of persons (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $296.5 billion, or 6.1 percent, in the second quarter, an upward revision of $12.1 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 3.5 percent, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point.

Personal saving was $1.04 trillion in the second quarter, an upward revision in change of $40.5 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 5.2 percent, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point.

Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the previous estimate. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.4 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point (table 1).

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $6.9 billion in the second quarter, an upward revision of $17.5 billion from the previous estimate (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $54.2 billion in the second quarter, a downward revision of $6.3 billion from the previous estimate. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $39.0 billion, an upward revision of $21.9 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $22.1 billion, an upward revision of $1.9 billion. In the second quarter, receipts increased $25.8 billion, and payments increased $3.7 billion.

Updates to GDP

With the third estimate, downward revisions to consumer spending and federal government spending were partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows.

Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts

Today's release presents results from the comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts (NEAs), which include the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and the Industry Economic Accounts (IEAs). The update includes revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, GDI, and their major components. Current-dollar measures of GDP and related components are revised from the first quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2023. GDI and selected income components are revised from the first quarter of 1979 through the first quarter of 2023.

The reference year for chain-type quantity and price indexes and for the chain-dollar estimates is updated to 2017 from 2012. More information on the 2023 Comprehensive Update is found in the "Preview of the 2023 Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts" in the Survey of Current Business.

Additional GDP by industry statistics will be released this fall. BEA will send an advisory with the exact date and time when available.

The updated estimates show that real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent from 2017 to 2022, 0.1 percentage point higher than the previously published estimate. Over the same period, real GDI increased at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than previously published. The average of real GDP and real GDI over the same period was 2.2 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than previously published.

For the period of economic expansion from the second quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, revised up 0.1 percentage point from the previously published estimates. For the period of economic contraction from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 17.5 percent, revised up 0.7 percentage point from the previously published estimates. For the period of economic expansion from the second quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2023, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than previously estimated.

Previously published estimates, which are superseded by today's release, are found in BEA's archives.

Updates for the First Quarter of 2023

For the first quarter of 2023, real GDP is now estimated to have increased 2.2 percent (table 1), an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the previously published estimate. An upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.

The price index for gross domestic purchases is now estimated to have increased 3.6 percent, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point. The PCE price index increased 4.2 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than previously published. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 5.0 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than previously published.

Current-dollar personal income is now estimated to have increased $369.8 billion in the first quarter, an upward revision of $91.9 billion from the previous estimate. The revision primarily reflected an upward revision to compensation (led by private wages and salaries) (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $701.8 billion, or 15.5 percent, in the first quarter, an upward revision of $113.9 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 10.8 percent, an upward revision of 2.3 percentage points.

Personal saving was $948.2 billion in the first quarter, an upward revision in change of $132.9 billion. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.8 percent in the first quarter, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point.

Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 0.5 percent in the first quarter (table 1); in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDI was estimated to have decreased 1.8 percent. The leading contributor to the upward revision was compensation, based primarily on new first-quarter wage and salary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The average of real GDP and real GDI is now estimated to have increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter; in the previously published estimates, the average of GDP and GDI was estimated to have increased 0.1 percent.

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) is now estimated to have decreased $83.3 billion in the first quarter, an upward revison of $38.2 billion (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $17.3 billion, an upward revision of $26.7 billion. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $92.7 billion, an upward revision of $10.2 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $7.9 billion, an upward revision of $1.3 billion. In the first quarter, receipts are now estimated to have increased $13.1 billion, and payments are now estimated to have increased $21.1 billion.