Wednesday, November 11, 2026Mortgage news · Rates & market context

Economy · ORIGINAL ECONOMIC RELEASE

Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2018 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2018 (revised estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP…

Historical releaseThe figures below describe the original reporting period. They are not today’s rates or a current economic forecast.Today’s market brief →

THE PRIMARY SOURCE

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Historical release narrative reproduced from the official public-domain U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis source. Statistical tables, charts, standard technical appendices and administrative material are omitted; formatting is adapted for reading. Figures retain the release's original vintage and may have been revised. Consult the linked source for the complete release and current data.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 4.2 percent. With this third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; a downward revision to private inventory investment was offset by small upward revisions to most other GDP components. Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down slightly (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent in the first quarter (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports decreased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter reflected accelerations in PCE, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, as well as a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports decreased after increasing in the first quarter.

Current-dollar GDP increased 7.6 percent, or $370.9 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $20.41 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.3 percent, or $209.2 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.0 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.

Updates to GDP

The percent change in real GDP was unrevised from the second estimate, reflecting a downward revision to private inventory investment that was offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending, PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and residential fixed investment. Imports were revised down slightly. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

Corporate Profits (table 10)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $65.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $26.7 billion in the first quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $16.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $9.3 billion in the firstquarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $53.0 billion, compared with an increase of $32.3 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $4.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $3.7 billion. In the second quarter, receipts increased $0.5 billion, and payments increased $5.0 billion.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Original release Sep 27, 2018.

Archived Nov 11, 2026. Source reuse policy. Formatting has been adapted for reading; the source’s conclusions remain attributed to its publisher.

MortgageRates.news analysis · Historical context

The mortgage market around this release

This original analysis is separate from the source article. It compares observed benchmarks around ; historical averages and yields are not current mortgage offers.

Distinguish annualized growth from growth over a year

Real GDP measures inflation-adjusted production. BEA usually reports quarter-to-quarter growth at an annualized pace: the result if that quarter’s growth continued for four quarters, rather than the actual change over the past year. Check whether the article is an advance, second or third estimate and which quarter it covers. Additional data and later annual updates can change earlier estimates. Read consumer spending, investment and other components alongside the headline. The benchmark window supplies historical context; it does not identify the report’s effect on mortgage rates. BEA GDP definitions, statistical conventions and revisions.

Nearest published observation on or before each target date
Benchmark30 days earlierAug 28, 2018Publication referenceSep 27, 201830 days laterOct 27, 2018
30-year fixed mortgageNational weekly averageFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®4.51%Observed 4.72%Observed +21 bps vs. earlier reference4.86%Observed +14 bps vs. publication reference
10-year TreasuryDaily par yieldU.S. Department of the Treasury2.88%Observed 3.06%Observed +18 bps vs. earlier reference3.08%Observed +2 bps vs. publication reference

Calendar references, not an intraday reaction. A same-day market observation may have been published after a morning release. These figures do not show what was known at its exact publication time. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage point; changes use the actual dated observations shown.

Six months around publication

Jun 27, 2018 – Dec 27, 2018
Historical mortgage and Treasury observations around Sep 27, 2018Each dot is a published observation. No missing values are estimated. The dashed vertical line marks the article’s publication calendar date. Rates and yields are percentages.2.50%3.75%5.00%Publication date30-year fixed mortgage: 4.55% · Jun 28, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.52% · Jul 5, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.53% · Jul 12, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.52% · Jul 19, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.54% · Jul 26, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.60% · Aug 2, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.59% · Aug 9, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.53% · Aug 16, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.51% · Aug 23, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.52% · Aug 30, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.54% · Sep 6, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.60% · Sep 13, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.65% · Sep 20, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.72% · Sep 27, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.71% · Oct 4, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.90% · Oct 11, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.85% · Oct 18, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.86% · Oct 25, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.83% · Nov 1, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.94% · Nov 8, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.94% · Nov 15, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.81% · Nov 21, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.81% · Nov 29, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.75% · Dec 6, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.63% · Dec 13, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.62% · Dec 20, 201830-year fixed mortgage: 4.55% · Dec 27, 201810-year Treasury: 2.83% · Jun 27, 201810-year Treasury: 2.84% · Jun 28, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Jun 29, 201810-year Treasury: 2.87% · Jul 2, 201810-year Treasury: 2.83% · Jul 3, 201810-year Treasury: 2.84% · Jul 5, 201810-year Treasury: 2.82% · Jul 6, 201810-year Treasury: 2.86% · Jul 9, 201810-year Treasury: 2.87% · Jul 10, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Jul 11, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Jul 12, 201810-year Treasury: 2.83% · Jul 13, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Jul 16, 201810-year Treasury: 2.86% · Jul 17, 201810-year Treasury: 2.88% · Jul 18, 201810-year Treasury: 2.84% · Jul 19, 201810-year Treasury: 2.89% · Jul 20, 201810-year Treasury: 2.96% · Jul 23, 201810-year Treasury: 2.95% · Jul 24, 201810-year Treasury: 2.94% · Jul 25, 201810-year Treasury: 2.98% · Jul 26, 201810-year Treasury: 2.96% · Jul 27, 201810-year Treasury: 2.98% · Jul 30, 201810-year Treasury: 2.96% · Jul 31, 201810-year Treasury: 3.00% · Aug 1, 201810-year Treasury: 2.98% · Aug 2, 201810-year Treasury: 2.95% · Aug 3, 201810-year Treasury: 2.94% · Aug 6, 201810-year Treasury: 2.98% · Aug 7, 201810-year Treasury: 2.96% · Aug 8, 201810-year Treasury: 2.93% · Aug 9, 201810-year Treasury: 2.87% · Aug 10, 201810-year Treasury: 2.88% · Aug 13, 201810-year Treasury: 2.89% · Aug 14, 201810-year Treasury: 2.86% · Aug 15, 201810-year Treasury: 2.87% · Aug 16, 201810-year Treasury: 2.87% · Aug 17, 201810-year Treasury: 2.82% · Aug 20, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Aug 21, 201810-year Treasury: 2.82% · Aug 22, 201810-year Treasury: 2.82% · Aug 23, 201810-year Treasury: 2.82% · Aug 24, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Aug 27, 201810-year Treasury: 2.88% · Aug 28, 201810-year Treasury: 2.89% · Aug 29, 201810-year Treasury: 2.86% · Aug 30, 201810-year Treasury: 2.86% · Aug 31, 201810-year Treasury: 2.90% · Sep 4, 201810-year Treasury: 2.90% · Sep 5, 201810-year Treasury: 2.88% · Sep 6, 201810-year Treasury: 2.94% · Sep 7, 201810-year Treasury: 2.94% · Sep 10, 201810-year Treasury: 2.98% · Sep 11, 201810-year Treasury: 2.97% · Sep 12, 201810-year Treasury: 2.97% · Sep 13, 201810-year Treasury: 2.99% · Sep 14, 201810-year Treasury: 2.99% · Sep 17, 201810-year Treasury: 3.05% · Sep 18, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Sep 19, 201810-year Treasury: 3.07% · Sep 20, 201810-year Treasury: 3.07% · Sep 21, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Sep 24, 201810-year Treasury: 3.10% · Sep 25, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Sep 26, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Sep 27, 201810-year Treasury: 3.05% · Sep 28, 201810-year Treasury: 3.09% · Oct 1, 201810-year Treasury: 3.05% · Oct 2, 201810-year Treasury: 3.15% · Oct 3, 201810-year Treasury: 3.19% · Oct 4, 201810-year Treasury: 3.23% · Oct 5, 201810-year Treasury: 3.21% · Oct 9, 201810-year Treasury: 3.22% · Oct 10, 201810-year Treasury: 3.14% · Oct 11, 201810-year Treasury: 3.15% · Oct 12, 201810-year Treasury: 3.16% · Oct 15, 201810-year Treasury: 3.16% · Oct 16, 201810-year Treasury: 3.19% · Oct 17, 201810-year Treasury: 3.17% · Oct 18, 201810-year Treasury: 3.20% · Oct 19, 201810-year Treasury: 3.20% · Oct 22, 201810-year Treasury: 3.17% · Oct 23, 201810-year Treasury: 3.10% · Oct 24, 201810-year Treasury: 3.14% · Oct 25, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Oct 26, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Oct 29, 201810-year Treasury: 3.12% · Oct 30, 201810-year Treasury: 3.15% · Oct 31, 201810-year Treasury: 3.14% · Nov 1, 201810-year Treasury: 3.22% · Nov 2, 201810-year Treasury: 3.20% · Nov 5, 201810-year Treasury: 3.22% · Nov 6, 201810-year Treasury: 3.22% · Nov 7, 201810-year Treasury: 3.24% · Nov 8, 201810-year Treasury: 3.19% · Nov 9, 201810-year Treasury: 3.14% · Nov 13, 201810-year Treasury: 3.12% · Nov 14, 201810-year Treasury: 3.11% · Nov 15, 201810-year Treasury: 3.08% · Nov 16, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 19, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 20, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 21, 201810-year Treasury: 3.05% · Nov 23, 201810-year Treasury: 3.07% · Nov 26, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 27, 201810-year Treasury: 3.06% · Nov 28, 201810-year Treasury: 3.03% · Nov 29, 201810-year Treasury: 3.01% · Nov 30, 201810-year Treasury: 2.98% · Dec 3, 201810-year Treasury: 2.91% · Dec 4, 201810-year Treasury: 2.87% · Dec 6, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Dec 7, 201810-year Treasury: 2.85% · Dec 10, 201810-year Treasury: 2.89% · Dec 11, 201810-year Treasury: 2.91% · Dec 12, 201810-year Treasury: 2.91% · Dec 13, 201810-year Treasury: 2.89% · Dec 14, 201810-year Treasury: 2.86% · Dec 17, 201810-year Treasury: 2.82% · Dec 18, 201810-year Treasury: 2.77% · Dec 19, 201810-year Treasury: 2.79% · Dec 20, 201810-year Treasury: 2.79% · Dec 21, 201810-year Treasury: 2.74% · Dec 24, 201810-year Treasury: 2.81% · Dec 26, 201810-year Treasury: 2.77% · Dec 27, 2018Jun 27, 2018Sep 27, 2018Dec 27, 2018
30-year fixed mortgage27 observations10-year Treasury125 observations
Dots show published observations only. Missing dates remain blank, with no interpolation. The series have different publication schedules and measure different markets.

What that benchmark difference would mean for a $300,000 loan

At the publication reference$1,559.52/month

4.72% · Sep 27, 2018

At the later reference$1,584.89/month

4.86% · Oct 25, 2018

The illustrative principal-and-interest payment is $25.37 higher per month. This holds the loan amount and term constant to show the arithmetic effect of the benchmark difference.

Assumptions: two separate hypothetical $300,000 loans, each fully amortizing over 30 years with 360 monthly payments and its stated fixed interest rate. Excludes points, lender fees, taxes, insurance, association charges and other costs. PMMS is a national average, not an APR or a personalized rate offer. These are not two payments on one existing loan.

Sources, historical coverage and calculation limits

The 30-day comparisons use calendar days. Each cell selects the last published observation on or before its target; no rates are synthesized for missing dates. Gaps greater than seven days for daily Treasury data or fourteen days for weekly mortgage data are marked unavailable. Forward comparisons require the date to have arrived and source coverage to extend through it.

Historical files may contain revisions and do not reconstruct precisely what every market participant knew at the time. Freddie Mac changed its PMMS collection methodology in November 2022. Cross-period comparisons should account for that change. These windows include other news and cannot establish causation or forecast the next rate move.

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